Monday

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
ATS: 137-95-7 (+49.9)
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)



Nuggets

The Lakers got a huge emotional win yesterday. They had to play a great game to beat the Mavs. They were 13-25 from three point range, and Kobe carried them. Kobe was unbelievable in the game last night. He certainly silenced Cuban and his amnesty comments. Tonight, Kobe cannot single handedly beat the Nuggets. They have a great one-on-one defender in Iguodala, and the Nuggets have a deep lineup that will never let up off the pedal.

The Lakers are just 2-11 SU against the top five teams in the Western Conference this season. The Lakers have an eight man rotation. They have the third worst bench in the league, and that is based on season long (while now they are missing even more depth). They are calling on their aging starters to play long minutes. The Lakers played in Denver on no rest earlier this season, and the Nuggets dropped 126 on them and beat them by twelve.

Denver is a tough place to play. The Nuggets push the pace even better at home than they do on the road. They are 23-3 at home this season, and they outscore their opponents at home by well over 9 points per 100 possessions. Most likely due to their pace and partly due to the altitude, their defense is better at home as well - 5 points per 100 possessions better, they force 2% more turnovers at home (which is a jump from 24th on the road in the league to 3rd at home). Since the start of 2013, they have forced their opponents into 16.9 turnovers per game, which leads to a lot of fast break points. The lead the league in fast break points since the calendar year 2013. The Lakers are fifth to last in the league in turnovers per game, and that may be problematic tonight against Denver.

The Nuggets play a relentless style and are constantly attacking the rim. The Nuggets have a huge edge at home, and they want to secure a first round playoff series at home. I think they are fully capable of catching up to Memphis, but they need to win every game, especially every home game.

When Kobe guaranteed the Laker?s playoff berth, he named some teams that he wasn?t afraid of facing in the playoffs : ?It's not a question of if we make the playoffs. We will. And when we get there, I have no fear of anyone ? Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver ... whoever. I have zero nervousness about that.?

Tonight, the Nuggets might just inject a little fear into the fearless.


Nuggets -6.5 x2


Good luck...
 
Last edited:

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
In case you don't actually watch NBA games, here's what the Nuggets are all about. They had 14 dunks against the Bobcats :0074

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/0Ym6Felw6sc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

HighFlyingKilla

Registered User
Forum Member
Dec 13, 2005
1,772
11
0
In case you don't actually watch NBA games, here's what the Nuggets are all about. They had 14 dunks against the Bobcats :0074

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/0Ym6Felw6sc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I love watching this team play.

Even the blowouts are entertaining.
 

grindstone

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
1,150
4
0
Totally agree with Denv great write up as usual. Also played these tonight in case your wondering

ATL/DET U196

ATL -3

LAL/DENV O218

WASH/TOR U190.5

Sorry very busy today GL hope to see the window later with you
 
A

azbob

Guest
Thanks for posting your plays.

The Heat are still in the +150 to +185 range to win the NBA Championship. What do you think of that value as I don't think anyone in the East can beat them and even with the resting regimen, SA still has some issues with age and injury. OKC looks to have regressed...Denver may emerge but, Miami still seems superior to any team in the West.
 

Old School

OVR
Forum Member
Mar 19, 2006
38,213
375
83
74
for those interested

todays......

19:05 2013 NBA Championship - Outright
  • Miami Heat +150
  • Oklahoma City Thunder +300
  • San Antonio Spurs +450
  • Los Angeles Clippers +900
  • Indiana Pacers +1800
  • Los Angeles Lakers +2000
  • Chicago Bulls +2000
  • New York Knicks +2000
  • Memphis +3000
  • Brooklyn Nets +3000
  • Boston Celtics +3300
  • Denver Nuggets +3300
  • Atlanta +6600
  • Golden State Warriors +8000
  • Houston Rockets +10000
  • Utah Jazz +10000
  • Dallas Mavericks +12500
  • Milwaukee Bucks +20000
  • Toronto Raptors +20000
  • Philadelphia +25000
  • Detroit Pistons +25000
  • Portland Trailblazers +40000
 

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
Totally agree with Denv great write up as usual. Also played these tonight in case your wondering

ATL/DET U196

ATL -3

LAL/DENV O218

WASH/TOR U190.5

Sorry very busy today GL hope to see the window later with you

I'm tailing you on the Detroit under - came across some real nice trends suggesting that game goes under tonight.

Road favorites off a SU win as a road dog of 4 or more are 39-61-2 O/U.

Since the 2006 season, teams coming off two losses against the same team 17-38 O/U.

I don't really cap totals off trends, but I thought these were both pretty solid and made sense.

Good luck on all!
 

ivabign

Tosser
Forum Member
Feb 14, 2002
3,492
7
0
Southern California
When Kobe guaranteed the Laker?s playoff berth, he named some teams that he wasn?t afraid of facing in the playoffs : ?It's not a question of if we make the playoffs. We will. And when we get there, I have no fear of anyone ? Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver ... whoever. I have zero nervousness about that.?

Tonight, the Nuggets might just inject a little fear into the fearless.


Nuggets -6.5 x2


Good luck...

I am with you on your Denver play tonight - but as for fear? Not so much. I do still think that by the end of this season, if the Lakers make the playoffs, that Kobe and company have more than a puncher's chance to take a game from Denver in Denver - and then hold home court. Tonight they will run, but playoff basketball is a different animal.

Good luck on your play.
 

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
Thanks for posting your plays.

The Heat are still in the +150 to +185 range to win the NBA Championship. What do you think of that value as I don't think anyone in the East can beat them and even with the resting regimen, SA still has some issues with age and injury. OKC looks to have regressed...Denver may emerge but, Miami still seems superior to any team in the West.

azbob - the Heat have a great chance at repeating this year, but I don't see much value in a future that is only +150 to +185. What if someone important gets hurt in between now and the playoffs? I like to take real long shots when it comes to futures. I think there is a lot more value in someone who is a lot bigger payout, than +150 or so - you can make that in one game betting a dog, but it is a lot harder to make +500 or more on one game with one team.

I already bet the Pacers at +1450 for 2 units to come out of the east some time ago, and I bet them to match up vs. the Thunder in the finals at +2675 for one unit. I think the Pacers are the only team in the East that has a chance against the Heat, and I like the return I'm getting on the chance they pull the upset.

In the East, Heat or Pacers I think are the only two. In the West, Thunder, Spurs, or Clippers (long shot). Right now my lean would be most towards the Spurs, but the Thunder are so good, just hard to say. A little value in Denver, but I don't see them beating the Spurs or Thunder in a series.

Good luck! DuckDogs started a thread called "futures", and if anyone else has thoughts on it, let us know!!
 

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
I am with you on your Denver play tonight - but as for fear? Not so much. I do still think that by the end of this season, if the Lakers make the playoffs, that Kobe and company have more than a puncher's chance to take a game from Denver in Denver - and then hold home court. Tonight they will run, but playoff basketball is a different animal.

Good luck on your play.

The "fear" line was just my dramatic close. It sounded good, I thought. I was frightened... I try to bring a little creative edge to my write ups, as I aspire someday to be an actual writer.

The playoffs are totally different. Today, is today.

:0074
 

Happy Hippo

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2006
4,794
120
0
any thought on the denver/lakers total

Would lean toward the total - lots of good cappers on the over tonight, but I'm not playing it. The Nuggets team total over might be the safest bet. If you watched the Lakers play "defense" yesterday, I can't imagine it will get much better tonight.

good luck!
 

ivabign

Tosser
Forum Member
Feb 14, 2002
3,492
7
0
Southern California
The "fear" line was just my dramatic close. It sounded good, I thought. I was frightened... I try to bring a little creative edge to my write ups, as I aspire someday to be an actual writer.

The playoffs are totally different. Today, is today.

:0074

I enjoy your prose. I try to have a light edge to my posts here on the forum as well. As for writing professionally - best wishes - I also put pen to paper (not really, it is Word for Mac 2011) for fun and profit. The world is an interesting place.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top