ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTION ( 10-21 SO FAR )
BCS Championship Game 5 Star Ohio State over LSU
BCS Championship Game 5 Star Ohio State over LSU
MONDAYS SERVICE PLAYS LSU/OHIO STATE ONLY
- Thread starter pigskin
- Start date
MARC LAWRENCE 10* GAME OF THE YEAR
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10* Ohio State
*****Bought and paid for*****
**Confirmed**
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MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTION
(13-18)
BCS Championship
Ohio st by 3
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio St Dog in No. 1 vs No. 2 ranked games is 18-3 ATS S/ 1985
LSU Miles: 13-0 SU & 11-1 ATS vs non-con opp w/ Tigers
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10* Ohio State
*****Bought and paid for*****
**Confirmed**
----------------------------------------------------------------------
MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTION
(13-18)
BCS Championship
Ohio st by 3
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio St Dog in No. 1 vs No. 2 ranked games is 18-3 ATS S/ 1985
LSU Miles: 13-0 SU & 11-1 ATS vs non-con opp w/ Tigers
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MIGHTY! QUINN (14-15 in bowls)
LSU - 4
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LSU - 4
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
JOHN CAMPBELL FROM COVERS ( 17-13 bowl record )
BCS championship game
Ohio State vs. LSU (-4 ?, 51)
It?s time to put my amazing streak on the line. The past two seasons I have correctly picked the against-the-spread winner in the BCS championship game.
This year I like Ohio State. You might be wondering how I can pick the Bucks against the SEC?s best team after taking the Gators to cover last year. Well, because it?s my column, dammit. And I think this year?s Buckeyes squad is just one of those teams that wins football games however it needs to.
Last year the Buckeyes had the distraction of the Heisman race hanging over their heads and I always wonder what impact that has on a team. They also have a better running game this year with Chris Wells emerging as the kind of power go-to back you need if you want to win a lot in the Big Ten. The defense is better too, ranking first in scoring defense as opposed to fifth a year ago.
As for the Tigers, they could very well be the best team in the nation. I just don?t think it will be by five points if they are.
Final score prediction: Ohio State 23, LSU 20
BCS championship game
Ohio State vs. LSU (-4 ?, 51)
It?s time to put my amazing streak on the line. The past two seasons I have correctly picked the against-the-spread winner in the BCS championship game.
This year I like Ohio State. You might be wondering how I can pick the Bucks against the SEC?s best team after taking the Gators to cover last year. Well, because it?s my column, dammit. And I think this year?s Buckeyes squad is just one of those teams that wins football games however it needs to.
Last year the Buckeyes had the distraction of the Heisman race hanging over their heads and I always wonder what impact that has on a team. They also have a better running game this year with Chris Wells emerging as the kind of power go-to back you need if you want to win a lot in the Big Ten. The defense is better too, ranking first in scoring defense as opposed to fifth a year ago.
As for the Tigers, they could very well be the best team in the nation. I just don?t think it will be by five points if they are.
Final score prediction: Ohio State 23, LSU 20
JEFFERSONSPORTS
4-2 yesterday
ALL RECORDS SINCE OCTOBER 6th
NCAA FOOTBALL 27-10 (10-3 in bowl games)
OVERALL RECORD IN ALL SPORTS
177-126 in 3 months. OCT 6th to JAN. 6th
NCAA FOOTBALL EARLY RELEASE
OHIO ST.+4
4-2 yesterday
ALL RECORDS SINCE OCTOBER 6th
NCAA FOOTBALL 27-10 (10-3 in bowl games)
OVERALL RECORD IN ALL SPORTS
177-126 in 3 months. OCT 6th to JAN. 6th
NCAA FOOTBALL EARLY RELEASE
OHIO ST.+4
BRYAN LEONARD (Covers experts)
BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
REASON FOR PICK: LSU (-3.5) over Ohio State
Having this game played so late in the season gives us a two fold edge for the Tigers. First off is one which is often talked about and that is the lack of a conference tournament in the Big 10. That means Ohio State hasn?t played since November 17th while LSU played on December 1st against Tennessee. We saw last year what such a long layoff could do to a team and Ohio State falls into the same scenario again this season. The second edge is the so called hype edge. Before the bowl parings were finalized everyone couldn?t wait to bet against this overrated Buckeyes squad. Once it was known that they would oppose LSU everyone we talked to here in Las Vegas assumed the line would be 7 points. Well the line opened at LSU favored by 6 and all the money has since come in on the Buckeyes. Face it, we all love to root for the underdog and there have been plenty of feel good stories about this Ohio State team. A common theme is that last year was an anomaly and they won?t make the same mistakes again. But the truth is that last year?s Ohio State team was much better than this year?s version. Sure the 2007 version has the better defense but offensively this team isn?t even close to the talent they had on hand a year ago.
One of our favorite handicapping angles during bowl season is to play on a team who is playing in their home state. It?s been a long time winner and this year once again it has provided a nice 3-2 60% payback. Teams simply are more comfortable playing near their home and the LSU Tigers are very familiar with the Superdome. The Tigers were the preseason favorite along with USC to win the national title. But injuries hurt both those teams as the season progressed. But now LSU is as healthy as they have been all season, and we have already seen what USC has done when getting their injured back in the lineup.
We give the Ohio State defense a slight edge in this match-up as LSU also brings to the table an excellent defense. But offensively the Tigers are much better. The dual threat behind center should really give the buckeyes fits. Hey buckeyes fans remember Juice Williams? While Ohio State enters this game as the underdog it?s LSU that has more to prove. All season long they were thought of as an underachieving group. Now in their own backyard they can prove their worth.
PLAY LSU
BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
REASON FOR PICK: LSU (-3.5) over Ohio State
Having this game played so late in the season gives us a two fold edge for the Tigers. First off is one which is often talked about and that is the lack of a conference tournament in the Big 10. That means Ohio State hasn?t played since November 17th while LSU played on December 1st against Tennessee. We saw last year what such a long layoff could do to a team and Ohio State falls into the same scenario again this season. The second edge is the so called hype edge. Before the bowl parings were finalized everyone couldn?t wait to bet against this overrated Buckeyes squad. Once it was known that they would oppose LSU everyone we talked to here in Las Vegas assumed the line would be 7 points. Well the line opened at LSU favored by 6 and all the money has since come in on the Buckeyes. Face it, we all love to root for the underdog and there have been plenty of feel good stories about this Ohio State team. A common theme is that last year was an anomaly and they won?t make the same mistakes again. But the truth is that last year?s Ohio State team was much better than this year?s version. Sure the 2007 version has the better defense but offensively this team isn?t even close to the talent they had on hand a year ago.
One of our favorite handicapping angles during bowl season is to play on a team who is playing in their home state. It?s been a long time winner and this year once again it has provided a nice 3-2 60% payback. Teams simply are more comfortable playing near their home and the LSU Tigers are very familiar with the Superdome. The Tigers were the preseason favorite along with USC to win the national title. But injuries hurt both those teams as the season progressed. But now LSU is as healthy as they have been all season, and we have already seen what USC has done when getting their injured back in the lineup.
We give the Ohio State defense a slight edge in this match-up as LSU also brings to the table an excellent defense. But offensively the Tigers are much better. The dual threat behind center should really give the buckeyes fits. Hey buckeyes fans remember Juice Williams? While Ohio State enters this game as the underdog it?s LSU that has more to prove. All season long they were thought of as an underachieving group. Now in their own backyard they can prove their worth.
PLAY LSU
BRANDON LANG
MONDAY
15 Dime OHIO STATE
NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.
Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.
I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.
Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.
So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.
If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.
I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.
I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.
So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.
OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.
First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.
A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.
Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.
The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.
In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.
The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.
Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years
Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.
The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.
I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.
Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.
Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.
This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.
A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.
Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.
Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.
With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.
In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.
Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.
Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.
Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.
Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.
That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.
Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.
Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.
9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St
MONDAY
15 Dime OHIO STATE
NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.
Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.
I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.
Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.
So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.
If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.
I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.
I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.
So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.
OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.
First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.
A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.
Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.
The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.
In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.
The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.
Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years
Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.
The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.
I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.
Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.
Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.
This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.
A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.
Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.
Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.
With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.
In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.
Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.
Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.
Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.
Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.
That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.
Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.
Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.
9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St
DR. BOB
I have a Strong Opinion on the Under (47 1/2) in the BCS Championship game and no opinion on the side.
BCS Championship Game
LSU (-3.5) 21 Ohio St. 17
05:00 PM Pacific, 07-Jan-08
It?s pretty well known that Ohio State is 0-9 lifetime in bowl games against SEC teams, including last year?s humiliating loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game, but that really doesn?t mean much to me. The SEC is perceived to be a much better conference than the Big 10 in recent years, but Big 10 teams are actually 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS against SEC teams in bowl games the last 4 years (1-1 this year with Wisconsin losing to Tennessee and Michigan beating up on Florida). The fact that Michigan beat Florida despite being -4 in turnover margin is an indication that the difference between the quality of the Big 10 and the SEC isn?t as much as it is perceived to be. So, forget about the hype of the SEC being a dominant conference and focus on the teams. My math model adjusts for strength of opponents, which is affected by the strength of the conference a team plays in and the math on this game reveals that Ohio State was no worse than LSU this season.
The question is whether Ohio State can compete with LSU in this game, as the Tigers are healthier on defense and at the receiver position than they were for parts of the regular season. LSU?s offense was very inconsistent this season, playing 4 games in which they averaged less than 5.0 yards per play and having 4 games in which they averaged 7.0 yppl or more. Overall the Tigers averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The rushing attack was outstanding, averaging 236 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp), but quarterback Matt Flynn was mediocre. Flynn averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and the Tigers appear to be a better team when Ryan Perrilloux is at quarterback. Perrilloux averaged 8.4 yppp on 79 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and that includes 7.6 yppp in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee when Flynn was injured (Tennessee would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team). Flynn was hindered a bit by early season injuries to the receivers Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet, as Byrd missed games 1 and 4 and Doucet was out for 5 games from game 3 through 7. Flynn?s numbers were better from game 8 on when his entire receiving corps was intact, as Flynn averaged 6.5 yppp his final 5 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB. I?ll assume that?s the level Flynn will play in this game and that Perrilloux probably won?t see much time, unless the Tigers need him near the goal line for a running option. Overall the Tigers rate at 1.0 yppl better than average on offense heading into this game.
Ohio State?s defense rates at 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 3.6 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Ohio State completely shut down every better than average pass attack that they faced this season, and only Illinois averaged more than 5.0 yppp against the Buckeyes. The reason that the Illini managed to average 6.0 yppp was because they couldn?t sack the mobile Juice Williams (Williams averaged only 6.4 yards per pass attempt but was sacked just once). Matt Flynn is not that mobile, so he won?t be able to buy time to find open receivers and there won?t be too many open receivers for Flynn to find. Flynn had mixed results against the good pass defenses he?s faced this year, averaging 8.8 yppp against Virginia Tech and 8.1 yppp against Auburn, but managing just 3.0 yppp against South Carolina and 3.2 yppp against Kentucky. Ohio State?s pass defense is so much better than any team that LSU faced this year (the Buckeyes allowed just 3.6 yppp to teams that would average 6.2 yppp), but Flynn is capable of posting decent numbers and is also potentially going to be horrible. LSU?s offensive production will probably depend on their ability to run against an Ohio State defense that gave up just 3.6 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense). Ohio State played two teams that are very good running teams and the Buckeyes gave up a combined 5.1 yprp to Washington and Illinois (who would combine to average 6.1 yprp), so they were only 1.0 yprp better than average against good running teams. Those numbers are misleading, however, as Washington and Illinois both have running quarterbacks that got a lot of those yards. Ohio State held All-Big 10 back Rashard Mendenhall to just 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 ypr) and held Washington star Louis Rankin to 42 yards on 14 carries as quarterback Jake Locker scrambled for 107 yards on 13 rushes. Flynn is a decent runner, but certainly not in the class of Williams and Locker, so don?t imply that Ohio State?s relative troubles with Washington and Illinois apply to LSU?s good rushing attack. LSU may actually run for less than expected in this game given that the Tigers, who are 1.3 yprp better than average overall, were only 0.9 yprp better than average against the 7 better than average run defenses that they faced (5.2 yprp against Miss State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee ? who would combine to allow 4.3 yprp to an average team). Ohio State?s defense is 0.9 yppl better than LSU?s offense and my math model projects just 303 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
The key to this game is how well LSU?s defense plays. The Tigers were a dominating unit for most of the season, but star DT Glenn Dorsey (the college defensive player of the year) was banged up late in the season and LB Barry Beckwith missed a couple of games late in the season. LSU?s defense was noticeably weaker in their final 3 games, giving up a combined 6.4 yppl to Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. Reports are that the Tigers are fully healthy on defense and will be back to their dominating form for this game. LSU was 1.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Tigers were 1.6 yppl better than average in their first 10 games and I?ll assume that they will be that good in this game. If that is the case then the Tigers have a 1.3 yppl advantage over an Ohio State offense that was just 0.3 yppl better than average with Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Ohio State was 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they faced (5.3 yppl against Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan, who would allow 4.7 yppl to an average team). However, the Buckeyes averaged only 4.0 yppl against Michigan, who was the best defensive team that they faced this season. Ohio State should have an even tougher time moving the ball against LSU?s defense and my math model projects just 274 yards at 4.1 yppl is the Tigers defense is indeed as good as it was in their first 10 games (which I?m assuming it is). Boeckman is also a bit turnover prone (12 interceptions in just 273 passes, 4.4%) and the math model projects a 5.3% interception rate for Boeckman in this game, so the Buckeyes could be in trouble if they get down by a couple of scores and are forced to throw more than normal against LSU?s attacking defense.
Overall, my math model favored LSU by just ? a point using stats for each team for the entire season (with 2 points being give to LSU for playing in Tiger-friendly New Orleans), but that projection changes after adjusting Flynn?s stats for games in which he had all his receivers and using only LSU?s first 10 games on defense. I now have LSU by 4 points with a total of just 38 ? points, as it is pretty clear that the defenses have big advantages in this game and scoring will not be easy (unless there are some defensive touchdowns). Underdogs of 3 points or more are 6-2 straight up in BCS Championship games, including Ohio State?s 31-24 upset of Miami-Florida as a 12 point dog in 2003. The Buckeyes will certainly be motivated after hearing how they can?t compete with an SEC team for the past 6 weeks and Ohio State is better equipped to compete this season given that they?re defense is the best in the nation this year after being a very young group last season. Remember, the Buckeyes? defense was 0.3 yppl better than LSU?s defense was when it was healthy. I can see both teams winning this game and my math model suggests that there is no value in betting the side in this game. The better play is on the under given that both defenses have significant advantages and I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion in this game at 45 points or higher and I have no opinion on the side.
I have a Strong Opinion on the Under (47 1/2) in the BCS Championship game and no opinion on the side.
BCS Championship Game
LSU (-3.5) 21 Ohio St. 17
05:00 PM Pacific, 07-Jan-08
It?s pretty well known that Ohio State is 0-9 lifetime in bowl games against SEC teams, including last year?s humiliating loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game, but that really doesn?t mean much to me. The SEC is perceived to be a much better conference than the Big 10 in recent years, but Big 10 teams are actually 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS against SEC teams in bowl games the last 4 years (1-1 this year with Wisconsin losing to Tennessee and Michigan beating up on Florida). The fact that Michigan beat Florida despite being -4 in turnover margin is an indication that the difference between the quality of the Big 10 and the SEC isn?t as much as it is perceived to be. So, forget about the hype of the SEC being a dominant conference and focus on the teams. My math model adjusts for strength of opponents, which is affected by the strength of the conference a team plays in and the math on this game reveals that Ohio State was no worse than LSU this season.
The question is whether Ohio State can compete with LSU in this game, as the Tigers are healthier on defense and at the receiver position than they were for parts of the regular season. LSU?s offense was very inconsistent this season, playing 4 games in which they averaged less than 5.0 yards per play and having 4 games in which they averaged 7.0 yppl or more. Overall the Tigers averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The rushing attack was outstanding, averaging 236 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp), but quarterback Matt Flynn was mediocre. Flynn averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and the Tigers appear to be a better team when Ryan Perrilloux is at quarterback. Perrilloux averaged 8.4 yppp on 79 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and that includes 7.6 yppp in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee when Flynn was injured (Tennessee would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team). Flynn was hindered a bit by early season injuries to the receivers Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet, as Byrd missed games 1 and 4 and Doucet was out for 5 games from game 3 through 7. Flynn?s numbers were better from game 8 on when his entire receiving corps was intact, as Flynn averaged 6.5 yppp his final 5 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB. I?ll assume that?s the level Flynn will play in this game and that Perrilloux probably won?t see much time, unless the Tigers need him near the goal line for a running option. Overall the Tigers rate at 1.0 yppl better than average on offense heading into this game.
Ohio State?s defense rates at 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 3.6 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Ohio State completely shut down every better than average pass attack that they faced this season, and only Illinois averaged more than 5.0 yppp against the Buckeyes. The reason that the Illini managed to average 6.0 yppp was because they couldn?t sack the mobile Juice Williams (Williams averaged only 6.4 yards per pass attempt but was sacked just once). Matt Flynn is not that mobile, so he won?t be able to buy time to find open receivers and there won?t be too many open receivers for Flynn to find. Flynn had mixed results against the good pass defenses he?s faced this year, averaging 8.8 yppp against Virginia Tech and 8.1 yppp against Auburn, but managing just 3.0 yppp against South Carolina and 3.2 yppp against Kentucky. Ohio State?s pass defense is so much better than any team that LSU faced this year (the Buckeyes allowed just 3.6 yppp to teams that would average 6.2 yppp), but Flynn is capable of posting decent numbers and is also potentially going to be horrible. LSU?s offensive production will probably depend on their ability to run against an Ohio State defense that gave up just 3.6 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense). Ohio State played two teams that are very good running teams and the Buckeyes gave up a combined 5.1 yprp to Washington and Illinois (who would combine to average 6.1 yprp), so they were only 1.0 yprp better than average against good running teams. Those numbers are misleading, however, as Washington and Illinois both have running quarterbacks that got a lot of those yards. Ohio State held All-Big 10 back Rashard Mendenhall to just 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 ypr) and held Washington star Louis Rankin to 42 yards on 14 carries as quarterback Jake Locker scrambled for 107 yards on 13 rushes. Flynn is a decent runner, but certainly not in the class of Williams and Locker, so don?t imply that Ohio State?s relative troubles with Washington and Illinois apply to LSU?s good rushing attack. LSU may actually run for less than expected in this game given that the Tigers, who are 1.3 yprp better than average overall, were only 0.9 yprp better than average against the 7 better than average run defenses that they faced (5.2 yprp against Miss State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee ? who would combine to allow 4.3 yprp to an average team). Ohio State?s defense is 0.9 yppl better than LSU?s offense and my math model projects just 303 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
The key to this game is how well LSU?s defense plays. The Tigers were a dominating unit for most of the season, but star DT Glenn Dorsey (the college defensive player of the year) was banged up late in the season and LB Barry Beckwith missed a couple of games late in the season. LSU?s defense was noticeably weaker in their final 3 games, giving up a combined 6.4 yppl to Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. Reports are that the Tigers are fully healthy on defense and will be back to their dominating form for this game. LSU was 1.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Tigers were 1.6 yppl better than average in their first 10 games and I?ll assume that they will be that good in this game. If that is the case then the Tigers have a 1.3 yppl advantage over an Ohio State offense that was just 0.3 yppl better than average with Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Ohio State was 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they faced (5.3 yppl against Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan, who would allow 4.7 yppl to an average team). However, the Buckeyes averaged only 4.0 yppl against Michigan, who was the best defensive team that they faced this season. Ohio State should have an even tougher time moving the ball against LSU?s defense and my math model projects just 274 yards at 4.1 yppl is the Tigers defense is indeed as good as it was in their first 10 games (which I?m assuming it is). Boeckman is also a bit turnover prone (12 interceptions in just 273 passes, 4.4%) and the math model projects a 5.3% interception rate for Boeckman in this game, so the Buckeyes could be in trouble if they get down by a couple of scores and are forced to throw more than normal against LSU?s attacking defense.
Overall, my math model favored LSU by just ? a point using stats for each team for the entire season (with 2 points being give to LSU for playing in Tiger-friendly New Orleans), but that projection changes after adjusting Flynn?s stats for games in which he had all his receivers and using only LSU?s first 10 games on defense. I now have LSU by 4 points with a total of just 38 ? points, as it is pretty clear that the defenses have big advantages in this game and scoring will not be easy (unless there are some defensive touchdowns). Underdogs of 3 points or more are 6-2 straight up in BCS Championship games, including Ohio State?s 31-24 upset of Miami-Florida as a 12 point dog in 2003. The Buckeyes will certainly be motivated after hearing how they can?t compete with an SEC team for the past 6 weeks and Ohio State is better equipped to compete this season given that they?re defense is the best in the nation this year after being a very young group last season. Remember, the Buckeyes? defense was 0.3 yppl better than LSU?s defense was when it was healthy. I can see both teams winning this game and my math model suggests that there is no value in betting the side in this game. The better play is on the under given that both defenses have significant advantages and I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion in this game at 45 points or higher and I have no opinion on the side.
****SCOTT SPRITZER'S CFB GAME OF THE YEAR ****
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OSU buckeyes
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OSU buckeyes
THE SPORTS REPORTER
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Louisiana Superdome -- New Orleans, LA
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over LSU by 10
Be sure to include Derrick Harvey and Jarvis Moss on your holiday card list. Why you
ask? These two former Florida defensive ends are one of the main reasons why we are
getting points here. All of the college football talking heads hash over ?SEC team speed?
and how Ohio State is too slow to compete. They point to last year?s 41-14 title game
loss to the Gators. In reality ? it was the quickness and strength of Harvey and Moss
that killed the Buckeyes. Bottom line is that Ohio St. is a big-time program that recruits
big time athletes. And yes ? those athletes are fast. For all of the accolades that LSU?s
defensive front receives ? they can?t touch the Gators d-line from last year.
As for this year ? the Ohio St. defense will control this game. Lost in the Big Ten bashing
is the fact that the Buckeye defensive 11 is a sinister group. Sure LSU has some
playmakers ? but they aren?t that dynamic ? they want to line up and play smash
mouth. That?s OSU?s game, too. On the season, Jim Tressel?s D has put up these ridiculous
stats:
? 11 TDs surrendered (2 rushing; 9 passing)
? Average of 13 first downs surrendered per game
? 17 red zone attempts against
? Held five opponents under 20 yards rushing
No matter how Joe Public feels about the Big Ten, it is no WAC or Mountain West. Those
numbers were put up against mostly solid clubs. LSU?s much hyped defensive can?t
touch these numbers:
? 30 TD?s surrendered (13 rushing; 17 passing)
? 35 red zone attempts against
? Average of 441 yards against in their last three games
The Tigers want to pound the rock, as evidenced by their 59/41 run/pass ratio. They will
find the goings tough and will need to attack via the air. QB Matt Flynn has been inconsistent
and isn?t the drop back passer that Chris Leak was for Florida last year. As for
Tressel?s offense, they won?t have any easy time of it either, but the fact that LSU defensive
coordinator Bo Pelini is moonlighting in Omaha since he took the Nebraska head
spot should help. Pelini insists that he is focused on the January 7th game ? but let?s
be realistic. National signing day for recruits is in the first week of February and Pelini
will defer to the man that will be signing his checks ? Tom Osborne. Current UGA coach
Mark Richt faced a similar situation in 2000 when FSU faced Oklahoma in the title
game. When asked this month about it ? Richt regretted his decision to hold double duty
? saying it was too much.
Hard fought battles generally go to the team with the better defense and the better
coach. Check the Buckeye box on both. OHIO STATE, 27-17.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Louisiana Superdome -- New Orleans, LA
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over LSU by 10
Be sure to include Derrick Harvey and Jarvis Moss on your holiday card list. Why you
ask? These two former Florida defensive ends are one of the main reasons why we are
getting points here. All of the college football talking heads hash over ?SEC team speed?
and how Ohio State is too slow to compete. They point to last year?s 41-14 title game
loss to the Gators. In reality ? it was the quickness and strength of Harvey and Moss
that killed the Buckeyes. Bottom line is that Ohio St. is a big-time program that recruits
big time athletes. And yes ? those athletes are fast. For all of the accolades that LSU?s
defensive front receives ? they can?t touch the Gators d-line from last year.
As for this year ? the Ohio St. defense will control this game. Lost in the Big Ten bashing
is the fact that the Buckeye defensive 11 is a sinister group. Sure LSU has some
playmakers ? but they aren?t that dynamic ? they want to line up and play smash
mouth. That?s OSU?s game, too. On the season, Jim Tressel?s D has put up these ridiculous
stats:
? 11 TDs surrendered (2 rushing; 9 passing)
? Average of 13 first downs surrendered per game
? 17 red zone attempts against
? Held five opponents under 20 yards rushing
No matter how Joe Public feels about the Big Ten, it is no WAC or Mountain West. Those
numbers were put up against mostly solid clubs. LSU?s much hyped defensive can?t
touch these numbers:
? 30 TD?s surrendered (13 rushing; 17 passing)
? 35 red zone attempts against
? Average of 441 yards against in their last three games
The Tigers want to pound the rock, as evidenced by their 59/41 run/pass ratio. They will
find the goings tough and will need to attack via the air. QB Matt Flynn has been inconsistent
and isn?t the drop back passer that Chris Leak was for Florida last year. As for
Tressel?s offense, they won?t have any easy time of it either, but the fact that LSU defensive
coordinator Bo Pelini is moonlighting in Omaha since he took the Nebraska head
spot should help. Pelini insists that he is focused on the January 7th game ? but let?s
be realistic. National signing day for recruits is in the first week of February and Pelini
will defer to the man that will be signing his checks ? Tom Osborne. Current UGA coach
Mark Richt faced a similar situation in 2000 when FSU faced Oklahoma in the title
game. When asked this month about it ? Richt regretted his decision to hold double duty
? saying it was too much.
Hard fought battles generally go to the team with the better defense and the better
coach. Check the Buckeye box on both. OHIO STATE, 27-17.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
NBA
MONDAY, JANUARY 7
RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER
*PHOENIX over DENVER by 11
233, 238, 221, 242, 237? Those are the totals of the last five games in which these two
teams have played. The Nuggets are at a disadvantage because they?ll be playing their second
back-to-back set in five days, but the scoring should still be plentiful ? even if the
Nuggets don?t have much of a chance against the Suns at home. For the record, Denver is
6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in Phoenix since 2003. PHOENIX 127-116
RECOMMENDED
SAN ANTONIO over *GOLDEN STATE by 11
The Spurs are back in Oakland, three weeks after losing to the Warriors by 12 without Tim
Duncan, and should be plenty motivated to avenge the previous loss now that their best
player is back in the fold. Although the Spurs did play yesterday, nearly 24 hours will have
passed since Sunday?s game ended before tonight?s tip-off ? plenty of time for the Spurs
to recuperate. SAN ANTONIO 101-90
NBA
MONDAY, JANUARY 7
RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER
*PHOENIX over DENVER by 11
233, 238, 221, 242, 237? Those are the totals of the last five games in which these two
teams have played. The Nuggets are at a disadvantage because they?ll be playing their second
back-to-back set in five days, but the scoring should still be plentiful ? even if the
Nuggets don?t have much of a chance against the Suns at home. For the record, Denver is
6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in Phoenix since 2003. PHOENIX 127-116
RECOMMENDED
SAN ANTONIO over *GOLDEN STATE by 11
The Spurs are back in Oakland, three weeks after losing to the Warriors by 12 without Tim
Duncan, and should be plenty motivated to avenge the previous loss now that their best
player is back in the fold. Although the Spurs did play yesterday, nearly 24 hours will have
passed since Sunday?s game ended before tonight?s tip-off ? plenty of time for the Spurs
to recuperate. SAN ANTONIO 101-90
THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE HOOPS
*****KEY RELEASES *****
SAN JOSE STATE Plus over Santa Clara (Monday, January 7)
COLLEGE HOOPS
*****KEY RELEASES *****
SAN JOSE STATE Plus over Santa Clara (Monday, January 7)
THIS IS FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ARE NEW TO THIS OR JUST DONT HAVE A BRAIN- I POST EVERYTHING I CAN FIND- STOP REQUESTING FOR PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!! IF ITS OUT THERE I WILL POST IT- IF YOU NEED A PLAY THAT BAD THATS NOT POSTED, SPEND YOUR OWN MONEY AND BUY IT !!!!!!!!!!!
THANK YOU EDDIE!
To Eddie and Giants and ANYONE else.
I agree about the "no beg" policy. I was dyin the last 2 days, but did not ask 5 times for any certain plays and won't.
I ask this though, Eddie...if you KNOW you wont be able to post AR on a certain day, the day before, just put a post to that effect if you can.
As long as I'm playing, I WILL BUY AR for the forum for that day...period.:SIB
Otherwise, I will probably wait till the last minute, buy it, but my post will be just minutes before tip off/kick off. That will not help the forum much.
Hey, you guys pull a lot of weight here, and I for one sincerely appreciate it if I don't say so each day, and I know most of the other guys feel the same (and if they dont f*ckem, right?)
Anyway, nice to see you back Eddie, and when your sub runs out, or you will be out for a day or two, I got your back.
Lets crush'em today!:00hour
Thanks for the kind words.
It was my 1 year anniversary with my girlfriend. Truth be told, I do not keep track of stuff like that, but she reminded me and asked if I had anything planned. I panicked and used comps down at the Trop in AC to get a room for the weekend. I was planning on logging on in the mornings at the business center and posting the picks. Business Center isn't open anymore on the weekends at the Trop. I had no idea, so my intention was to log on and post but was unable to and had no email access or anything to report my 2 day hiatus to anyone.
It was my 1 year anniversary with my girlfriend. Truth be told, I do not keep track of stuff like that, but she reminded me and asked if I had anything planned. I panicked and used comps down at the Trop in AC to get a room for the weekend. I was planning on logging on in the mornings at the business center and posting the picks. Business Center isn't open anymore on the weekends at the Trop. I had no idea, so my intention was to log on and post but was unable to and had no email access or anything to report my 2 day hiatus to anyone.
No worries Eddie, Happy Anniversary. Hope the tables were good to you both, and more importantly....the mattress!
BTW, do you have a sub to AR that will expire, or do you just "find a way" to get the plays each day? curious...
Have a great one Bro, and thanks again.
BTW, do you have a sub to AR that will expire, or do you just "find a way" to get the plays each day? curious...
Have a great one Bro, and thanks again.
BOB BALFE
Ohio State +3.5 over LSU
One gets the feeling that this isn't even the title game. After a wacky season of upsets the College season comes to a close tonight. Most will say LSU doesn't deserve to be in the title game as they gave up their #1 ranking twice this season and Ohio State didn't even have to play because the BIG 10 does not have a title game. The Buckeyes backed their way into the title game as did LSU. The number one thing I look at is Ohio State's Defense. They where awesome on defense all season and actually do have an offense to compete. LSU will be playing in front of their home crowd, but they proved they could be beaten at home this year. Ohio State was embarrassed in last years title game and a lot of the players from that game do not want to go through that feeling again. Its sad to see the season end, but its been a fun year! Take Ohio State.
NBA Basketball
Warriors -3 over Spurs
College Basketball
Colorado -3 over Tulsa
Ohio State +3.5 over LSU
One gets the feeling that this isn't even the title game. After a wacky season of upsets the College season comes to a close tonight. Most will say LSU doesn't deserve to be in the title game as they gave up their #1 ranking twice this season and Ohio State didn't even have to play because the BIG 10 does not have a title game. The Buckeyes backed their way into the title game as did LSU. The number one thing I look at is Ohio State's Defense. They where awesome on defense all season and actually do have an offense to compete. LSU will be playing in front of their home crowd, but they proved they could be beaten at home this year. Ohio State was embarrassed in last years title game and a lot of the players from that game do not want to go through that feeling again. Its sad to see the season end, but its been a fun year! Take Ohio State.
NBA Basketball
Warriors -3 over Spurs
College Basketball
Colorado -3 over Tulsa