Money line play on UAB....

[double down]

How many times have we seen this before....Line opens at X...everyone on the road favorite and it seems like a sure thing....but, at the same time..line is moving progressively the other way...everyone is loading up on this sure thing....what usually happens?? Bam..the other side wins...every freaking body loses.

My #s say Memphis in a big way...the only thing I can see is in the previous matchup..Uab out rebounded Memphis 35-27...but, that was because Memphis shot 55% and had four people in double digits.

Well, I ain't falling for it again...money line on Uab

 

[Nickelback]

Memphis is undefeated in conference play. . . sounds like more of a risk than those playing Memphis tonight IMO.

 

[RobertBIrish]

Line is back up to 5 and the money line just went up at CRIS and Olympic from Memphis -200 to -220 I learned a long time ago that letting the line move solely effect your judgment is a mistake just the night before last I had Fla INt at +11 the line jumped to +13 they covered easy now by your logic I should have bet the other way but I would have lost if I had I watch the lines everyday from opening to closing and if you bet like you are saying you would lose allot more than you would win. Nothing personal just voicing my opinion.

 

[double down]

I'll feel better getting beat this way...rather then seeing my money fly away with another obvious trap. If this isn't the epitome of a sucker play..I don't know what one is....

I am sure you have seen it before too.

 

[Nickelback]

double down,

I define a sucker bet as one where VEGAS sets the line and it looks absolutely ridiculous and too easy which means it usually comes out that way. Setting the line at 7 for this game was not ridiculous. . . its the money that has fallen on UAB to drive the line all the way down to 4 that is absurd! This was not the oddsmaker's doing. . . its the cappers who have been large sums on UAB. Should be interesting to see if there is a steam play on this game.

Good luck just the same.

 

[double down]

Nickel,

I understand what you are saying...and I don't think I used the proper word "sucker".....its just in almost all similar circumstances where the line movement is not jiving with the public opinion...it seems I get burned EVERYTIME...just not tonight

I am going down with the wise guys.

 

[Nickelback]

double down,

That's just it! I don't believe the wise guys have made their plays yet. . . this Memphis line has trickled down since this morning. . . not all at once. When steam plays hit, there are significant moves within five minutes. Another big difference.

 

[double down]

Nickel,

Who the heck is hitting this line then?? I am certain that this board represents public opinion...and don't see anyone picking UAB nor giving any statistical edges to the Blazers....From my view Public is all over Memphis....but, someone is playing BIG BIG money on UAB....its definitely got my interest.

Good Luck to you though.

 

[RobertBIrish]

what is your defintion of a wiseguy?

 

[double down]

People who do this for a living...people who have knowledge most of us don't. Someon "wiser" than thou

 

[Nickelback]

double down,

When somebody plays big big money, the lines change significantly ALL AT ONCE! They do not change by 1/2 a point or 1 point every hour! I've always wondered what this board among others represent as a percentage of the total betting population. . . I believe it represents a VERY small fraction.

This is how wise money is confused with the public simply betting on one side of a game. . .

In any case, I'm sure I haven't changed your mind and maybe UAB will end up winning tonight. However, I believe your reasoning for making this play is a little off given the evidence that I have seen (vegasinsider among others).

If anybody else has reason to believe that I am wrong with this, please add your two cents as maybe there is something with the line changes that I have missed.

 

[taoist]

what is your defintion of a wiseguy?

UNHOLYCOW!!! ...wizeguy extrodinaire!!! :toast:

 

[double down]

Another thing...this is an ESPN game on a Friday Night where its really the only attractive game on the card...hmmmm.

 

[RobertBIrish]

well I don't consider myself a wiseguy but I do this for a living and have been doing this solely for 5 years now I watch the lines from the time they are posted on Don Best to the time they close and like I said before I have been around this business for over 25 years started running parlay cards when I was a kid and now I am 38 and I don't consider myself any smarter than anyone else and why don't you run by Don Best and see the record of the wiseguy plays they post, they are not that impressive to me.

 

[double down]

Nickel,

Don't get me wrong!!! I freaking love Memphis in this game...More than you can imagine..it is going to take every ounce of energy I have to place the money line wager...But, I have been around town enough and been burned by this type of scenerios too many times. Geez..Maybe I should just try to get drunk and laid and not bet...just look at the results afterwards...

 

[RobertBIrish]

and I am not trying to say that I can't lose this game because Memphis could get hammered, what I am trying to say is that if you bet solely on line movement you are making a mistake in my humble opinion.

 

[RAYMOND]

i agree

 

[double down]

BobbyIrish,

How many times have you gotten beat being on the wrong side of this type of scenerio. I am sure you've seen it a million times...maybe I just remember the losses? I don't think so....it smells like the rest of them.


Nickel,

I think this board is an excellent representaion of public opinion.

 

[Nickelback]

Fair enough double down,

From my experience, I usually get burned when it is Vegas that comes out with a strange line and I bet the side that looks too good to be true. . . I usually come out just fine when it is cappers that have moved the line.

May Memphis either win by more than 4 or UAB win outright because if neither scenerio comes in, we both lose

 

[double down]

BobbyIrish,

I don't cap my games on line movement...just adjusting my strategy when something like this occurs.