Money Management

[Cie]

You've got it figured out, but. . . if you've got a stop-loss, then that's your bankroll and anything over a unit is more than 5% of your bankroll is too aggressive and 10-12 plays out at once is too much.

So, if I was you, I'd either . . .

1. Raise the bankroll (may not be possible)
2. Lower the percentage on a play (may not be desirable)
3. Play less games (would change the way you play)

Exactly. This is my main problem. I set my ncaa stop loss at 20 units, but regularly played 10-15% per play on 10 plays weekly over the past 5+ years. I worked fine due to steady, although diminishing, success I have enjoyed. All it took was a bad run (10 games under .500) at the beginning of this season to push me beyond this limit. I was shocked when it happened, but further reflection revealed exactly what you pointed out.

I can raise the bankroll (or stop-loss in my case), but I am not interested in playing less per game or less games. I did play less games this past week by eliminating a couple of "gut" plays. I am just not watching enough football to make gut plays based on what I have seen on the field.

For now, I raised my stop loss to 50 units, and am going to continue to play ncaa.

Still looking for some recommended literature on the subject.

 

[JT 314]

Money management is different for everyone, but crucial. I can't grind out 2% at a time, especially now with minimal "action" each night. From my experience you have to raise your bets when you are going good and back off when you are in a funk. To play 2% when you are really going good is not maximizing your profit. Same as 2% when you are getting killed, but backing it down or taking a day or two off is the hard thing to do!!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Money management is different for everyone, but crucial. I can't grind out 2% at a time, especially now with minimal "action" each night. From my experience you have to raise your bets when you are going good and back off when you are in a funk. To play 2% when you are really going good is not maximizing your profit. Same as 2% when you are getting killed, but backing it down or taking a day or two off is the hard thing to do!!

You have to take emotion out of the equation. If you are always changing your bet size you are going to lose money. The problem with your idea is that you never know what is going to happen in the future. If you go 10-2 at $400 a bet and you think you are hot, then you raise your bets to $800 and go 4-8 you are going to be in the hole.

10-2 @ 400/bet = +3120
4-8 @ 800/bet = -3840

or

14-10 @ 400/bet = +1200; 19.5% ROI

So in this case you have picked 58.3% winners and you are in the hole. I think this is one of the most important things to learn. The short term strategy of always changing your bet size is just like going up to a roulette table and betting on black because you have seen 10 reds in a row. Over a small sample size you have no idea what the next 20 bets are going to be. For most people who are always changing bet size that is death. Cause even if you can pick at 58% you are going to have some ugly 20 game streaks.

 

[- FT -]

hey trampled, check your gmail