well, everybody who was crushed when these two couldn't play this game in 2020 due to a little covid at missouri... REJOICE!!
we have now entered the portion of the bowl season that is full of matchups of mediocre power-4 teams.
oh, the full name is the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. wow, those commercials are really gonna trigger some people.
iowa is missing leading rusher johnson and CB harris, who tied for the team lead in PDs.
mizzou is missing WR Burden, who led the team with 61 receptions, and starting RT Membou. OH, and LB chuck hicks. chuck is missing the game to spend time with his family.
here's a shocker... iowa likes to run the ball. the loss of johnson may be big. he averaged 6.4 yards/carry. that's very impressive, considering they (as usual) had very little threat of the forward pass. his backup, moulton, averaged 5.4. patterson is the only other RB with more than 11 carries, and he averaged 4.4. mizzou is 59th in the country, giving up 4.0 yards/rush.
sullivan gets the start at qb for the hawkeyes. he took over for mcnamara in the northwestern game. after that, he got two starts. he left the 2nd game (against UCLA) with an ankle sprain. in those 2 games, he only threw 19 passes, so we don't have a lot to go on. at home, against wisconsin, he only threw 10 passes, as the hawkeyes blew out the badgers. he completed 7 for 93 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs. he also ran for 58 yards on 9 carries. at UCLA, he completed 6 of 9 for 157 yards (!) with 0 TDs and 2 (!) INTs. he also ran for 10 yards on 9 carries and took 3 (!) sacks. that's a very busy 12 pass attempts. 3 sacks, 2 INTs, and 36 yards per completion. wow! so in those 2 starts, he averaged over 13 yards/att. very small sample size, but seems like a high-risk/high-reward guy. i'd love any input from our iowa guys, if they're around.
he threw roughly 100 passes each of the last 2 years, when he was with northwestern. his #s there are ok, but certainly unremarkable. he did take a LOT of sacks last year (24 in 99 pass attempts).
if iowa struggles to run the ball, they may open it up a little. it feels like sullivan could throw for 250 yards, or could throw 3 INTs. or maybe he'll channel his inner jameis winston and do both!!
missouri's only 3 losses were at texas a&m (blowout), at alabama (blowout), and at south carolina (scored a go-ahead td with 1:10 left, then gave up the winning td with 15 seconds left).
the tigers' ground game is... meh. noel is their leading rusher and averages a respectable 5.1 yards/carry. carroll, who gets nearly as many carries, only averaged 4.4. iowa wasn't as strong as usual against the run this year, allowing 3.8 yds/carry (35th in the country).
brady cook had another solid year, completing 63.3% of his passes, averaging 7.8 yards/att, with 9 TDs and only 2 INTs. iowa was 17th in the country, only allowing 6.1 yards/att, but that was against big 10 offenses.
iowa's kicker is very reliable. he made 15 of 15 inside 50 yards (including 9-9 under 30 yards. because of course iowa kicked 9 fgs under 30 yards). missouri's kicker... quite the enigma. he was 17 of 18 under 40 yards and 4 of 7 from 50+. but... he was just 1-of-7 between 40-49.
iowa is 10th in the country in turnover margin (+.9/game), but missouri is 25th (+.5).
as you'd expect, iowa does not beat themselves with penalties. they are 2nd in the country with only 26.5 penalty yards/game. missouri is 62nd, picking up 50.4 yards/game.
when i first saw the line a few weeks ago, mizzou was -3.5. it has crossed the magic number, down to 2.5.
sullivan feels like such a huge wildcard. i think iowa is going to have to throw to loosen up the d. missouri only picked off 6 passes all year.
i keep going back and forth on this one. if i was a little smarter (and/or more disciplined), i'd stay off it. but the last stat i just looked at kinda swayed me... missouri is 4th in the country in 3rd down defense, only allowing conversions 28.6% of the time. iowa usually relies on long drives, and that looks like it will prove to be difficult. iowa converts on 3rd down 40% (61st in the country), but were only successful 26.5% of the time their last 3 games. ok, 2 1/2 of those games were with stratton at qb, but, still... they were against UCLA, maryland, and nebraska (123rd, 78th, and 32nd in 3rd down conversions defensively).
missouri -2.5 2X
i have a weird feeling this game goes over, but not enough to pull the trigger yet.
we have now entered the portion of the bowl season that is full of matchups of mediocre power-4 teams.
oh, the full name is the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. wow, those commercials are really gonna trigger some people.
iowa is missing leading rusher johnson and CB harris, who tied for the team lead in PDs.
mizzou is missing WR Burden, who led the team with 61 receptions, and starting RT Membou. OH, and LB chuck hicks. chuck is missing the game to spend time with his family.
here's a shocker... iowa likes to run the ball. the loss of johnson may be big. he averaged 6.4 yards/carry. that's very impressive, considering they (as usual) had very little threat of the forward pass. his backup, moulton, averaged 5.4. patterson is the only other RB with more than 11 carries, and he averaged 4.4. mizzou is 59th in the country, giving up 4.0 yards/rush.
sullivan gets the start at qb for the hawkeyes. he took over for mcnamara in the northwestern game. after that, he got two starts. he left the 2nd game (against UCLA) with an ankle sprain. in those 2 games, he only threw 19 passes, so we don't have a lot to go on. at home, against wisconsin, he only threw 10 passes, as the hawkeyes blew out the badgers. he completed 7 for 93 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs. he also ran for 58 yards on 9 carries. at UCLA, he completed 6 of 9 for 157 yards (!) with 0 TDs and 2 (!) INTs. he also ran for 10 yards on 9 carries and took 3 (!) sacks. that's a very busy 12 pass attempts. 3 sacks, 2 INTs, and 36 yards per completion. wow! so in those 2 starts, he averaged over 13 yards/att. very small sample size, but seems like a high-risk/high-reward guy. i'd love any input from our iowa guys, if they're around.
he threw roughly 100 passes each of the last 2 years, when he was with northwestern. his #s there are ok, but certainly unremarkable. he did take a LOT of sacks last year (24 in 99 pass attempts).
if iowa struggles to run the ball, they may open it up a little. it feels like sullivan could throw for 250 yards, or could throw 3 INTs. or maybe he'll channel his inner jameis winston and do both!!
missouri's only 3 losses were at texas a&m (blowout), at alabama (blowout), and at south carolina (scored a go-ahead td with 1:10 left, then gave up the winning td with 15 seconds left).
the tigers' ground game is... meh. noel is their leading rusher and averages a respectable 5.1 yards/carry. carroll, who gets nearly as many carries, only averaged 4.4. iowa wasn't as strong as usual against the run this year, allowing 3.8 yds/carry (35th in the country).
brady cook had another solid year, completing 63.3% of his passes, averaging 7.8 yards/att, with 9 TDs and only 2 INTs. iowa was 17th in the country, only allowing 6.1 yards/att, but that was against big 10 offenses.
iowa's kicker is very reliable. he made 15 of 15 inside 50 yards (including 9-9 under 30 yards. because of course iowa kicked 9 fgs under 30 yards). missouri's kicker... quite the enigma. he was 17 of 18 under 40 yards and 4 of 7 from 50+. but... he was just 1-of-7 between 40-49.
iowa is 10th in the country in turnover margin (+.9/game), but missouri is 25th (+.5).
as you'd expect, iowa does not beat themselves with penalties. they are 2nd in the country with only 26.5 penalty yards/game. missouri is 62nd, picking up 50.4 yards/game.
when i first saw the line a few weeks ago, mizzou was -3.5. it has crossed the magic number, down to 2.5.
sullivan feels like such a huge wildcard. i think iowa is going to have to throw to loosen up the d. missouri only picked off 6 passes all year.
i keep going back and forth on this one. if i was a little smarter (and/or more disciplined), i'd stay off it. but the last stat i just looked at kinda swayed me... missouri is 4th in the country in 3rd down defense, only allowing conversions 28.6% of the time. iowa usually relies on long drives, and that looks like it will prove to be difficult. iowa converts on 3rd down 40% (61st in the country), but were only successful 26.5% of the time their last 3 games. ok, 2 1/2 of those games were with stratton at qb, but, still... they were against UCLA, maryland, and nebraska (123rd, 78th, and 32nd in 3rd down conversions defensively).
missouri -2.5 2X
i have a weird feeling this game goes over, but not enough to pull the trigger yet.
