**Must Read** Monday Night Trend $$

[AM2kidz]

Sometimes we seem to overcap on alot of games and if we just look closely at a game and go with our gut feeling we will do ok... For example: ON Monday night games, this is a very nice Trend that should maybe help if you are on the Fence and not sure which way to go....

Pointspread has only come into play 7 of the last 52 MNF Games!!!! Just pick your winner period!! I personally CAN NOT see Skins winning! Here is a breakdown:
2001; 1-0
2000; 14-2-1
1999; 13-4
1998; 14-1-2
Amazing isn't it, how we hem and haw about spread, JUST PICK THE WINNER of the game and you will cover and astounding 86.5% over the last 3+ years!!

Good Luck To all... I hope this helps

Comments are appreciated... Go Packers...

AM2kidz....

 

[bcj920]

Thanks for the info---but, IE had it posted about 3 or so hours ago in the original gb/wash thread. Good luck tonight, and I agree that green bay rolls. Same type of game as last nights.

just my opinion

bobby

 

[bookkilla]

bcj920, hope you're right tonight as I'm probably gonna play the over.

What part of Dallas you in?

 

[bcj920]

bookkilla, i'm in plano/richardson area....i will be teasing this game tonight...gb/over...

just my opinion

bobby

 

[bookkilla]

wow, thats cool. I'm also in Plano off the Tollway.

Good luck to you!

 

[bcj920]

i'm around preston&park

 

[Sick Dog]

That's true in any NFL game the spread doesn't come in to play over 80% of the time.

 

[nole47]

good point sick dog. i heard about that a couple years ago but it honestly didnt help me much, he is right and you could say that about most of the games i think.

 

[djv]

I E, tell them what happen the 3 years prior to this trend. Believe it was much less. A trend can change at any time. It's cooking right now and could stop tonight. It should be used as a over all package of capping a game. Not the only point to use. GL And thks for posting the info. I for got about this one myself. But With number going as high as 10 and 10.5 becarfull.

 

[Investment Executive]

djv,

1997 14-2-1
1996 16-1-0
1995 15-1-0

yes, this has to be just one of the various points of handicapping a game and your are correct in your comments sick dog...actually was just bringing this all up in reponse to AMZ's question about teasers..
nothing more...monday nights have seen a little higher tendency to not having a factor w/ the pointspread than the 78-80% of all games(depending on line database you use)...

just another antedote to the overall general question...why back a team/underdog if you think they won't win outright...pertaining to all sports/gambling venues.

good luck whatever anyone plays tonight.

[This message has been edited by Investment Executive (edited 09-24-2001).]

 

[SKEETER1]

That was the write up I was looking for....I said this last week but didnt get a response...but UR very very correct here....just pick a winner the PT spread doesnt matter...Thx for the update

Originally posted by AM2kidz:
Sometimes we seem to overcap on alot of games and if we just look closely at a game and go with our gut feeling we will do ok... For example: ON Monday night games, this is a very nice Trend that should maybe help if you are on the Fence and not sure which way to go....

Pointspread has only come into play 7 of the last 52 MNF Games!!!! Just pick your winner period!! I personally CAN NOT see Skins winning! Here is a breakdown:
2001; 1-0
2000; 14-2-1
1999; 13-4
1998; 14-1-2
Amazing isn't it, how we hem and haw about spread, JUST PICK THE WINNER of the game and you will cover and astounding 86.5% over the last 3+ years!!

Good Luck To all... I hope this helps

Comments are appreciated... Go Packers...

AM2kidz....

 

[djv]

Thanks I E, I thought they were not as high those three years. But there they are. I will add GB is only 5 and 9 as a home fav last three years. I believe they will win but will tez it. I cant take the dog Wash. Because you are right I dont think they will win the game. So this is one of those due to Packers are my team I might even just watch.
G L to everyone.

 

[ironlock]

??????????????????????

I hope no body loaded up on the game because of this TOTAL MISINFORMATION.

I am shocked at the calibur of cappers in here espousing to this garbage.

What you have said is correct, but your conclusions are incorrect. I dare you to analyze games with double digit point spreads only....I GUARANTEE YOU WILL FIND A DIFFERENT RESULT.

This is why trends are dangerous. You cannot take a set of data that have millions of factors, and summarily apply it to a game that has only a few in common with the data.

Hope most where smart enough to figure this out. Its not brain surgury. Lines of 1-6...sure its likely that the point spread will not come into effect. But when its 10 or more. I would be willing to guess its much closer to 50% than it is 70%.

Just an opinion on matters of fact.

Later fellas.

 

[Neemer]

As the article stated, in the NFL if a person is just able to pick the winner of the game, he will then in turn on average hit 8 out of 10 every week..

Don't try and make this one hard: GREEN
BAY just like the Indy/Buff game..

 

[ironlock]

Dont use your few brain cells you have left Neemer.

And what if those two where the two that had spreads of 10 or more. Now what? The information is not there, so dont make the assumption. Leaping to conclusions is not good handicapping. Not to mention, picking the winner straight up is not a given either..

Go find some diabetics that need shoes so that you can overcharge them, thats what your good at.

 

[djv]

Easy Guys. By the way IE just put up GB 4 and 10 Fav by 7 or more at home last three years and couple extra year 4. So there can be two side to look at. GL no matter what way you go.

 

[Investment Executive]

ironlock, respect your opinion, the whole point of where this started in another thread was just my opinion about whether to unload the tease...i thought he had a pretty good number at gb-2 to stick w/ it if he thought gb would win the game outright...that was just my opinion on the game nothing else....ive been wrong many times before about games....

by my numbers there have been 99 games since 1998 of favs 10 or more...
the pointspread came into effect in 31 of those games..31.3%...but like you say....the more the moneyline/spread goes up the more likely the cover by the dog....no doubt...myself....and again this is myself...i just don't like backing an underdog unless i feel they can win outright.

nothing more i want to really make out of this...dead issue for me...

the inferred line of 10 and 41 is saying final score of 25.5 to 15.5....going to be close probably like you say....

 

[dr. freeze]

Here is the statistical analysis on a standard 2:1 dog.

Givens:
The dog theoretically wins 1 of three times
The dog covers all these times
The Fav wins 2/3 times
The Fav covers half of all times
The Dog covers half of all times

3 Possibilities:
Dog wins 1/3 -- we have dog covering every time it wins.

Dog doesn't win and covers 1/6 of the time.
This adds up to the Dog covering half the time.

Fav wins and covers -- 1/2 the time.

That means on the standard 2:1 dog, the winning team covers 5 OUT OF 6 TIMES.....
This is 83%
This does not represent any trend for picking a winnder.
This is common sense.
Also: When you have a BIGGER DOG -- say the Skins tonight -- the 83% goes WAY DOWN!!!!!!!

You get those high numbers -- of more than 83% -- because the standard dog is less than 2:1....

Say the standard dog is 3:2 -- the same analysis can be done and you will get a number around 90%.

So saying you pick a winner and then bet on them is a very bad way to pick......the numbers AND common sense show it.

If the winner covers 7/52 times that corresponds to about 85% -- close to the number of the 2:1 dog. It must be noted, that most monday night games involve two teams that are not horrible from the year before -- so the spreads and the odds should be a little lower. This means that with simple analysis, the winner will cover greater than 83% if the time -- also corresponding to the observed.

With a huge spread -- you can throw this out the window -- here is the breakdown for the 4:1 dog. (A little late for tonight, but this needs to be illustrated anyway)

The dog covers half the time.
The fav covers half the time.
The dog wins 20 percent of the time -- covering all 20% of the time.
That means the dog loses and covers 30% of the time.

This lowers the "picking the winner" theory to covering 70% of the time.

Just standard arithmetic here -- hope it helps this confusion. And shows that there is no trend to bet on here. The observed data corresponds to the expected.
[This message has been edited by dr. freeze (edited 09-24-2001).]

[This message has been edited by dr. freeze (edited 09-24-2001).]

 

[AM2kidz]

I dont feel it is necessary for anyone to put down someone else on this forum.. We are all working together to try and make some money... I respect everyones opinion and I think it should be left at that.... I don't let any trend or any person make a decision on my plays but I do look at all information and try to develop solid picks... I just want to thank everyone for their comments on this thread... I do appreciate all of you.. Good luck everyone.... God Bless

AM2kidz....

 

[Never Caught Up]

Originally posted by AM2kidz:
I dont feel it is necessary for anyone to put down someone else on this forum.. AM2kidz....

Ditto. None of us are so smart we don't need the the help of our fellow cappers. That is what makes MJ's the best capping communnity on the net . . . teamwork.