My 2012 NFL Plays - Take 2

johnnyonthespot

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Closing the door on my first 2012 NFL plays thread and the results were . . . less than ideal. Hoping to get my mojo back. Final record in that thread was updated this A.M. and is there for all to see but I am going to start over in this one and then combine the results at the end of the year.

Today I am going with:

Lions +4 - This season Detroit has specialized in losing close games and I think today will be no exception. Texans may be without their top corner, which is certainly not going to help them cover Megatron today. Have to believe that the short week is not going to help the Texans D be at their dominant best, especially after they got smashed by the Jags in an OT game. This Texans team reminds me a lot of how the Steelers play - they concentrate on getting a lead and then play very conservative and make you take chances to beat them. I think this is a FG winner either way so give me the 4.

Dallas -3 - Hopefully the Cowboys have finally figured out who they are - a team with no run game but a very good pass game. Almost without exception when they have decided to try and force the issue and run the ball they have gotten terrible results. When they just accept the fact that their run game is non-existent they have done OK. Case in point - they go down 23-0 against NY, are forced to just throw the ball, and come all the way back (and should have won if Dez Bryant's pinkie was a quarter inch shorter). Then last weekend against Cleveland they fall behind big early again and are forced to throw and come all the way back to win in OT. Well today their 7th-ranked passing attack goes up against the 29th-ranked pass D of the Redskins, so hopefully they know enough to pit their strength against the Skins weakness. Of course, the Cowboys O-line is terrible (which is most of the problem with the running game) and there is always the Romo disaster factor to consider. On balance, though, I think the Cowboys pull this one out by a TD.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Adding:

Pats/Jets Over 48 - went back and forth on the side here and when I do that it's best to lay off. One thing I know for sure is Pats pass D is terrible. Just can't see each team not getting to 24.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Well, the Jets didn't get to 24 but the Pats got the Over by themselves so it didn't matter.

Cowboys couldn't quite finish off the comeback but the 2nd half bet cut my losses in that game to just the juice. Definitely not gonna complain about a 3-1 day.

Oh, and with regard to my comments on the Texans/Lions game, how about this for understatement of the century: "I think this is a FG winner either way so give me the 4." 3 different chances for it to end on a FG before it finally did. :mj07:

Hope to keep the momentum going into the weekend. Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day and GL!:toast:
 

johnnyonthespot

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Hoping to keep momentum going with these 1 unit plays:

Colts -3 - Colts will bounce back from the drubbing they received in New England.
Raiders +9 - Raiders are bad and Bengals are decent, but they still have no business being 9-point faves against anyone. I expect Palmer's best effort in his return to Cinncy.
Dolphins ML +155 - Seahawks just not the same team on the road.
Bears -6 - Something of a contrarian play. Bears got embarrassed on national TV and Vikings coming off of a bye. But Bears D excels at stopping the run and I just don't think Ponder can go all Kaepernick on them. Bears win by DD.


5-team parlay for (.5 units to win 11):
Colts -3
Browns +2
Bucs +2
Dolphins +3
Raiders +9

5-team teaser (.5 units to win 1.75 units)
Browns +9
Colts +4
Bucs +9
Dolphins +10
Saints +8
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 7-2 (+4.95 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-0 (.5 units pending)
Total: +3.55 units

Certainly not gonna complain about a 4-1 day but man those Raiders killed the 5-teamer and that hurts. About a month ago I decided that the secret to winning was to stop betting on bad teams and hoping they're not bad. Why don't I listen to myself.

Need the Saints +8 to close out the teaser. Really think the Saints win outright but don't feel compelled to add any more to it.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 8-3 (+4.85 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Total: +3.85 units

Really kicking myself for not going for the middle there. Wouldn't have hit but would have really softened the blow of the teaser not hitting. Got real real lucky with Akers missing the 50-yarder and then having the 33-yarder blocked though.

Tonight I have gone back and forth a number of times on both the side and total, and again when that happens I find the best move is to lay off. Only thing I like right now is:

Packers Team Total Over 24 (1.5 units) - Packers have hit at least 24 in 7 straight and Giants have allowed that in their last 3.

BOL everyone!
 

johnnyonthespot

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Well, that was an "interesting" first half. Still feel decently about the team total bet, although obviously I'd feel a lot better if they were at 14 instead of 10.

Don't know if Packers will actually make a game of this in the 2nd half, but think they will at least outscore the Giants in the 2nd half, so going with:

Packers -4 2H for 1 unit.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 8-5 (+2.35 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Total: +1.35 units

Well, still 6 minutes left in this one but it's clear the Packers just can't wait to get back to Green Bay so I'm calling this one. Real terrible end to an otherwise very nice day. Only silver lining is that this Green Bay beatdown puts my my Bears back in sole possesion of first place.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Carolina -3 for 1 unit - Panthers have competed all year long and just found ways to lose in the 4th. Now, like the Browns did yesterday, they come across a banged up team that they should be able to handle. Nick Foles and Bryce Brown? Give me Carolina.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 9-5 (+3.25 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Total: +2.25 units

Nice little rebound after the SNF debachle.

Already on:

Saints +3 +105 for 1 unit - Falcons have lost their last 4 against the Saints and they have only beaten 3 teams this year by more than a TD - KC, San Diego, and Philadelphia - teams who are a combined 8-24. Not taking anything away from the Falcons, just saying that they tend to play close games against good teams. Saints have their season on the line yet again. So far in that situation they have risen to the occasion, and I think they will again.
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 10-6 (+3.15 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Total: +2.15 units

Treading water now, but that's better than sinking.

Broncos -10 (-120) - Not getting fooled by this Raiders team again. This line is meant for people to say "whoa, a divisional match-up with the home team catching double-digits? Sign me up!" And as much as I hate laying double-digits at any time, let alone on the road in a divisional match-up, I just don't see it going any other way. Broncos D has been playing quite well the last 5-6 weeks and I expect that to continue tonight. On the other hand, I think the Broncos will just pick apart the Oakland secondary. I think this one gets ugly early, to the tune of something like 31-13.

6.5 point teaser - 1 unit to win .8
Broncos -4
Broncos/Raiders Over 42

I'm convinced Broncos will get into the mid-20s, so just looking for a little protection in case Palmer does actually have a good game and it ends up being 27-21.

BOL everyone!
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 11-6 (+3.95 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-2 (-1.5 units)
Total: +1.95 units

I'll say it again; why oh why do I continue to bet teasers? That one was pretty brutal, as Manning is just the master of draining the clock with the lead. Oh well, at least I hit the side to just juice out. Onward to Sunday!
 

johnnyonthespot

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Out of town over the weekend but back in action now. Tonight, going with:

Eagles +5 (1 unit)
Eagles ML +185 (.5 units)

Eagles with nothing to play for you say? How about a job? That's what Andy Reid is playing for, but more importantly that's what Nick Foles and Bryce Brown are playing for. I have faded the Eagles most of the year - thought they were overrated to start with and was vindicated - but now they are being undervalued and they also have this uncanny ability to play well when it no longer matters (see the 4-8 Eagles last year who finished 8-8). On the flip side you've got a Bengals team who just gave one away to the Cowboys 4 days ago. They say they've turned the page, but I'm not so sure. This spot reminds me a lot of the Bears going to Minnesota last weekend as a small fave after a crushing OT loss to the Seahawks. They came out flat and lost and that's what I think the Bengals do here.

I put a 60% chance of an Eagles outright win here, but I'll take the points for larger too to be safe.

GL everyone!
 

johnnyonthespot

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Updated record
Sides/Totals: 11-8 (+2.45 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.5 units)
Teasers: 0-2 (-1.5 units)
Total: +.45 units

Well, you see something new every day huh?

After the initial Bengals 10-point surge, I was feeling real good about my bet. Eagles driving to go up DD mid-way through the 3rd and then ... one bad underthrow by Foles and suddenly 20 minutes of real time later they're down 21. 4 TOs in 5 plays, just don't have words for that.
 
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