My 2012 NFL Plays - Take 2

[johnnyonthespot]

Going with these tomorrow:

Biggest play:

Texans -10 (2 units) - Last time the Texans were embarrassed on national TV they responded with a 43-13 trouncing of the Ravens. I expect a similar game here. Colts are a decent team and I have made cash on them this year. They are 3-3 on the road this year but a closer inspection will show how misleading that is. Their 3 victories have come at Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Detroit - all sub .500 teams. The three losses have been at the Bears (41-21), the Jets (35-9), and the Patriots (59-24). In other words, every time they've gone on the road against a team above .500 (or the Jets, who are 6-7), not only have they lost, they haven't even been competitive. This will be the toughest D that Luck has seen and I expect some rookie mistakes. On the other side, Texans will look to make a statement against a division rival. Both Schaub and Foster should find success against a less than stellar Colts D. Then there's the fact that the 10-point line between an 11-2 team and a 9-4 team is just begging for people to take the Colts. Texans win this one by 2 TDs or more.

Bears +3 (1 unit) - Call me a homer, but really feel like the Bears win this one outright.

Falcons -1 (1 unit) - Was expecting a 3-point line so that scares me a little bit. I'll chalk it up to overreaction to both the Giants spanking of the Saints and the Falcons loss to Carolina. You know Atlanta has had this one circled since last January. But bottom line is Atlanta just doesn't lose at home (at least not in the regular season) so I'll bite.

Ravens +3 (1 unit) - Broncos come in winners of 8 in a row. Time for that to change. Just don't see Ravens losing back to back home games.

Parlay (.5 units to win 5):
Texans -10
Bears +3
Falcons -1
Ravens +3

BOL to all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Rams -3 (1 unit) - Last time I trusted the Rams to show up at home they got blown up by the Jets. But Minny is just too one-dimensional and Rams do a decent job stopping the run. I'll put my money on Ponder not being able to beat me.

Bucs ML +170 (1 unit) - Real tough blow to the Bucs last week but they are still in the hunt, albeit barely. This is a revenge game though, the Saints continue to have off-field distractions, and the way their defense plays it's worth it to take a stab getting nearly 2-1 odds. If the Bucs are smart they will try and take the air out of the ball and give the Saints a steady dose of Doug Martin all day long. Although the way Brees has played the last couple weeks, maybe not.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record
Sides/Totals: 13-12 (+1.15 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-1 unit)
Teasers: 0-2 (-1.5 units)
Total: -1.35 units

Hit the big one and Atlanta but everything else went south on me. Bears one hurts personally and in the pocket book. Cutler pick right before the half turned that whole game around. Bears about to go into the locker room tied 7-7 or maybe even up a FG and then suddenly the next time they see the ball they are down 21-7 and that was pretty much it right there. 3 offensive PI calls on Alshon Jeffery - wow! Yeah, he technically pushed off with the arm but that is something 90% of receivers do every Sunday and it gets called once in a blue moon. Don't think I've ever seen 3 offensive PI calls in one game, let alone 3 against one receiver in the 2nd half. Still, Bears had lots of chances, made way too many mistakes, and deserve to be in the position they're in. They will be favorites the next two games but truthfully I have absolutely no faith they will pull them out. 2nd season in a row they are going to waste a phenomenal start and miss the playoffs. Just sad. Looks like I'm stuck pinning my hopes as a fan on my Illini basketball team.

Anyway, not a terrible day but certainly hoping for better days ahead. GL to all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Not a huge fan of today's card, but do like a couple:

Colts/Chiefs Over 41.5 (1 unit): Yeah I know; waiting for the Chiefs to score points is like waiting up for Santa. But the Colts will score and I think the Chiefs can at least eke out 13 or so. But my record at betting totals speaks for itself (and it ain't good).

Texans -9 (1 unit): Pretty simple. Minny is one dimensional (even if that one dimension is super-human) and Texans excel at stopping the run. Texans by DD.

Cards +6 (1 unit): Really I'm hoping for a 1-5 point Bears win here but I fear they lose outright. Bears have never played well in Arizona and in their current state have absolutely no business being almost a TD fave.