NASCAR - MBNA Platinum 400 at DOVER DOWNS

[Myron]

I like your plays Huckleberry. That Newman vs. Stewart matchup at OLY is free money. Provided Stewart finishes the race he should win that matchup without a flinch.

I also LOVE the Martin vs. Kenseth matchup. Yes Kenseth was fastest in every practice and qualifying BUT (and this is a big But), Kenseth is starting at the rear - not because he crashed his car but because he blew the engine. So the engine that was so fast all weekend isn't even going to be used in the race. Instead Kenseth has to start with a brand new untried engine that could be a lot slower and possibly not even ready for the race. Martin on the other hand starts close up and has been quick.

I also LOVE Bobby Labonte over Kevin Harvick. Labonte does really well at the track and has been fairly consistent of late while Harvick just plain sucks this year and shows no signs of coming out of it.

Lastly I really like Terry Labonte over John Andretti. Labonte is just a plain better driver while Andretti is in a slump.

 

[Huckleberry]

Adding:

20 Stewart ov 24 Gordon +132 2 units ( This is a close one, but again it's all about the value.....20 shouldn't be + money over anyone at Dover)

I see what you are saying about Labonte ov Harvick Myron.....but Labonte's troubles have me concerned and the 29 had 2 great finishes here last year. That combined with their complete team change, makes me more worried than I probably should be.

It does look as easy as 20 ov 12 doesn't it? FWIW to anyone, I never seem to win the "easy" ones, as something usually happens to the driver/car I have in such matchups.

If I had 44 Grissom ov 6 Martin at -200, the 6 would probably break down up like 6 laps. This isn't a negative attitude, it's simply based on past experience.

 

[sandwedge]

changing engines should not be that big of a deal. remember they used to do it all the time : a practice engine....change to a qualifying engine....change to the race engine. the plus side is with the one engine rule kenseth now has an engine with 0 miles on it and the others have engines that have all the miles accumulated from 3 practices/qualifying.

otoh, mark martin has been almost as fast as kenseth all week, so the big starting position advantage could be quite enough for mark to win that matchup.

 

[Huckleberry]

BTW....Stewart is now -165 ov Newman. While I/Myron really feel like it's found money, the value has completely disappeared IMO.

 

[Huckleberry]

Another little tidbit for those backing the 17 car. He still starts in the first pit stall meaning there will never be anyone in front of him....and for anyone who has watched a race this year, you know how incredible this crew is, and how much it means to a great finish.

The race is 400 laps. My guess is that if 17 has the car (handling wise) he had today, he will be in the top 10 by lap 50 if all goes well for him (no accidents).

Kenseth is going to be tough...no doubt about that. But even if he gets a top 5, and the 6 of Martin has the same luck his teammate does, he should be ahead of him at the end of it IMO.

 

[Myron]

With the way the cars are lined up now, the 6 starts 7th while the 17 is in the back someplace. Something you have to think of too is that the 17 may now get caught up in all the crap that happens with the back markers while Martin has very few cars in front of him.

As for the 29, I think the fact that he qualified 34th is testimony to the fact that the team has a long way to go. Harvick did well in a buch of races last year but in each one this year he has done nothing. I have no doubt they will come around sometime but it won't be this race.

BTW, Stewart at -165 is still value. I would play him up to -200 over a very overrated Ryan Newman.

 

[Huckleberry]

Myron, I'm sorry, but I have to respectuffly disagree with you on Stewart stilll offering value.

Never, not once or ever in the future, will I lay a price that has moved 35 cents from the opening number. I don't care "how easy it seems".

We've all watched races and know what can happen so unexpectantly. While the 20 looks "very easy" as Newman starts all the way in the back ( and has had all kinds of mechanical issues practically every race), I would not lay -165 with your money. I'm very happy with the -130, but to anyone reading and not able to bet the same (or close to it) price, I would not endorse this play at all at that price.

Just my opinion on the matter. BTW, as much as I liked the matchup of 28 Rudd ov 2 Wallace at -110 before qualifying, I would never lay -160 on it now. Same principle and just a personal theory of mine based on all my past experiences wagering on Nascar and other forms of auto racing.

 

[djv]

You guys are right on with the 29. I don't see him in the top 15. We have another sleeper to look out for the 88. He is due for top 5. GL To All.

 

[Huckleberry]

Recap/Finanalized Wagers:

Decided to keep the win index to only a few drivers this week, so I simply added a unit on the 28 at +1000 and the 6 at +1300. Basically, there is no value in including the usual Dover greats like Stewart, Gordon or Dale, Jr. and while I would have included Nadeau in the 10 and possibly Busch, I can't pull the trigger with them and their erratic driving style starting all the way in the back.

In addtion, some guys like Wallace, Jarrett, Johnson and others have me concerned, so I'm sticking with these 3.

ODDS TO WIN:
28 R. Rudd +1142 3.5 units
6 M. Martin +1420 2.5 units
17 M. Kenseth +1000 2 units

MATCHUPS:
20 Stewart ov 12 Newman -130 5 units
17 Kenseth ov 28 Rudd +150 3 units
6 Martin ov 17 Kenseth +110 5 units
20 Stewart ov 24 Gordon +128 5 units
10 Nadeau ov 25 Nemecheck -130 2 units
18 Labonte ov 29 Harvick -115 3 units
28 Rudd ov 8 Earnhardt, Jr. -130 3 units
17 Kenseth ov 8 Earnhardt, Jr. -140 3 units

Have a great race everyone.

 

[Huckleberry]

Uhg! Boy was that ugly. Doubt if Rudd could have caught the 48 anyway, but it would have been nice to find out.

Pocono up next.