NASCAR - The Coca-Cola Family 600 at CHARLOTTE

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Huckleberry

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I'm down on 2 drivers already for next week, as I don't think I'll see odds any better than this. I also fully anticipate these guys to both be starting in the top 5, and if last night is any indication of the kind of night they will have next Sunday, then I should be in good shape. :D

ODDS TO WIN
12 R. Newman +3300 1 unit
48 J. Johnson +1900 1.5 units
 

djv

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Huck I may have missed this. But with this being longest race of year. Are they still sticking with one engine rule. If so we may see a few more out of race this week due to engines giving up. I like your first to plays.
 

Huckleberry

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Yeah DJV.....

Yeah DJV.....

The one engine rule is still in effect. I can't imagine we'll see many drivers logging a lot of practice laps, keeping the miles down on those engines.

Last week was their "big" practice sessions, so that's what I will base most of my wagers off of.

That is going to be the main problem for Newman really.....very unreliable so far this year.
 
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Huckleberry

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Getting some more on the 48 car as I was made aware of +2300 on him. Adding 1 unit to previous 1.5 units.

GO JJ! 2.5 units to win 51.5 units. Now that would be a payday! :cool:
 

Huckleberry

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Let's try another early one.....

Let's try another early one.....

While doing work on qualifying, I couldn't help but notice Mr. Mark Martin's qualifiying efforts. He should be around 6-12th place, so if I play him, I have to play him now.

I can't believe it's not even Tuesday yet, and I have 3 drivers to win this race.

I haven't wavered, and am sticking with Roush this weekend. 97, 17, and 99 haven't qualified very well here at all, so I'll wait to get some nice prices on Friday.

Currently I have,
ODDS TO WIN:
12 R. Newman +3300 1 unit
48 J. Johnson +2060 2.5 units
6 M. Martin +2500 1.5 units

I'll have a full race/driver write-up either tomorrow or Wednesday.
 
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Huckleberry

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Full Race WRITE-UP

Full Race WRITE-UP

Race 12 out of 36
at Lowes Motor Speeday (Charlotte, NC.) - 1.5 mile Quad oval - 400 laps for 600 miles

This Week's Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Thursday, May 23rd
3:00PM - 5:00PM First Practice
7:00PM - Qualifying (two laps, all positions)

Saturday, May 25th
9:30AM - 10:15AM Second Practice
11:15PM - 12:00PM Final Practice "Happy Hour" -

Sunday, May 26th
5:30PM Start of The Coca-Cola Family 600

Well, it's been almost a month since our last Winston Cup points race, and there is no better place than to get the long summer racing months started than at Charlotte. This is the only 600 mile race on the circuit and 400 laps will most likely put the "one engine" rule to the ultimate test. Going into it, we have to look at teams that are not only running very well, but have a good reliability record so far this year. Let's take a look at a bunch of possible contenders.

The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
Rusty's record at Charlotte over the past 6 races has been mediocre at best, with finishes of 7th, 14th, 21st, 8th, 8th and 31st. He is still in contention for the title, but really hasn't been there at the end contending for many wins. I don't see this being the race that changes that. Let's wait for Pocono.
6 M. Martin -
Now this is a guy who has made Charlotte is personal playground recently. Even during his miserable year last year, Martin still managed finishes of 9th and 4th and has an amazing 8 top 5 finishes here in his last ten starts. I've bet him to win, and will have him in matchups as well. Let's hope he got his mechanical problems out of the way last week.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
Well, we all saw what happend last week as Jr. was poised to make his father proud. Whether it was because Newman saved the car after Jr. bumped him or whether it was Jr. just letting off instead of spinning him out, we know that the 8 car will be there again battling for the win. His odds are far from attractive however, so it's doubtful that I will play him to win it.
9 B. Elliott -
While I don't think "Awesome Bill" will win this race, I'm including him here for qualifying purposes. He should be a threat for the pole, as he has gotten both his poles this year at Atlanta and at Texas. He's also qualified 3rd and 4th in the last 2 Coca-Cola 600's. Go get 'em Bill!
12 R. Newman -
Well, we learned that last year wasn't a fluke for Newman at Charlotte. He likes this track a lot, and it will all come down to whether the car can last 600 miles. Last year, after winning the pole, the car lasted 11 laps and this year, the 12 team has had a tremendous amount of reliabiltiy issues. If you didn't get on him early, or wait until after qualifying, he will be completely out of value.
17 M. Kenseth -
Here's a guy returning to the track and the race that gave him his first Winston Cup victory back in 2000. He's second in points, and has been nothing but impressive at almost every track this year. He will be there at the end of this one and will be in my win set. Just have to hope he continues his mediocre/poor qualifying runs here so that +1500 or higher can be available.
18 B. Labonte -
The 1.5 mile speedways that Labonte used to chew up and spit out have not been kind to him so far in 2002. You cannot overlook him here, but the question of reliability is huge with this team. I would normally be all over the 18 car, but will not likely include him unless I can find +1800 or higher. Just too unpredictable this year.
19 J. Mayfield -
This 19 car could be the "wild car" this weekend. I'm right on the fence with this team, knowing that Mayfield had some pretty decent success here with his previous employer. He's a car that I will have to look long and hard if he is consitently up there on the practice sheets.
20 T. Stewart -
Tony should be favored to win this race, and he is. Just really hoping for a 25th or higher qualifying in order to perhaps get his odds up to +1000. I mean what more do you need that finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th the last four races? There is one number left in that sequence race fans.
22 W. Burton -
Here's a guy that really hasn't been heard from in quite a while. His finishes at this track cannot be overlooked, and he comes with some nice value. It's another case of seeing how he looks in race trim, but he's another one that could surprise.
24 J. Gordon -
Is this the week? Is it? Okay...let me play the recording: "Gordon and his team are too good not to win a race soon. He's had great success at (insert track here), so don't be surprised to finally see him in victory lane again." Copy and paste that for next week's write-up.
28 R. Rudd -
Well, the momentum this team had gained was quickly eliminated at Richmond 3 weeks ago. But again, he was up front and would have easily challenge for that win. This is a team that will win a race in the next month. Must keep an eye on him.
29 K. Harvick -
Including "Happy" here because for some reason, I think I'm somewhat worried that he might put a race together. It will take a lot for me to wager on him, but he does have me worried.
40 S. Marlin -
Even though Sterling won the fall race here last year, he has historically not had very impressive finishes at Charlotte. He lost the car he was going to race after wrecking it in the Winston, so it's tough to figure out what this team is going to do. Okay. I'll go out on a limb. The 40 will come from 25th back or further, lead a lap at some point, and finish his day in 8th.
41 J. Spencer -
Spencer has been better than average here, and had great qualifying and race runs here in 2001, albeit in the 26 garage. Let's see how he looks in practice. He may surprise.
48 J. Johnson -
"Either him or Newman will win a race in the next 4 I believe....current form suggests this team." That was the write-up given to this team before the California race. He won that one, so let's change it to say the following: "Either Newman will win his first race, or Johnson will win his 2nd......Current form does suggest this team." Seriously though, how good did he look last week? With no breakdowns, this rookie can easily do it again, and this time seal the deal with the checkers. BTW.....this is another guy that must be bet early, as his qualifying runs lead me to believe he will be in the top 10 or even the top 5 at the start of this race.
49 R. Hornaday -
Since this veteran took over for Shawna, we must include him as his experience and knowhow will undoubtebly lead to a win for this team very soon. LOL! Okay......just checking to see if anyone actually reads any of this.
88 D. Jarrett -
This team look horrible unloading off the truck last week. Has been up and down here the last 4 races, so he's another one that has me confused. I like the momentum they had gained prior to Richmond, but ever since that race and last week's performance, I'm not sure he will contend for this 600 mile race. However, if anyone can make mid-race adjustments, (which are crucial here due to the day/night racing conditions), Todd Parrott and his crew can. I'll see/hear what they have to say about their car.
97 K. Busch -
I'm really still in shock at how good this team and car have been this year. Busch is a very talented driver, and I loved how he spun out the 31 last week because he (and I) needed a caution. That was great. This kid will end up in the top 10 for sure. With good stops and some luck, he could easily take the checkers.
99 J. Burton -
Okay.....so basically, I REALLY like all the Roush cars this week. This team turned their horrid season around at this race last year, and basically used last week as a full fledged test session. A strong contender to win this race.

Sorry, about the length of this, but hey......It's been 3 weeks you know? Can you tell I'm antsy? ;)

Anyhow, as I did in California, and as I've mentioned before, I will be on the Jack Roush crew this week. I've already locked in the 6 car, the 12 and the 48, and will probably round out the win set with either the 20 or 8 depending on the price of course. But of course, that's still preliminary. ;)

Any input and opinions?
GLTA
 

grinin

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Huck,
I was about to lose all shreds of respect for you when you threw in the 49.

In reference to Qualifying I thought B Elliot would have the best shot at the pole here, but after looking back at his practices here a couple weeks back and qualifying effort at The Winston its got me scratching my head.

Qualifying wagers

2*Dodge +105 ov Pontiac
If Elliot does not revert to form I would say the odds are about right. Considering Mayfield was at the pole on the Winston Open and Spencer should be up front. The only competition I see is Nadeau who is going to want to prove something (especially since he will be lucky to be in the top 20 at the end of the race).


2* K Petty -110 to qual 21st - 43rd
Only thing that concerns me is his 14th place start at Texas. Everything else points to Kyle starting at the back of the pack.

Does anyone think that Rusty's broken toes on left foot will affect him in qualifying? I am leaning towards no effect in qual possibly some in race.
 
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djv

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grinin, No he will not use left foot for much. I know he has to clutch up in gear. But once there he's there. These guys are good enough a lot of time they get by with out useing the clutch. Now for the race his foot could get to hurting. This is one darn long race. That Dodge over Pontiac qlfing looks solid.
 
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Huckleberry

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All right Grinin....!!!!

All right Grinin....!!!!

Glad to see you here......if you are any kind of motorsports enthusiast, you have found the right place. It's just unreal the amount of knowledge and expertise there is in this particular forum.......I honestly hope I can remotely come close to contributing as much as 1837, Stanley, DJV and the many others have here. Seriously. You will love it.

Here are a few plays I made for Qualifying:

9 ov 40 -110 3 units
6 ov 17 -125 2 units
12 ov 97 -135 2 units
18 ov 99 -140 2 units
48 ov 41 -120 4 units (played this a few days ago and I guess I wasn't the only one...price is just crushed now!) :eek:

Seen the "Odds to Win the Pole", and they have the 12, 48 and 9 the favorites. As much as I wanted to play one, or all three of them, there is simply no value whatsoever IMO.
 

Huckleberry

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Adding some more NEWMAN!!!

Adding some more NEWMAN!!!

He's a huge threat for the pole, so let's sink or swim.......Adding:

12 ov 9 -130 3 units
12 ov 20 -130 3 units

So that's a total of 7 qualifying matchups for today's session.

GLTA
 

djv

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Huck be alittle carefull with Neuman. I believe he has blowen a couple motors this year. They may be a little careful in Qlfing. But I did play the 12 over the 9 for sure. I am still thinking on the 18 over the 99. GL to All.
 
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djv

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Some nice calls Huck.
Grinin, good job. Unless im missing something guys we all should have a little extra in the pockets.
Now for the race. Huck forget my worry about the 12. He's going raceing Sunday. That motor holds up, and that 48 can stay out of trouble. Those two young cats going to have alot to say about who wins. Jr will be tough and so will Tony. Im look-en for match ups where I don't pit these boys against each other. Will play these 4 against most others. Will be a little careful with the 18 and 24.
 

Huckleberry

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Qualifying worked out okay.....

Qualifying worked out okay.....

But I still can't believe Martin did not beat Kenseth........that was the whole day right there. He q'd much later and was MUCH faster in practice.............damn.

Oh well.......there will be some nice solid value with the race.

Go get 'em JJ!!!
 

Huckleberry

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Just can't pass this up.....

Just can't pass this up.....

Adding 1 unit play on #6 M. Martin at +3000 making it a 2.5 unit play at +2700.
 

Huckleberry

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Drivers to Win......

Drivers to Win......

I've finished rounding out my driver index. Here's what I'm going w/ today:

BTW, with all these big prices, I'm betting more drivers than I normally do. I cannot include both favorites, and only hope that if one of them does win, it's the 8 and not the 20.

ODDS TO WIN:
12 R. Newman +3300 1 unit
48 J. Johnson +2060 2.5 units
6 M. Martin +2700 2.5 units
97 K. Busch +3000 1 unit
19 J. Mayfield +4500 0.5 units
17 M. Kenseth +1800 1.5 units
99 J. Burton +1500 1.5 units
40 S. Marlin +1600 1 unit
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. +600 2 units

13.5 units invested.
 

Huckleberry

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And now the matchups.....

And now the matchups.....

MATCHUPS:
6 and 17 (Roush) OV 2 and 12 (Penske) -105 3 units
6 M. Martin ov 97 K. Busch -125 2 units
19 J. Mayfield ov 15 M. Waltrip -140 2 units
19 J. Mayfield ov 41 J. Spencer -125 2 units
1 S. Park ov 7 C. Atwood -130 2 units
30 J. Green ov M. Skinner -115 2 units

GLTA

I may add one or two more a bit later.....
 
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Myron

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Huckleberry I don't know who gave you 27-1 odds but WOW!

FWIW, I think Kenseth may have helped a little but take it any way you can get it. ;)
 

Huckleberry

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That's D*%M right.....

That's D*%M right.....

I'll take it any way..........sure, they are not as "obvious" as they are in F1, but you have to think that "The Cat in the Hat" had to say "Hey Matt.....easy there....you can only get 5 more points by winning, and Mark and a fan can win 1 million!"...........Does that make Pfizer/Viagara happy sponsors you think? I feel like I'm on a steady dose of Viagara right now!!!!!!!!! :D

Regardless, M. Martin's record at this track and his propensity to run in the top 5-10 this entire year made this a no brainer.

Getting 25-1 before Q was nice, but 30-1 after was icing (therefore the 27-1 average).

Be back later with the weekly/YTD updated record.
 
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