NASCAR - The Pennsylvania 500 @ POCONO

[Huckleberry]

Let's get back to some normalcy guys......the cream should rise to the top this week. I'm very confident we will have the winner of this race.

Through CHICAGO:
ODDS TO WIN:
Busch Series/Week: 0-2 -2.5 units
Winston Cup/Week: 0-10 -10 units
Overall Year: 8-93 +74.5 units
MATCHUPS:
Busch Series/Week: : 3-2 +0.8 units
Winston Cup Qualifying: 6-3 +4.95 units
Winston Cup/Week: 3-2 -0.55 units
Year: 56-48 +18.23 units

Total for the week: -7.3 units
Yearly Combined: +92.73 units

Through NEW HAMPSHIRE:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 0-7 -11 units
Overall Year: 8-100 +63.5 units
MATCHUPS:
Busch Series/Week: : 0-1 -5.2 units
Winston Cup Qualifying: 1-0 +5 units
Winston Cup/Week: 3-1 +11 units
Year: 60-50 +29.03 units

Total for the week: -0.2 units
Yearly Combined: +92.53 units

 

[Huckleberry]

Let's get started looking at the drivers for this week.

#2 R. WALLACE
Rusty managed to come from 2 laps down to post another impressive finish last week. Even though he hasn't really seemed to contend for many race wins this year, he is only a mere 127 points behind leader Sterling Marlin. Rusty has had pretty good success at Pocono over the years, as it basically takes good veteran drivers with a great motor to do well here. Here are Rusty's stats over the last 3 years at Pocono:

2002 #1: Qual: 5th (set by points) Race: 9th
2001 #2: Qual: 22nd Race: 6th
2001 #1: Qual: 16th Race: 16th
2000 #2: Qual: 2nd Race: 1st
2000 #1: Qual: 1st Race: 10th
1999 #2: Qual: 17th Race: 18th
1999 #1: Qual: 14th Race: 43rd

With his consistency this year, along with the good Penske horsepower, Rusty has to be given consideration for the race win and matchups.
So far, I've seen 15-1 at 4 shops that have their odds up.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#6 M. Martin
Martin got his FIRST finish outside of the top 10 since he finished 41st at Dover 5 races ago. Before that, he acculmulated 3 top 5 finishes. This team is not 55 points away from the points lead by mistake. They have been very competetive and have avoided the "bad luck bug" that strikes so many teams. While the 6 has never won at Pocono Raceway, they have been more than racey (if that's the proper spelling). I look for this team to be in the hunt in this race. Here are Mark Martin's last 3 years at Pocono:

2002 #1: Qual: 6th (set by points) Race: 2nd
2001 #2: Qual: 3rd Race: 7th
2001 #1: Qual: 5th Race: 5th
2000 #2: Qual: 3rd Race: 43rd
2000 #1: Qual: 6th Race: 5th
1999 #2: Qual: 2nd Race: 3rd
1999 #1: Qual: 10th Race: 5th

Therefore, we are looking at a driver than has hit the TOP 5 in 5 out of the last 7 races, with one 7th place finish in last year's 2nd race here. While I'm not convinced that Roush horsepower is comparable to the other typical high HP teams, I still think that Martin's know-how will be able to keep him near the front most of the day. He is another driver I will be looking to play this week in both matchups and odds to win.

At this time, I've seen 8-1 up to 10-1. While you may think that's enough to play him early considering his average qualifying position over the last 7 races here, (excluding the rain outs) which is 4.8, the 6 has not been a great qualifier over the course of this year. If I was fortunate enough to find the 6 at 15-1 or better, I would jump on it in a second, but until I find that price, I will wait.

 

[Huckleberry]

#8 D. EARNHARDT, JR.
I have to say that I was very surprised w/ the run Jr. put together last week, as he obviously had a very good car at a track that has not been particularly very good for him. This leads me to believe that they "may" have turned the corner and are going to start putting good finishes together and contending for races wins. As most rookies do, the 8 struggled early at Pocono, but has put some decent runs together lately, including last years great battle w/ the 18 car late in the race.

2002 #1: Qual: 14th (set by points) Race: 12th
2001 #2: Qual: 12th Race: 2nd
2001 #1: Qual: 6th Race: 20th
2000 #2: Qual: 15th Race: 13th
2000 #1: Qual: 15th Race: 19th

If Jr. qualifies around his average, I don't think we'll see the 12 to 15-1 price drop on him, so I'm not looking to play him before we see the car on the track. However, he's another one I'm seriously considering.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#9 B. ELLIOTT
Here's a driver that has as good a chance as any of the 30-1 guys out there right now. The main problem w/ the 9 is contending for race wins LATE in the race, and not early, as he seems to have done for the better part of this year. However, I liked his run in the first race and and while his finishes here have been atrocious over the last 7 races, I can see a run like the one they put togehter in this race last year.

2002 #1: Qual: 9th (set by points) Race: 30th
2001 #2: Qual: 14th Race: 4th
2001 #1: Qual: 23rd Race: 27th
2000 #2: Qual: 7th Race: 31st
2000 #1: Qual: 25th Race: 38th
1999 #2: Qual: 37th Race: 39th
1999 #1: Qual: 4th Race: 31st

Those finishes are a huge concern, and even though Bill has been a great qualifier here, I still have to wait to see the track. I may change my mind if I see a price in the 40's however, but for now, I have to side w/ Alan and consider the 9 a decent long shot probability.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#12 R. NEWMAN
It's going to happen soon; it just has to. However, it would surprise me if Newman's first win came at only his 2nd visit to Pocono. Then again, being surprised has been the norm recently, so I won't let that cloud my judgement.
For some reason, I also like this team's chances for this weekend, even though I really believe we will see a Pocono veteran win this. Of course, there is not much track history for Newman here, but there is for this 12 team who has put togehter some victory lane runs for previous driver Jeremy Mayfield. If, just one time, they can just last and avoid flat tires, they can be a player come Sunday.
I do not like leaving out fast cars at Pocono, so this is going to be a tough one for me this weekend. I can't see risking matchups on the 12 quite yet, but I'm really close to pulling the early trigger if I can find 20-1 or better. Of course, the best I've seen is 15-1 so far.

2002 #1: Qual: 15th (set by points) Race: 32nd
Was 3rd and 6th fastest in both practice sessions.

The 12 is taking the same car he had at the first Pocono race, which is also the car that was so good at Chicago. It also won the Winston.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#15 M. WALTRIP
Not much of a write-up here, but I believe the 15 warrants a look in the right matchups this week. This team has really been running well ever since Talladega, and was looking pretty good before blowing up at Chicago. An 8th place finish in the first race here, so I'll be keeping an eye on him. However, UNTIL he wins a race with no plate on on the motor, I don't think I can play him.

#17 M. KENSETH
No reason to think that this team will not be all over the top 10 if they stay out of trouble. They have a decent history there, and take the same car they had in the first race which ran pretty well. That car broke something in the transmission, so I'll have to hope that doesn't happen again. Based on his odds of 10-1, he's not one of my favorites to win this race, but I'm sure I will have him in the right matchups.

2002 #1: Qual: 4th (set by points) Race: 35th
2001 #2: Qual: 24th Race: 14th
2001 #1: Qual: 31st Race: 6th
2000 #2: Qual: 24th Race: 5th
2000 #1: Qual: 29th Race: 14th

I am looking to play against 17 in qualifying matchups, but the only one I've seen so far has been w/ the 15 at -140. Can't bite on that one, but I will keep looking. He has been qualifying better recently, so it has to be someone more consistent at this track.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#18 B. LABONTE
Now. If it wasn't for the nonsense of the last few weeks, I would seriously barely mention this team this week. But if the 29 can defend his win at Chicago, then why can't the 18 do the same this week? It's been said that the 18 was struggling in 2001 when he pulled this win off last year. He's struggling in 2002 as well, so why can't it happen? Let's take a closer look.
2001 9 races (2 months worth) prior to this race: 7, 39, 5, 7, 8, 13, 12, 5, and 10th. AVG. finish of 11.78.
2002 9 races (2 months worth) prior to this race: 13, 18, 32, 13, 24, 25, 16, 14, and 32nd. AVG. finish of 20.77.
In addition to that, we can argue that the change made by Childress (switching crews) was a main factor in their resurgence. Anyhow, as much as I looked at this team this year, and the way they are running, I would only play them at 40-1 or higher. And that might even be pushing it. However, his record here is somewhat impressive, but it's going to take him beating me this week to learn that the last 2 weeks were not total and complete flukes.

2002 #1: Qual: 19th (set by points) Race: 26th
2001 #2: Qual: 11th Race: 1st
2001 #1: Qual: 18th Race: 8th
2000 #2: Qual: 13th Race: 6th
2000 #1: Qual: 11th Race: 13th
1999 #2: Qual: 4h Race: 1st
1999 #1: Qual: 3rd Race: 1st

This "can't get a top 10 to save their lives" and winning races has to stop right here this week.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

NOTE: Sorry guys, but I transposed a note by mistake without looking at the field close enough. The 2001 #1 Pocono race was NOT SET BY POINTS. They qualified that way.

My apologies.

Have made a couple of early win plays, as well as 1 qualifying wager that just looks wrong to me.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
6 ov 97 -105 7 units: I know 97 has qualified much better this year, and the 6 has been average, but looking at how Martin has qualified here in the past, I have to bite on this one.

ODDS TO WIN
9 B. Elliott +4000 0.5 units
Assuming he qualifies near the front and that was the price I was looking for.

6 M. Martin +1100 2 units
Same assumption. Since I don't have the benefit or Martin being low in the WC standings, if he qualifies near the front, his odds will drop in the 6 or 7 to 1 vicinity.

 

[Huckleberry]

After looking more closely, I have to add one more driver before qualifying:

ODDS TO WIN
9 B. Elliott +4000 0.5 units
6 M. Martin +1100 2 units
28 R. Rudd +1100 2 units - his lap times (in both practice and qualifying) have been in the top 2 in almost every session in the last 3 races. I hope he does qualify in the 20's so I can play more on him.

 

[Huckleberry]

#19 J. MAYFIELD
Not much of a write-up here as well, as I simply cannot see Mayfield returning to his "glory days" at Pocono this year. However, considering he does have 2 of his 3 Winston Cup wins at this track, he did deserve a look. Sb.com did open him at 85-1 on Monday, and after thinking about it, that price really did offer some very good value on him. They are currently sitting at 30-1, meaning there were defitnately some takers. However, at any price that is available now, I just cannot play a driver that has average finishes of 28.55 (and that includes his 2nd at LV) at speedways this year. This team doesn't seem to have any momentum at this point, and while at top 15 or 20 is very possible, I simply cannot see them contending for a race win this week.

#20 T. STEWART
It really is amazing that as soon as this team sniffs 4th place or higher in the WC standings, something happens to them like last week. Regardless, this is a venue where they have been very consistent at ever since Stewart's rookie year in 1999. Whether they can win a race in a Pontiac on a super-speedway type track remains to be seen, but they aren't switching manufacturers just for fun. 20 should lock up a top 10 or better this week, but combined with theaero uncertainty of the Pontiac and the odds of 7-1 around, I seriously doubt I will have Stewart to win this race. Looks like it's going to have to be matchups this week.

2002 #1: Qual: 7th (set by points) Race: 7th
2001 #2: Qual: 5th Race: 3rd
2001 #1: Qual: 4th Race: 7th
2000 #2: Qual: 1st Race: 26th
2000 #1: Qual: 9th Race: 6th
1999 #2: Qual: 12th Race: 4th
1999 #1: Qual: 12th Race: 6th

Those are some impressive finishes here. If there is an issue in qualifying, and they start in the 30's somewhere, they may be a team to look into around the 15-1 range.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#22 W. BURTON
Someone funny was going to win last week, and this was the lucky team. However, don't let that fool you or lead you to believe it was simply a "lucky" win. This team has it all together now, I believe, and should contend for wins from here on out. And what a great track for them to continue this at! Check out these finishes in the last 7 races:
33, 38, 40, 28, 27, 40 and 29. Impressive! Okay......enough nasty sarcasm. Bottom line is I will look to play against the 22 in any matchup I can. They have had nothing but horrible finishes at non-plate tracks, and I just don't see it changing this week.

#24 J. GORDON
It really makes me chuckle some every time I look at the 24's record at the weekly tracks. I mean, it's just ridiculously littered with top 10's and 5's EVERY week. I just really do not know what else to say concerning this team that hasn't been already said. The odds are horrible every week on this guy, and players continue to play him expecting that this race "losing" streak cannot possibly continue. I may have to play him myself every week to make sure that he doesn't break it.....for a little piece of mind if you will. You just know he's going to pull one out when it's least expected. I for one, have no clue when that will be.

2002 #1: Qual: 3rd (set by points) Race: 5th
2001 #2: Qual: 8th Race: 8th
2001 #1: Qual: 14th Race: 2nd
2000 #2: Qual: 5th Race: 3rd
2000 #1: Qual: 5th Race: 8th
1999 #2: Qual: 7th Race: 31st
1999 #1: Qual: 17th Race: 2nd

Basically, scattered around a few win wagers, I look to play the 24 when he is +110 or better in matchups, or against him in when paired w/ someone who is his equal and he's -140 or thereabouts. You rarely see 24 paired with anyone but the 20. But when he is and the price is right, I play him. I thought that last week's matchup w/ 24 ov 17 was off. Obvioulsy, I was the one who was off in that one, but 17's horrible luck at the finish gave 24 the win in that matchup. Pure luck. But that's how I play the 24 this year FWIW.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#28 R. RUDD
It's very possible that some may suggest that I have a fixation on this driver, as I pretty much play him every week. I wouldn't disagree with that. I have simply been VERY impressed w/ their overall performance throughout this year. Of course, I really wish all this "silly season" nonsense would get settled (supposed to happen this weekend I guess), so this team can just go back to concentrating on winning races. Basically, 28 has been as dominant as they come at Pocono over the last 5 races....interestingly enough, his teammate is the other......He only has 2 top 5's in those 5 races, but was running up front and fast in every race. If anyone can handicap when and if a car will blow a tire or transmission or get caught up in someone else's mess, then please let me know. I simply have to ignore most of that in cases like this. I've already played him to win, and I intend to play more on him, escpecially if he has practice sessions of 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 1st, and 1st like he has the last 5. I also love when drivers return to a track that is still very fresh in their minds, where they know they had the race won.

2002 #1: Qual: 10th (set by points) Race: 17th
2001 #2: Qual: 14th Race: 2nd
2001 #1: Qual: 1st Race: 1st
2000 #2: Qual: 14th Race: 38th
2000 #1: Qual: 3rd Race: 3rd
1999 #2: Qual: 35th Race: 27th
1999 #1: Qual: 16th Race: 15th

#29 K. HARVICK
#30 J. GREEN
#31 R. GORDON
Honestly, I just do not know what to make of this RCR resurgence here. I mean come on. They are one 12th place finish away from having all three drivers in the TOP 10 of the last 2 races, including 1 win. That is impressive, so they cannot be discounted. While it's very unlikely that I will play anyone of them to win this race, I think I can find some value in matchups this week. Nothing to speak of success wise for any of them at this track, (29 has 2 top 20's), but all these good finishes are showing me that they may have found something. We'll see this week.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Adding an early matchup. I hate the ones that seem too easy. I feel like a sucker, but to me, this is off the board ridiculous.

MATCHUPS
40 ov 19 -139 6 units

#32 R. CRAVEN
Not a threat to win the race, however I'm looking at him this week as a strong top 10-15 contender. He has Yates horsepower, and we all know how good that seems to work out for 88/28. Only 2 decent finishes of 14th and 10th (last 2 races here), but call this a hunch.

#40 S. MARLIN
This is the kind of track the 40 needs this week, if they hope to keep the point lead another week. I'm not overly enamored w/ him as far as winning this race, but I do see a pretty solid, typical Marlin finish of between 8th and 3rd this week. They will never admit to point racing this early, however, they know full well that top 5's and 10's will give them the title, so I expect to see the same conservative Marlin this week. Now, if he somehow has a rocket this week, I'm sure he'll do everything he can to win it, but if his car is as average as it has been recently, he'll be more than happy with a 6th place finish or so.

2002 #1: Qual: 1st (set by points) Race: 4th
2001 #2: Qual: 10th Race: 16th
2001 #1: Qual: 2nd Race: 4th
2000 #2: Qual: 34th Race: 42nd
2000 #1: Qual: 31st Race: 22nd
1999 #2: Qual: 9th Race: 28th
1999 #1: Qual: 1st Race: 4th

Nothing outstanding to say the least, but more than good enough for him to beat the 19 this week IMO. I'm going to need 15-1 or better and see him running REAL well to pull the trigger on him winning the race though.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

48 J. JOHNSON
Super Rookie is back at a 1.5 mile or bigger track this week, so if this years previous results are any indication, watch out! In every single race that is a "speedway" race, this team has only TWO finishes outside the top 10, and those are horrible 14th and 15th place finishes. That to me is simply incredible! Therefore, I have to think (reach huh?) that they will have a pretty good run this weekend. I would love to have a differing point of view like "this is just the type of track that can give a rookie w/ over confidence some trouble" or "this run has to end sometime; rookie teams in WC just don't have this kind of success", but NOTHING has shown me any of those things are likely. His odds are not to my liking unfortunately, so I will have to take a chance and hope for a poor run in qualifying. If not, I will have to take my 6 or 7-1 and like it.

2002 #1: Qual: 2nd (set by points) Race: 3rd
He was 4th fastest in both practice sessions as well.

#77 D. BLANEY
Somehow, I like this team to surprise some folks this weekend. While we are all well aware how much "race luck" plays in accumulating good solid race finishes, so does this team. No luck is exactly why they only have one top 10 finish over the last 5 races (at Pocono btw). But I'm sure I'm not the only one to notice that bright yellow car running in the top 10 for a lot of laps recently, and that success combined with good track success at Pocono in the past, makes me like 'em this weekend. I have seen as high as 70-1, and while I don't expect them to be battling the likes of 88/28/24/48 and other all day long, this is just the team to throw another "HUH?" into this year's race winners. The results below are the results that the 77 team has accumulated at Pocono with Robert Pressley (besides this year's 1st race of course). Blaney's results are not bad either when he was in the #93 Amoco car.

2002 #1: Qual: 21st (set by points) Race: 10th
2001 #2: Qual: 16th Race: 9th
2001 #1: Qual: 42nd Race: 14th
2000 #2: Qual: 20th Race: 14th
2000 #1: Qual: 28th Race: 11th
1999 #2: Qual: 33rd Race: 23rd
1999 #1: Qual: 43rd Race: 35th

Not sure how many matchups we'll see with the 77, but I will look to play any that are made available. At this time, I've seen him against the 21. I may play that one, as 77 has a better average finish (16.47 to 20.71), but I'm not thrilled about it.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Well, instead of beating myself up if the 12 puts up one of his patented qualifying runs, I'm going to take the 15-1 right now, so I can sleep peacefully tonight.

Currently, I have:
ODDS TO WIN
9 B. Elliott +4000 0.5 units
6 M. Martin +1100 2 units
28 R. Rudd +1100 2 units
12 R. Newman +1500 1.5 units

GLTA

 

[djv]

Huck I try to read all you post just don't have time. But I hope that bet on old number 9 was for qlfing. That was a nice win for you if so.

 

[Huckleberry]

DJV......NP.....I simply post in an effort to help out. Read what you can. And NO! Unfortunately that bet on the 9 was for the race. Still a pretty decent price to have the pole sitter at I guess.

The "what seemed too easy" qualifying matchup did cash, even though it was far from that. At least it is a good start to the weekend.

Not sure whether this was intentional or not, (doubtful), but since it is available at this time, I have to bite on some of this tremendous value. Of course, I do not believe any these drivers will see victory lane on Sunday, but nor did I believe the 29 and 22 would be the last 2 race winners either. Therefore:

ODDS TO WIN
FIELD +12500 (Basically the 10 car) 0.3 units
15 M. Waltrip +4500 0.5 units
19 J. Mayfield +5500 0.5 units

Let's get after 'em boys! I still have a good feeling about this race! Real good!

GLTA

Would also love to hear some feedback! I feel like I'm talking to myself this week. :shrug:

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Huck:

First, I do view the forum. I look for your picks for sure. I browse the driver info some. Basically, I'd say write as much as you feel comfortable with. I do like seeing the little tidbits you come up with, though, on why it may or may not be a certain driver's week.

Second, I'll throw out a few value-based matchups I'm playing:
(pin) Park(+118) vs Craven
(wsex) Spencer(+130) vs Sadler
...Again, the concept's pretty simple. I scan the Win Odds at 4-5 books, and when I find a matchup dog w/ shorter avg win odds, I take the plunge and take my chances. Clearly, the one shaky assumption here is that reliability and consistency translates from Win Odds to matchups. You Nascar veterans would surely have a better feel for this than me.

Third, Huck, can I ask for your expertise on one item. I have an outstanding +2000 Field ticket (including J.Johnson) to win the Winston Cup. I can hedge back at -1000 anti-Johnson. Any feel for Johnson's chances the rest of the way? Is there any precedent for such a young guy winning the Cup? Or are the Young Guns the way of the Nascar world nowadays?

Enjoy the race, Huck.

 

[Huckleberry]

Hey Chucky....I have to say that I like your thinking concerning those matchups you are playing. How has that been working overall?

About the 48 to win the Cup...I'm not sure I can help all that much, because even though I'm not a long time nascar follower (only the last 4 years), I am a big believer in the history concerning this sport. With that, rookies simply do not win the Winston Cup title. I think Earnhardt won the title in his first year in 1980, but I'm not sure if he was classified a rookie...but close enough.
In addition, the points leader at the halfway point of the season has gone on to win it every year since 1993. To many people, that doesn't mean anything. This is just my opinion.
However, the 48 doesn't look like any "ordinary" rookie, and this is the point in the year that they return to tracks they have already raced at (and raced well). I would hold on to it at +2000. He should run well this weekend, and at Indy. Maybe before the road course, you can get off some, but hopefully by that time it can be lower than -1000.

Wrapped up the drivers for this week guys. Here goes.

ODDS TO WIN
9 B. Elliott +4000 0.5 units
6 M. Martin +1111 3 units (Added 1 unit at +1500)
28 R. Rudd +1000 3 units (Added 1 unit at +800)
12 R. Newman +1511 1.7 units (Added 0.2 units at +1600)
FIELD +12500 (Basically the 10 car) 0.3 units
15 M. Waltrip +4500 0.5 units
19 J. Mayfield +5500 0.5 units
48 J. Johnson +1300 2.5 units
2 R. Wallace +1500 1 unit (came down to him or the 97)
17 M. Kenseth +1800 1 unit (very late addition....wasn't going to play him, but 18-1 is to tough to pass up)

More than usual this week with 10 drivers and 14 units. I hope it all works out.
FWIW, if I had to take 3 drivers right now, they would be the 6, 48, and 28.

For anyone who likes the 40 out there, I've seen 15-1, and as much as I would have liked to play him, I just feel the same way about 'em as I did early in the week. Top 5 and happy with it.

Working on matchups, but they all seem VERY tough at first glance.

GLTA