NASCAR - The Pepsi 400 at DAYTONA

Huckleberry

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Let's get back to racin' boys! No more off weeks until the end of the year, and really not a better place than Daytona to get the last 20 races started.

Already, all I've heard (Totally Nascar - Nascar Victory Lane) is how impossible it is to pick a winner for this race. I'm starting to think the same thing, because if 8 or 15 are out of contention, it REALLY will be a complete toss up.

I'm working on this week's write-up and will have it posted soon, but I wanted to post my early qualifying wagers. These 3 stuck out without much work.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS

48 J. Johnson ov 24 J. Gordon -130 4 units
2 plate races=2 poles. This one won't be a breeze, but -130 is the wrong price IMO.
22 W. Burton ov 14 S. Compton -140 5 units
Again with this one. Had it at Talladega and won by like 0.005 secs or something. Unfortunately for me, I'm pretty stubborn and simply feel that this matchup was initially created believing that Compton was still in the 92 Dodge car. 22 has q efforts of 5th, 2nd, 6th, 6th, and 6th the last 5 trips to Daytona. I'll take my chances.
9 B. Elliott ov 17 M. Kenseth -130 5 units
17 races much better than he qualifies and Bill likes the top 10 here at Daytona. This one really shouldn't be close.

What do you all think?
 

djv

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Huck been so busy with my girls 14 and under soft ball team. Im gett-en far behind on this stuff. But the fast guys love this track. And they like it at night. So hot and humid there. Becarefull of some of the older boys this one may ware some them out by end of race. Jr, Waltrip, Johnson, all should be in the hunt. If the 12 keeps the engine in one piece he will be strong. Of course 24 is due to role. 88, And 28 tough as hell here.
Burton over Compton I like big time. I have to stay away from 48 and 24 going against each other. I agree the 48 has it all going now. But that 24 is just so over due. Not sure what to say about your 9 over 17. I almost like it the other way. By the way Martin keeps him self in great shape. He may be a top 5 car just because of that. Just a thought. Martin could be good in a match or two.
 
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USC Gamecock

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What a great race this week!! At this time last summer I was miserable studying for the Bar exam, but I took the night off to watch JR. complete his almost impossible feat, what a night it was!!


This week, I'm gonna be lookin at the 48 (just can't ignore how strong he's been lately); the 17 (with those consistent 14 second pit stops he's always a strong contender); the 6 (see 48 above); and the 97 (I think he's about due if he can stay out of trouble...just a hunch).

GLTA
 

Huckleberry

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That was an awesome race!

That was an awesome race!

I really can't remember a race with more emotion than last year's Pepsi 400. Still get chills thinking about it......can't wait to watch it again on speed this Friday.

DJV...your priorities are in the right place with your girls. This is going to be a great race though....can't duplicate last year, but I think it'll be a good one nonetheless. Also, those matchups I played are QUALIFYING ONLY matchups......seems as if you overlooked that based on your comments. Apologies if that's not the case of course.

Myron - Why do you like those 2 matchups? You are talking qualifying right?

And I'm 100% with you on the 97 USC Gamcock......as you can see below.

Sorry about the length of this, but there was a lot to say, you know?

Race 17 out of 36
at Daytona International Speedway - 2.5 mile Tri-Oval - 160 laps for 400 miles.

This Week's Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Thursday, July 4th
3:00 p.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice (scheduled for 2 hours)
8:15 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying (FX)

Friday, July 5th
4:30 p.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice (scheduled for 45 minutes)
6:15 p.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice (scheduled for 45 minutes)

Saturday, July 6th
7:30 p.m. Start of The Pepsi 400 (FOX)

Restrictor plate race #3 out of 4 on the Winston Cup schedule is being run under the lights this Saturday Night. I don't think I'll ever forget last year's race here, seeing that 8 car power through from 7th on the last restart and take one hell of an emotional win. That race cemented the fact that DEI was a plate race force, as the 8 has now won 3 out of the last 4 of them. Barring something happening like it did in the 500 earlier in the year, the 8 and 15 will be there again. However, there simply is no value whatsoever in betting these two right now at most books, forcing me to wait until after qualifying. One positive out of these low odds though, is the fact that there are some pretty decent prices on drivers who have historically run very well here. The following list includes drivers that do not normally make it on a week to week basis, but deserve a mention at this venue.

The early drivers to watch:
1 S. Park -
Although Park is part of the DEI stable, it seems he has not benefitted whatsover from the engineering and power that the 8 and 15 seem to have. Combine that with the 1's way below average season, and he's a total no play.
2 R. Wallace -
While Rusty can't seem to break through at Daytona, that doesn't mean he doesn't run well. I look for the 2 to be very competetive this weekend and will not be afraid to back him in matchups. It will take seeing some real good things in the practices and at least 25-1 to bet him to win though.
6 M. Martin -
Here's another Ford to keep an eye on. **By the way, there has been talk about the 1/4 inch added back to the spoiler of the Fords for this race, so keep a good eye on practices and what the Ford drivers have to say..if anything** Martin now sits 2nd in points and will look to keep this miracle season going. I like him to have a nice run this Saturday.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
This race couldn't come at a better time for this team. They have been in a complete nose dive ever since winning at Talladega, and should be a major factor for this race. Impossible to bet the 8 though what with the very low odds and the problems that are plaguing them right now.
9 B. Elliott -
Here's a guy that offers some great value IMO. Seen him around at 25-1, and if any play is made before qualifying, this may be it. He should qualify well, so that price may not be around afterwards. It's either feast of famine for Elliott at Daytona though, so it's going to be tough to include him in matchups, but 25-1 is quite attractive.
12 R. Newman -
Rookies do not historically do very well at plate races, as drafting (and finding a partner) is arguably the most important aspect of these races. I'm still not sold that they have their reliability issues licked, so I will not look to include the 12 this week in any aspect.
15 M. Waltrip -
Yeah, we all know how good this team has been at the plate races. But Waltrip has been just great the last 2 months and has actually been a threat to win at other race tracks. 8-1 is not nearly enough for me to pull the trigger however, but I will look to include him in as many matchups as I can. Without issues, he's in the top 5.
17 M. Kenseth -
Far from impressive at this track in his short career, so he's a tough one to figure out. This seems to be a track that suits him, so I'll have to keep an eye on him in practices and see what he has to say about his car.
18 B. Labonte -
My boy continues to struggle through this season. Hopefully this extra week off will help them figure something/anything that can help turn this reason into something remotely respectable. Would take 30-1 for me to bet him in this race, and even that may not be enough.
20 T. Stewart -
I'm sure everyone remembers the week this team had in February. Fast, fast, and then faster. Of course, they blew an engine 2 laps into the race, so we'll never now if TStew could have joined the ranks of plate winners. He too is pretty low at 8-1 for this race though, so well have to wait until after qualifying like most of the others. He should be a real contender for this one, even though the recent finishes at Daytona suggest otherwise.
21 E. Sadler -
Not really sure how Sadler and the 21 team has managed finishes of 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 visits to Daytona, but he's gotta be worth a look at prices around the 35-1 range.
22 W. Burton -
I bet the Daytona 500 seems like years ago for this team right about now. Every week something horrible happens to them, whether it be a wreck, transmission or engine failure. Hopefully they can get some luck and have all those mechanical demons go away, but I just don't see how I can bet him at this point. Besides in qualifying of course.
24 J. Gordon -
Okay. I'll be honest. I thought he had the Sears Point race in the bag and was going to perch himself atop the standings once again. But miraculously, 24 broke a rear gear and was out of contention. I refuse to bet him to win a race until he does. He'll be in his customary spot in the top 10 all race long, so I will look for him in the right matchups.
28 R. Rudd -
I think the little demon messing with Rudd all year long had a little too much Chardonnay and thought 44 was 28 at Sears Point. It sure was nice to see Rudd finally get win, as he has been one of the hottest drivers over the last 10 races. He has been very average here, but cannot be ignored based on his current form. I will keep a close eye on him.
40 S. Marlin -
It's really a miracle that the 40 still has the point lead after finishing 43rd in the last race. They have been way below average lately, but should rebound this weekend. If not, then they can forget about the title. Marlin needs a top 5 bad this week, but I'm just not that confident they can do it. Practices will tell the tale as to whether I play him or not.
48 J. Johnson -
He was a few laps away from taking over the point lead (or coming within 10pts or something), before misery finally hit this team for what seemed like the first time this year. Well, 48 is going for his 3rd straight pole at a plate track, and if he gets it, or is even close, his 12-1 or so will not be around. This is someone to grab before qualifying, but I just don't think a rookie can win a plate race. This is the one rookie that could easily make me eat those words.
88 D. Jarrett -
Another Ford to keep an eye on this weekend. Jarrett has had awesome success at this track, and his current form suggests that he will be a player.
97 K. Busch -
Well, this kid really, REALLY surprised me at Sears Point, as he was between me and a real big day. I loved him at Talladega, and I love him now. The drafting issue is a concern however, but I will most likely include him as one of my drivers to win at 20-1. I really love the 97's chances this week.
99 J. Burton -
The last of the Roush drivers listed, JB should have himself a pretty decent weekend. He's a top 15 for sure, so I will have my eye on him in the right matchups.

Other drivers to keep an eye on are the 33 of Mike Wallace, and the 55 of Bobby Hamilton, which are both Andy Petree cars. They have had much more success at Talladega, but Petree's plate program is among the best, so they are worth looking at depending on how they run prior to Saturday. There has also been a lot of talk about the 09 of Geoffrey Bodine due to his impressive 3rd place finish in the 500 and his equally good finish of 12th at Talladega. This team only runs at plate tracks right now, and seem to have something figured out. 125-1 is available for those hoping for a miracle.

I'm sorry, but I forgot to mention the entry of another car that has an outside shot a a pretty decent finish, the 98 of K. Wallace. This is a car built by DEI which managed a very solid 5th place finish at Talladega, before being penalized for going below the yellow line and finishing "officially" 21st. If it's DEI, and there's a plate on the carburator, he has to be considered.

GLTA
 
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Huckleberry

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Forget it Mryon....

Forget it Mryon....

Just saw the two matchups you were talking about....same place I bet my 3.

What was the opening number on 1 ov 77? Was is -130?

Thanks.
 

Huckleberry

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I just had to make my first play on the race. If 15 qualifies like he should, I don't think I'll ever see 13-1 again.

ODDS TO WIN
15 M. Waltrip +1300 1.5 units
 

djv

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Huck, sorry I did have it mixed up. For Qlfing I like just what you have. And if you can find 17 over 9 for a race match up. I would play it that way. Happy 4th everyone and good luck.
 

Huckleberry

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I totally agree on 17 ov 9 for the race DJV.......Kenseth usually gets into some other driver's problems at the last few plate races, but he should be there this week.

Made a couple of plays on the Busch race earlier. If you guys think the Cup race is a crapshoot, then this is the like hitting the superball. However, I still see some value.

BUSCH SERIES ODDS TO WIN
59 S. Compton +1800 1 unit
Field (Includes 2, 5, 18, 23) +1200 1 unit

More later hopefully.
 

Huckleberry

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Added a couple more Busch Series plays.......this place left 'em up through q, so I thought I should take advantage of the value.

I know this is a late post, but I posted at the other place and forgot to do it here.

FWIW.....these are strictly value plays, meaning good drivers/teams who can run well in plate races. I will look to add 1 or 2 of the top contenders sometime tomorrow or Friday.

BUSCH SERIES ODDS TO WIN
33 T. Raines +4000 .20 unit
21 Jay Sauter +1500 1 unit
 

Huckleberry

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Guys, the 59 of Stacy Compton will start dead last in tomorrow's Busch race.

His time was thrown out by Nascar for using an unapproved shock.

If he has the car, it doesn't matter where he starts, but there is much more of a likelihood of getting caught up in a mess from back there.
 

Myron

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Huckleberry don't forget that they did something with the plates this year to make it more difficult to pass. At Daytona 500 there were very few lead changes. Compton has his work cut out for him starting last. The one to watch IMO is Scott Riggs. He was fastest in practice and happy hour and he starts near the front.
 

Huckleberry

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I'll answer even though you have that new avitar. :p Just kidding of course!

There really aren't that many places w/ Busch odds.......the starnet places really have the most to offer really. The other two places that I've seen are an unnamed book that will remain so per Jack's request, and 5dimes.

Anyone know of any others?
 

Huckleberry

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Adding some more on the 15 at 11-1.

ODDS TO WIN
15 M. Waltrip +1100 1.5 units

Total:
15 M. Waltrip +1200 3 units

Finalizing the Busch race, so I'll be back soon. Let's hope this rain let's up so we can get to racing tonight.
 

Huckleberry

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Final BUSCH SERIES plays

Final BUSCH SERIES plays

BUSCH SERIES ODDS TO WIN
59 S. Compton +1800 1 unit
Field (Includes 2, 5, 18, 23) +1200 1 unit
33 T. Raines +4000 .20 unit
21 Jay Sauter +1500 1 unit
7 R. Lajoie +800 1.5 units
87 J. Nemechek +600 1.3 units

MATCHUPS
18 McGlaughlin ov 47 Hmiel -130 3 units
23 Wimmer ov 37 Lepage -105 4 units
57 Keller ov 60 Biffle +130 2 units
7 Lajoie ov 87 Nemecheck -110 2 units

I decided to add the 7 (3 wins here in the last 6) and 87 as my last drivers. The 10 of Riggs is going to be threat if he can keep his car in one piece so he will really be a concern.

GLTA
 

Myron

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You forgot Oly***c and Bet365. Bet365 just posts odds to win but the other place usually has several matchups as well.

I decided to bet on 3 drivers - Jason Keller, Kevin Lepage and Michael Waltrip.

Let's see what happens. Unfortunately it looks like it won't be on Canadian TV since they're showing the Jays game :rolleyes:

Anybody have a racecast account # they want to let me use? :).
 

Huckleberry

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Not the start I was looking for...

Not the start I was looking for...

Let's hope tomorrow turn out better than today.

WC QUALIFYING
1-2 -7.2 units

BUSCH SERIES
Odds to Win: +3.1 units
Matchups: 1-3 -5.2 units

GLTA
 

Huckleberry

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Must play at this price!!

Must play at this price!!

Can't pass this up!

ODDS TO WIN
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. +650 3 units
 

Huckleberry

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Finalizing wagers for tonight.

Final ODDS TO WIN
15 M. Waltrip +1100 3 units
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. +650 3 units
48 J. Johnson +2200 1 unit
9 B. Elliott +4000 0.5 units
10 J. Benson +5000 0.5 units
20 T. Stewart +1100 2 units
97 K. Busch +2200 1 unit

Leaving out a ton of contenders obvioulsy, but I just have to go with the DEI dominance until it ends. 24, 40, and a slew of Fords like the 2, 6, 17, 88 and 28 should be up there all night long. I'm not very concerned with the Childress cars though. Even though the pole sitter won for the FIRST time in Busch Series history at Daytona last night, I don't see it happening tonight. It's been over 20 years since the pole sitter won this race.

MATCHUPS
2 ov 1 -130 5 units
21 ov 4 -130 5 units
20 ov 88 +130 2 units
19 ov 41 +145 3 units
43 ov 7 +145 3 units
15 ov 28 -130 3 units

That's it for now. Should be done hopefully. I'm leaving out a couple of matchups I like though, like 8 ov 24 at +105. 8 should not be a dog at a plate race under any circumstances, but if 24 happens to put the screws to me by winning, I'm not compounding that by adding that matchup. Also the 17 ov 48 matchup at +135 or better is very appealing also.

Let's have a great race. GLTA
 
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