NASCAR - The Pepsi 400 @ MICHIGAN

[Huckleberry]

Race #2 at Michigan guys. Remembering the dominant cars of the first race will give us a nice edge into this race.

Only problem will be finding some decent value. So far, I've seen the 4 drivers I'm looking at (Newman, Johnson, Elliott and Jarrett) at 10-1 or less. Not cool, but I'm sure to find a little higher as others go up.

I did make one race play so far though.

MATCHUPS
48 Johnson ov 99 J. Burton -130 4 units

BTW: For those that have not heard, Nascar made "another" rules concession for Chevrolet's and Pontiacs for this race only. This was done to help alleviate the constant 'aero push" the GM cars have been experiening while running in traffic. Here the article from nascar.com:

Pontiac, Chevy get air dam extensions for Mich.
By Marty Smith, Turner Sports Interactive August 8, 2002
11:26 AM EDT (1526 GMT)

CONCORD, N.C. -- NASCAR officials announced Thursday that Pontiac and Chevrolet teams have been given extensions to the front air dams of the Grand Prix and Monte Carlo, respectively, for next weekend's Pepsi 400 at Michigan International Speedway.


Pontiacs and Chevrolets will get extensions to the front air dams at Michigan next weekend. Credit: Autostock
Pontiac teams will get a half-inch increase, with the leading edge of the air dam not extending further than 1.5 inches forward of the bumper.

Chevrolet teams are getting a full inch extension, and their air dam must not extend further than 3.5 inches forward of the bumper.

Prior to this announcement, Pontiacs' air dams could extend one inch forward, while Chevrolets' air dams could extend 2.5 inches forward.

These modifications will be in place for next weekend only, pending further assessment by NASCAR officials.

 

[Scooterone]

Huck - What's your opinion of what effect, if any, the changes to these cars will have during this race?

I also have a question regarding practices. I've watched qualifying previously, but haven't yet watched a practice.
When the cars practice at the track, do they run alone as they do during qualifying, or do they run in a group?
If they run alone (which I've assumed they do) then we won't learn anything as to the effect of the auto changes until the cars run in traffic during the race itself.

 

[Huckleberry]

Tough call on the effect that will have Scooter......will have to watch closely both of the Saturday practices, especially at the average lap times.

As far as watching practices, even the first one has a lot of cars on the track, but when a team is ready to make mock qualifying run, they wait to be pretty close to alone, because drivers and crew chiefs have said that as long as you can see a car in front of you, you can pick up a hint of the draft.

The Saturday practices will help us learn a lot more of the possible effects on both the Chevys and Pontiacs. Driver comments will be very important as well.

Added a few more plays:

ODDS TO WIN
12 R. Newman +1300 2 units
9 B. Elliott +1300 0.78 units (would have played him for 1 unit if I would have been allowed to - however, I will only look to add enough to make it a 1 unit play. Unless I can find better than 13-1 of course )
77 D. Blaney +7500 0.2 units (with this being such a huge gas mileage track, you just never know.)

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Change that on B. Elliott. Now that it is confirmed that he is taking the same car that has his 3 wins (Homestead, Pocono and The Brickyard) and 2 poles (w/ one front row start), I will look to play him for up to 2 units. Even though it seems built for much flatter race tracks, this car is too good to ignore IMO.

 

[djv]

That change is meant to give the front end a little more down draft. But they have to watch balance of car because it can cause rear end to come up a little. Some drivers already have said they don't expect much. Maybe couple of 100's and a little less push in the front end. Some of the drivers felt Nascar should leave the chev's and ponchos as they are. Then take 1 inch away from the fords and dodges. Oh well practice may tell us something. Here again this track you have to like fast. So certain divers should show up. J Gordon, JR, Waltrip, Marlin, Martin, Jarrett. Johnson. Stewart, Newman. Elliot, but for old number 9 his car has to be handling good. I know that sounds dum. But if it'snot he will back off and settle for top 10 or 12 if he can get it. He will not push it. The Bush kid and Kenseth. Unless a wreck takes bunch of these folks out. I just don't see a sleeper pulling this one off. Also remember the race for the points is realy on now.

On another note did you guys hear about the new rule for the two fastest tracks. There going to make them run with 13 or 14 gallons of fuel. This way they expect many more pit stops that will keep the cars from getting all bunched up and haveing there one big wreck. Im sorry folks if they all got to stop. What am I missing.
I understand that some will have faster stops. But when they get back on the track they seem to all just line back up. Believe this will be for Dayton next year and Talladega and maybe Atlanta this year.

 

[Huckleberry]

A ton of good info DJV........thank you.

Adding a play:

QUALIFYING MATCHUP
28 R. Rudd ov 24 J. Gordon -115 4 units

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

yeah nascar can be pretty clever with some of their changes they come up with. sometimes i think they have their marketing geniuses that came up with some of the most idiotic commercials i've ever seen do their racing rule changes also.

let's see you want to limit the fuel that the cars can get on one pit stop to 13 gallons. do you :

a) have the teams install new fuel cells for certain races only at a cost of who knows how much or

b) give each team a 13 gallon fuel can and tell them they can only put in one can per pit stop.

seems like a toughie.

 

[djv]

You got be LOL on that one Sandwedge. I mean what the heck are they thinking. We shall see maybe it's just BS. But it sure sounds like there going through with it.
I just saw where Johnson is behind in rookie points to the 12 car. How can that be?

 

[Huckleberry]

DJV.....that rookie point system is about a messed up as can be.....Johnson is 205 WC points ahead, but behind Newman like you said. Come on!

Nascar sure can give us some comic relief with their rules/decisions sometimes!

 

[Myron]

Don't forget there's a discretionary 50 points at the end for the ROY which makes it even more confusing. I wonder if for the first time ever they'll award co ROY champions?

 

[djv]

I do believe it will add some good raceing between just those two. Unless they start to worry to much about each other and screw up. By the way didn't Johnson have some points taken away. What was it 25 or 50. His crew chief lost some points to or what was it just money. They had a bolt 1/2 inch back to far on some darn part. Heck maybe Johnson could be in 2nd place a head of martin? I see he is 3 points behind Newman. Confusing is a good word.

 

[toast]

Hey guys new to Jacks... but love bettin nascar
B.Elliott finished 10th or 11th at first race at Mich. this year. He qualified 4th and lead 31laps. He woulda had a higher finish but decided not to take tires on last caution and was eaten alive. I look for him to run strong this weekend. #9 is my early lean


As far as the edge given to the Chevys for this race...

If you remember last year they gave the Dodges 2.5 inches forward the week before the brickyard. But like djv said it is critical to keep the balance on the car so it will stick. Mike Helton Crew Chief for the #9 said after winning at Homestead " it has taken some time to get the balance back on the car since the rule change" and that was almost 2 months after the change. I read in the Atlanta paper that Richard Childress said" I would of rather had them take somthing from the Fords and Dodges rather than give it to us".


Remember though I dont think any of the teams are ever completely satisfied in their eyes!!!

Ill have some Qualifying picks tonite

Thanks for all the info you guys post!!!

 

[Huckleberry]

Welcome aboard Toast!

If you like betting nascar like you said, you have found the right place!

 

[toast]

Thanks Huck...... I meant Mike Ford as criew chief for th#9 in that last reply... Duh

I've been looking at some previous threads on here and im very impressed!!! tons of awesome info!!

1 qualifying matchup play so far

Mark Martin -115 over R. Craven even 2units

 

[Huckleberry]

Interesting matchup there Toast.......I've actually been looking to play on Craven in qualifying this week, as I have been very impressed w/ their previous runs here over the last 4 races.

Debating a play on 32 ov 20 in qualifying, but I was looking to lay PK and not -125. We'll see.

Did make an additional win play thinking that he will be pretty good in qualifying. If not, I can get a nicer price later as well.

ODDS TO WIN
48 J. Johnson +1400 1.5 units
Earlier plays:
12 R. Newman +1300 2 units
9 B. Elliott +1300 0.78 units
77 D. Blaney +7500 0.2 units

GLTA

 

[Myron]

I added another 2 units on Brett Bodine +120 over Hut Stricklin in qualifying. Bodine beat Stricklin in qualifying at Michigan earlier this year and has outqualified him in more races all year. Both are horrible qualifiers but you give me 6/5 odds on a matchup where a driver should be favored and I'll take it.

 

[djv]

Welcome Toast I think you will have some fun here. Some these guys know there stuff way better then I do. It's helped me make some nice plays this year.
Visit the Formula 1 or GP post also. !837 is very good on that sport. There are others to that now there stuff. I have to just follow there because I don't keep upto date on what is happing. but the guys there for sure 1837 will make you some cash.
You will like the motor sport area because no bull chit goes on here and no one lets it get started.

 

[toast]

just added another 0.5 units with Matrin +110 over craven for qualifiying matchup...

also adding K. petty even over Hutt S. for Qual. for 2 units

be back in the mornin!!!

 

[grooven]

areo push my butt these chevrolet and pontiac drivers are a bunch of

 

[toast]

Qualifying might start some time today????????:shrug: :shrug: