NASCAR - The Sirius Satellite Radio at The Glen @ WATKINS GLEN

[Huckleberry]

Last of the 2 road courses this week guys! And we all know who is the prohibitive favorite to win this one.

While I believe it's very tough to bet a driver that is 3-1 or less to win a race, you have to believe that if Gordon is going to win any race this year, this has to be the one.

He looked to be dominant in the last road race at Sears Point until the dreaded rear-end gear busted (happened to more than one driver that weekend).

This is going to be a tough race to approach this weekend, as there really are only a few contenders for this one IMO. On top of that, their odds are all very low, so it might just have to be a Gordon bet only and hope that he ends this 29 race losing streak. I've seen no higher than 7-2 on him so far, with about 5 shops that have their numbers up.

Through INDIANAPOLIS:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/To win the Pole: 0-7 -8 units
Busch Series/Week: 0-2 -3 units
Winston Cup/Week: 1-6 +32 units
Overall Year: 10-124 +91 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup Qualifying: 8-2-1 +23.43 units
Busch Series/Week: 1-1 -0.9 units
Winston Cup/Week: 2-4 -9.25 units
Year: 76-58-1 +63.09 units

Total for the week: +34.28 units
Yearly Combined: +154.09 units

 

[Huckleberry]

Well guys, let's dig right in. I really think this is Jeff Gordon's race to win this week, but I'll throw up some drivers that could possibly get there as well. I don't believe this is a race to have 12-15 units out with 6-8 drivers, but rather 10 or so units w/ the bulk of the profit being made if the 24 wins. With that in mind, I have done something I don't normally do,

ODDS TO WIN
24 J. Gordon +350 5 units

I really do not anticipate having any more than 3 or 4 drivers for this race, if even that. I sure don't need to deal with what almost happened at Sears Point earlier this year (Jerry Nadeau in the 44 w/ a 4 second lead with 3 laps to go).

But let's take a look at some guys who have had success both at Watkins Glen, and at Sears Point. Oh, and FWIW, even though Watkins Glen is a road course, the drivers have always said that the 2 tracks are completely different in terms of what it takes to successfully get around this track.

NOTE: I'll be referring to Sears Point (now Infineon Raceway) as SP and Watkins Glen as WG in the write-ups.

#1 S. PARK
I don't know if anyone else was surprised by Park's victory at this track in 2000, but I know I sure was. Park had never shown much success on road courses up to that point, but I have to include him this week due to the fact that he is in the elite class of being a past winner. In addition, his odds are currently 40-1 or so which sure seems like some decent value. Of course, Park is far removed from the driver he was (success wise) prior to his horrific accident last year, but I'm choosing to believe that is mostly due to some horrible racing luck. He was quite competetive last week which was nice to see after another nightmare wreck at Pocono the week before.
In addition, Park has been MUCH more successful at Watkins Glen than he has at Sears Point over the years. He has finished 10th, 1st, 12th and 18th his last 4 trips here, compared to finishes of 23rd, 40th, 17th and 42nd the last 4 at Sonoma. If I choose to add 3 or 4 other drivers along w/ the 24, I'll be thinking about the #1 car this week at that price.

#2 R. WALLACE
He almost stole all our Bill Elliott money last week with a VERY impressive run from 35th to 2nd at Indy. That was his 3rd 2nd place finish at the Brickyard 400 and he was visibly sick about it afterwards. However, it's a new week, and Rusty has the cabability of running very well this week. He's been very inconsistent at the road courses lately though, managing only a 5th place finish at SP in 2001 around finsihes of 27th (2002 SP), 43rd (2001 WG), 34th (2000 WG) and 26th (2000 SP) in the 4 others. But going back to 1999, Rusty was very impressive with finishes of 3rd that year, 4th in '98, and 3rd in 97 at WG. Therefore at odds of 12-1 or thereabouts, he's a no play for me at this point, but depending on how he looks in practices, I'll keep an eye on him for matchups.

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

not exactly a vote of confidence for stricklin

not exactly a vote of confidence for stricklin

CORNELIUS, N.C. ? Bill Davis Racing announced Monday that Tom Hubert will drive the No. 23 Dodge this weekend at Watkins Glen.

Hubert replaces regular driver Hut Stricklin. Hubert, a rear-tire changer for Ward Burton's No. 22 Dodge, will drive the car for this race only.

"uh hut, if you don't mind we're going to let the tire guy drive this week"

in all fairness to hut, the article goes on to say that hubert has experience racing on road courses. but it just struck me as funny when i read the first two paragraphs.

 

[Huckleberry]

Yeah...it sure doesn't look like a vote of confidence for 'ole Hut does it? The rear tire changer......LOL!

#6 M. MARTIN
If it wasn't for a certain #24 car, Martin could easily be the best road racer out there. He has shown amazing consistency over his career at both road racing events, and heads off to Watkins Glen trying to leapfrog the 2 guys he's chasing in the standings. It's more than possible for Mark Martin to be in the points lead come late Sunday afternoon. Out of the last 11 races at the road courses (6 at SP, and 5 at WG), Martin's worst finish has been a 15th. His average finish position at SP is 4.83 and at WG it is a little worse at 6.6. He should be a contender this week and will be one of the drivers I'll look to include. At 12-1 currently, I'll opt to wait, but will look to have the 6 in any and all matchups that do not take into account his amazing consistency as a road racer.

#8 D. EARNHARDT, JR.
Did Jr. make the race last week? Oh, that's right. I remember now. He went from leading to 32nd and was never heard from again. I have to say I was very surprised at this team's poor run last week, but I sure won't be if they do it for 2 weeks in a row. Jr. did run decently at SP earlier this year, but a late spin relegated him to a 30th place finish. To be honest, it seems as if the 8 has run much better at facilities they never used to run well at this year, so it would not surprise me to see Jr. muscle his way to a top 10 finish. WG is much more of a speed road course than SP is which suits Jr. just fine. I'm completely middle of the road as far as what I expect from him this weekend, but my first thought is to make him a play against until he proves otherwise.

#9 B. ELLIOTT
Ok. The winning streak stop here. Right? It just has to. However, he was awful competetive at SP this year which is a much more demanding race track than WG is as far as driver talent. However, "Awesome Bill" hasn't done anything here since 1997, when he came home 7th. I'm not about to go against someone with so much momentum right now, so I will most likely pass him over completely this week. But Bill is only 210 points out of the lead, and I'm sure they are going to do everything they can to secure a top 10 finish if at all possible.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#12 R. NEWMAN
I'm sure I wasn't the only one surprised to see Newman finish 9th at SP this year in his first Winston Cup road race. He qualified 17th, and showed great poise and patience the entire day, which bodes well for this week IMO. He came here to test a few weeks ago hoping to to gain that all valuable "seat time" and learn the differences between the two road courses. I will most likely treat him the same way I'll treat the 9 car this week, as I can see another top 10, or a mid pack 25th place finish.

#14 P.J. JONES
Son of the great Parnelli Jones, P.J. scored a ride this week due to his solid road racing experience. Oh, come on. Let's be honest. I'm including him here for the sole purpose to point out the he was responsible for taking the ride away from "Mr. Watkins Glen", Ron Fellows. Put his guy up with any other "hired gun" and he's an immediate bet against IMO.

#17 M. KENSETH
Here's another of the 2000 rookie class that hasn't quite mastered the road courses. With an average finish position of 25th in his 5 attempts at road racing, I will be looking to play against this team this week. Although he did muster up a 10th place finish here in 2000, I believe the success he's had this year will leave him matched-up with drivers who should have a much better chance at a decent finish than Kenseth. Then again, the first matchup I've seen (at sportsbook.com) has him against the 44 of Jerry Nadeau who is a -130 favorite. That may be a little much IMO (I mean it's Jerry Nadeau after all), but it's more than obvious that their nascar guy over there is far from impressed with Kenseth's road racing abilities.

#18 B. LABONTE
I just can't keep my word concerning this driver/team. They still haven't managed a top 10 finsih since their win at Martinsville (an amazing 13 races ago), but they did come from the rear again to finish a very respectable 11th for the 2nd consecutive week. With all the problems they have had this year, it seems as if they are running much better on tracks they aren't known for running well at, so I'm inclined to believe that they could possibly end that top 10 drought this week. Labonte fought his way to a 13th place finish at SP this year, and has a surprisingly decent avg. finish position over the last few years at the road courses. Including the finish this year, the 18 has a 7.6 avg. finish in his last five, so he could be a surprise this week IMO. A win is highly unlikely, but a top 10 is not. I'll look for some value with the 18 in matchups.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#20 T. STEWART
Here is basically the #2 choice this weekend behind the 24 car. Stewart is anywhere between 7-1 and 8-1 around, which makes playing him somewhat difficult if one chooses to play the 24 as well. While Stewart has been impressive at these venues since hitting the Winston Cup scene in 1999, I will have to hope for a poor qualifying run in order to play him. This however is going to be difficult, as the 20 has an average starting position of 4.42 over the 7 races of his road racing career. Therefore, I would suggest a play on the 20 before qualifying for anyone interested in playing him this weekend. I'm considering a race play on him over Dale Jarrett at -130 before qualifying.

#21 E. SADLER
No joke here, as Sadler could be a nice darkhorse pick to finish in the top 10 again at a road course. His finishes in the past have been quite horrible, but I liked what this team had to say about the new cars they built specifically for the road races. Sadler has a lot of confidence coming off this 6th place run at SP, and I'll have an eye on him as far as matchups go.

#24 J. GORDON
Mr. "3-1" heads off to New York this weekend in an attempt to end this "little" 29 race losing streak of his. While I didn't play the 24 at SP earlier this year, I've already played him this week, as he will win this race if they do not run into any problems. The main issue with playing a driver to win a Nascar race +350 or thereabouts, is that it doesn't leave much room to include any other potential winners without increasing the weekly outlay and thus lowering the profit margin. This is what I, and any other player choosing to include the 24, is going to have to face, and as I mentioned earlier, 24 may very well be the only play I make on this race.

#28 R. RUDD
Good old Ricky finally got himself a break this year when Nadeau broke down and gave him the win at Sears Point. That not only saved a few years off my life, but it re-established the fact that Rudd is a serious threat to win any road race he enters. He had always been a dark horse of sorts when he was running his 10 car, but ever since joining the 28 team in 2000, Rudd has managed a 1st, 4th, 4th, 11th, and 5th place finish at all the road races. However, I run into the same problem considering he is only 8-1 to win this race, so I will be concentrating on matchups this week with this team.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#29 K. HARVICK
Is anyone else really impressed with how this team is running? 5th, 6th, 9th, 1st, 11th the last 5 races, and I look for it to continute this week. Combining the recent solid runs with the fact that Harvick has been no slouch over his 3 road races in Cup (14th, 7th, 14th), he's one of my longshots this week if I choose to play more than just the 24. If not, he will surely be involved in matchups.

#31 R. GORDON
Ever since Robbie had a brain cramp and decided to race Harvick (who was a lap down at the time) while leading the SP race last year, everyone booking nascar has been enamored with this guy at the road courses. Funny thing is, he really hasn't performed up to those lofty expectations. However, he has run very well over his career in these events in less than adequate machines, and should not be counted out by any means. However, 8-1 is ridiculous IMO, so I will not be playing this team to win this weekend. Now if a 15-1 pops up, I may have to rethink this. In addition, if he gets way to much respect in matchups, I will not be afraid to take the generous plus money available on the other side.

#40 S. MARLIN
Well all Sterling Marling fans, this could easily be the week that his run at the top of the point standings comes to an end. As much as I do not want that to happen, if past history is any indication of upcoming performance, the 40 will have all kinds of problems holding on. You can only get as lucky has he did once this year, when all his nearest competitors fell victim to mechanical failures after he dropped out and finished dead last at Sears Point. I'll be on the sidelines hoping for a good finish this weekend or may look to play against him in the right matchups.

#41 J. SPENCER
Watch out for Kurt Busch "Mr. Excitement", errr "Mr. Has Been", errrr "Mr. Never Was". Seriously though, since Busch is running for points somewhat and Nascar has a close eye on him after that Daytona blow up, nothing will happen.....but I for one would like for Spencer to get his sooner or later for his nonsense.

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

speaking of robby gordon being "over-hyped" since his the 2001 SP debacle (i had the f$*(#&$*&(#*&(*$& @ 75-1 to win...i still choke back tears when that is brought up ) i notice that robby is -160 over dale jarrett in qualifying. while RG iscapable of qualifying pretty decently in his road races(4th WG 2001) and dale's last road race qualifying effort was less than inspirational (took a provisional at SP 2002 after the car was so bad they elected to not even make a qualifying attempt), DJ qualified 1st and 2nd at WG in 2001 and 2000 so jarrett appears to be the right side of that one given the odds and his resurgence of late.

 

[sandwedge]

further robby gordon vs jarrett comments

further robby gordon vs jarrett comments

the -160 was last nite, it is now down to -140 (wsex)

from motorsports.com :

Team UPS Hopes To Repeat Qualifying Performance

Jarrett and the #88 UPS Racing Team hopes to build on their 2002 road course performance by improving on the 15th-place finish they put together in June at Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, Calif. The #88 UPS Racing Team started from the pole at Watkins Glen in 2001. Avoiding accidents similar to the one that took Jarrett out of contention in 2001 will be key to success during this year's road racing event.

"This is the same car we raced in Watkins Glen one year ago," Jarrett explained. "The car was so good there last year we decided to use it exclusively at Watkins Glen and built another car for Sears Point. We had a really good car last year. It was pure driver error that took us out of contention last year. I got into the corner a little hard and lost the car. Hopefully, with the same car we can get another great starting spot and we'll see what we can do this year."

"We race on road course only twice a year so it is difficult to prepare because we're doing a totally different kind of racing the other 34 races during the season," Jarrett added. "But, I enjoy the challenge those two races present us because it is just so different than what we normally do. I think over the years I have improved my skills on the road courses enough to where I know I can hold my own at places like Watkins Glen."

* Jarrett scored his best career finish at the 2.45-mile road course in 1999 when he finished fourth. He scored the straight top-10 finishes between 1998 and 2000 when he finished fifth, fourth and seventh, respectively.

* While Jarrett may not have a win at Watkins Glen, he has one pole and three outside poles to his credit. Jarrett broke the track qualifying record last year with his pole speed lap of 71.884 seconds and 122.697 mph.

* Jarrett and the #88 Robert Yates Racing Team may not have a win yet at Watkins Glen, but they have put together some strong qualifying efforts. In addition to the 2001 Bud Pole, the team has started from the outside pole three times and has not qualified outside the top 10 since becoming a team in 1996. Jarrett's average starting spot through the last six Watkins Glen events is fourth.

 

[Huckleberry]

That's good info Sandwedge.........sorry to bring back that horrid memory of a 75-1 shot losing a race by his stupidity. I that stuff even more than a breakdown that bother me to no end....not much you can do about a breakdown, but what Gordon did that day was just moronic IMO.

#41 or #42 S. PRUETT
The only "hired gun" that I will be keeping an eye on this week is Scott Pruett, as he has proven himself in the past and is looking to improve on his 11th place finish in this team's 01 Dodge last year. Having a Ganassi/Sabates machine is only a good thing, so I will be looking to play him in the right spots, as he could easily put together a top 10 run this weekend. A more solid play however might be Pruett in qualifying, as he as posted starting positions of 8th, 11th, and 9th in three different rides. He didn't race in the WG of 2000, due to the field being set by owner points.

#43 J. ANDRETTI
This is the last race of the year where I will actually be including not one, but two Petty cars. Looking over Andretti's finishes, there really isn't much to be that impressed about, but combining his great run at SP along with Nadeau's great run, leads me to believe they may have found something in order to be more competetive at these events. However, with WG being a less demanding track on drivers, I will tread litely.

#44 J. NADEAU
Talk about coming out of nowhere, Nadeau had the first road course race won this year before the "Nadeau Luck" bit him hard. I have very serious doubts that he can repeat that performance this week, but he does deserve a look based on his road racing experience. He managed a couple of top 10's with a 6th place run last year in the 25 Hendrick car, and a 5th place finish in the 9 car back in 1999.

#48 J. JOHNSON
This team is right on the heels of the 40 for the point lead heading into this weekend, and also managed the fastest lap around The Glen during testing a few weeks ago. That speed was very close to Jarrett's pole speed last year, and this type of road course will most likely suit Johnson much better than Sears Point. Having Jeff Gordon's rides and him there to bounce ideas off of can't hurt either. I will not be surprised with a solid run out of this team this week, and if 24 falls out, a win really isn't completely out of the question.

GLTA

 

[djv]

I just have to believe 4 guys 2/6/20/24 will win. R Gordon if his head is on right can be included. Hate to sell old 88 short but just don't see it this time. The 28 should play a role but his act is a little off this year. I would love to pick a 17 or 8 out of the blue sky and get lucky but can't see that happening either. Just some early thoughts. I know one thing the 40 better be in top 15 or his lead may be next to nothing. Don't believe he will keep catching the breaks he has.

 

[sandwedge]

didn't realize WG 2000 lineup was set by points so the outside pole of dale jarret in 2000 i mentioned should be ignored. he still seems pretty decent otherwise though

 

[homedog]

Great writeups

Great writeups

Great writeups Huck. Lots of useful information. I particularly agree with your read on J. Johnson.

I can never play on Spencer or R. Gordon. In my opinion, both of them are a wreck waiting to happen.

 

[Huckleberry]

Thanks Homdog.......BTW, the only reason I included Spencer was to discuss that nonsense last week. If this fool wins on Sunday, I will never bet a road race again.

I can see some value with R. Gordon, as he really has demonstated a knack for getting around these road tracks, but no way I can do it at 8-1.........like you said, it's not just about having good road course experience........it's about being smart, and Robby has not shown that he is particularly that in a Winston Cup car.

 

[homedog]

Busch

Busch

What are your thoughts on Busch this weekend? I have gained a tremendous amount of respect for his racing abilities this year.

 

[Huckleberry]

I'll have the rest of the driver write-ups later tonight or tomorrow, however, I agree with you concerning Kurt Busch.

The only problem is that I can never get a good handle on when he'll run in the top 5 or finish in the 30's. I'm tempted to believe that he'll have a pretty decent run this weekend, as he was quite impressive at Sonoma earlier this year.

But I just don't have a good read on him. You know when there are drivers or teams you can't win on no matter if you bet on them or against them? That is kind of the way I feel with Kurt Busch.

 

[Myron]

Busch did run 4th at Sear's Point. I'm going to see where he qualifies and judge it based on that.

 

[djv]

You no guys another reason now that I think about it to stay away for R Gordon. His feat are hurt. With all the shifiting he will have to do here. I know many drivers will just go by the RPM gage and the feal and try not to use the clutch. But hey not all day is that going to work. He could ware down. It's a stay away. Have not checked the odds but a sleeper could be 18. Is anything going to go right for him. Maybe here it starts.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Played QUAL (wsex) JGord(+100) vs Stewart.

Huck, curious if u like this one.

 

[Huckleberry]

Hey Chucky.....it looks as if that is the right price there. Gordon has qualified 13th, 8th (points), 4th his last 3 trips here. Stewart has an 11th, 6th (points), and 3rd. Therefore he has beaten him the last 2 times..........no doubt Gordon can beat him tomorrow, but it's too close to call IMO.