NBA 2020

[RBD]

Record 0-0

For record-keeping/bankroll purposes all bets $110 to win $100.

Thinking a little rust may show,
being out of synch usually has more effect on the O.
That, combined with some unhealthy Clips, I'm on the Un 220. (5D)

Good luck to the forum as we start the NBA season again.

 

[Double Two]

Nice Call on UNDER in the LAC/LAL game last night!!! :0074 Had UNDER myself. Good Luck This Season!!! :0008

 

[RBD]

"A reply! A REPLY! I'm SOMEBODY now! Hundreds of people look at this post every day, and now I got a reply! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity that makes you somebody. Things are going to start happening for me now!"

Sorry, a momentary lapse of sanity there (somebody will recognize the movie quote.)
Was starting to think I was invisible.

Thank you for coming by, Double Two, much appreciated. Good luck to you too this season.

Recap: Hit with LA Under.
Record 1-0, +$100.00

I heard a lot of talk about high scoring games (I heard one podcast say the LA game total was grossly off, 240 was more likely than 220.) I was thinking opposite. Rust + no energy from the crowds would not lead to high scoring games. Took a hard look at both games, opted for LA as the stronger of the two. Either would have worked, NO game stayed under by 19, LA by 16, neither was even close.

I'm going to stay with that premise - low scoring games - for the first week or so.
I dug up a similar situation to this restart, and saw that team totals have a high % of Unders, especially Dogs. I'm going to try a few of those today and tomorrow. May blanket cover them all.
Starting with Broklyn Un 102.

Good luck to the MJ'ers . . .

 

[53defense]

"A reply! A REPLY! I'm SOMEBODY now! Hundreds of people look at this post every day, and now I got a reply! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity that makes you somebody. Things are going to start happening for me now!"

The Jerk?


God I'm getting old.......


Nice call on the Unda:0008

 

[RBD]

Thanks for stopping by, 53d, and yes, it's from The Jerk (and yes, I felt old writing it.)
And while we're on that subject:
"You would think that in a fancy restaurant at these prices you could keep the snails off the food!"

It's sports betting, right? We all know not to count your chickens before they're hatched, anything can happen.
Well, with a Q1 FG clip of 70%, AND 4-8 from the three pt range, I'm counting my chickens as killed, plucked, and roasted in my early bet.

Like I said, I may blanket these spots (cover them all) so adding Grizz Un 111 and Wiz Un 108'.

 

[RBD]

Not going well thus far, but I believe in my numbers, and the data work I do, so as I said, I'm going to buy all of these Un spots today.
And . . . tomorrow too.

Adding:
Bos Un 108
SA Un 110
Hou Un 115

 

[RBD]

Well that certainly sucked.
I couldn't possibly have been more wrong with my picks.

At times like this you're supposed to look for a bright side, so . . . at least I can only go 0-5 tomorrow.

I'll be back Saturday with the recap and plays.

 

[RBD]

Recap: As ugly as it gets at 0-6.
Record 1-6, -$620.

My plan today was to stick with what my data says is the way to go in these early games, take the Dogs team total to go Under.

Yes, all games yesterday went Over, but both games the night before stayed under, which means on the season restart the totals are 2-6, just a four-game differential, easily recoverable as over time most things in sports wagering do level out.

BUT . . .

Last night's games didn't just go over they went WAY Over, by an avg. of 33 pts.
That's a hard number to ignore if you're looking at Unders today.

What concerns me most is that Houston game. It looked more like an All-Star game. If you watched, you saw an 84 point first quarter. EIGHTY-EIGHT!

Every Houston possession was the same thing: Harden on an uncontested layup while the defense did their bullfighter impersonation, stepping aside and saying, "Ole!", or the defense coming out to double team Harden while he did a bounce pass to a wide-open guy under the basket for a dunk.

And when he wasn't hitting FG's, Harden was making easy free throws for phantom fouls gifted by the refs. (The only other game I watched yesterday was the first game, and there were so many fouls called even the game announcers repeatedly called BS on the refs.)

It's almost as if that pedophile-looking fucker silva said, "Look boys, we need to sweeten the ratings, we got a lot of revenue to make up for, let's give them a show."

I like my data but just don't trust the NBA, so I'm not going to stick with the plan going into this week to play the RD team totals Under.
I'll be back in with whatever I do buy.

Good luck with your plays today.

 

[lowell]

It takes less energy to play offense than defense . These spoiled social justice warriors are not going to play defense until the playoffs.

 

[RBD]

Lowell, that was certainly the case on Saturday.
The Houston game was disgusting.

And cowing to the Social Justice Warrior Princess segment is killing the escapism aspect of watching sports for many people.
But they're also easily dismissed as worthless.
Example:
While watching the games yesterday with a bunch of people, the topic of kneeling came up, and I asked one of the supporters, "Should a player who kneels during the anthem be punished?"

He said, "Of course not, it's freedom of speech!"

Then I asked, "What do you think about Isaac, from the Magic, standing during the anthem?"

His predictable reply: "It was a disgrace. He should be kicked off the team!"

And then I changed the subject.
Attempting to point out the lack of self-awareness and hypocrisy would be a waste of time. It's like trying to teach algebra to a child, which is why I never engage with their type, it's a waste of time, there are none so blind as the ideologically blind.

Recap: After a lousy Friday I ended up taking the day off.
Mistake.
The team total Under on all dogs went 3-1 (there was no play in the pick'em game), and I missed out on banking a few units. Instead I'm still 1-6, -$620.

I should have stuck to my original plan and that is exactly what I'm doing today.

My handicapping says playing team totals Under in the first two games of all teams in this restart should be profitable, with a higher win percentage on the dogs. So today I'm playing all five dogs Under on their team total, numbers below:

Wash 115
Port 112
SA 117
Sac 113
Corrections (I had Favs listed in error):
Hou 120
Phx 114'


Good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Short on time, back with a recap when I get a minute. For now, took Orl Ov 225.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Sunday I went 2-3-1. Hit the first game, Un on the Wiz, off to a good start. Got Port Un 112 and they have just 48 at the half, looking good, but a 76 pt 2nd half F's me. Not a bad beat, but...
Hit with Spurs by 9, missed with Kings and Suns by 3 each.

I'm at 2-3 for the day with the Rockets Un 120 still open.
Houston is up by 3 pts with 119 on the board, Milwaukee has possession with just 3 seconds left, a winner if it doesn't go to OT, right?
Nope.
The Bucks miss their 3 pt'er and, with 1 second left on the clock Antetokounmpo decides to foul Harden.
And amateur shite like that is one of the reasons I hate pro hoops.
Harden hits a FT and a W becomes a push.

Took Monday off to refresh after a lousy weekend.

Hit with the Magic Over yesterday to cut into the deficit a bit.
Record: 4-9, - $620 (corrected juice for Sat. Three tm totals at -110, three at -120.)

Looking at a first quarter play today, will post if I buy it.

 

[RBD]

Recap: No plays on Wednesday.

Double screwed yesterday.
The Q1 play I mentioned I was looking at was Mem Un 56'.
Knew Mem was an early start, got busy handicapping/crunching #'s, lost track of time.
Got my bet in with 2 minutes to spare. Not enough time to post it, AND the # dropped to 56.
So, no post, no win; a push.

No biggie though, good day overall, I saw a guy on something like a 1-12 two day slide, so what does he do for his last bet of the night (on Brooklyn)? He doubles down of course.
I had no interest or action on the game, but knowing Brooklyn was off that big win over the Bucks, AND had played the night before so they might be a bit tired on defense, AND knowing doubling down when you're on a losing streak is an amateur move, I put a little $ on Boston.

Speaking of teams playing B2B, we had the first three of the restart last night: Brook, Bos and Orl.
Brook and Orlando both got whupped, Boston played Brook and got a W.
There are two teams in this spot today: Den and the Lakers.

LAL off a pit-i-ful game, 35% from the field, 13% on 3 ptrs.
Couldn't make FT's either at 19-29.
Only one other time this year they scored in the 80's in a loss, vs. Mem back in Feb.
That was, like last night, the first game of B2B's, and they put up 122 vs NO the next night.

I'm looking for a similar come back effort after a lousy night, and what better team to have it against than Hou, who's at the bottom of the league in D for PPG at 115, which happens to be the number I need tonight. I bought LAL tm total Ov 114.

 

[RBD]

I've been doing some stat work using Limper's #'s, pt differential between his totals and posted lines.
Based on what I think I see in a small data sample, I'm adding Mia/Milw Ov 223.
One other game fits the scenario, LAL/Hou; may add it later, may not as I already have LAL tm total Ov.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Split last night.
Got an easy W with the Bucks Over.
Tagged with an L on LAL tm total Over, but not for lack of opportunity. You can't hit an Over when a team of supposed Pro ballers shoots a high school-like 2-19 from three pt range.
Everything I read and heard yesterday proclaimed an easy W for Hou with Harden vs LA w/out LeBron, so I was comfortable going against the wave. With first place locked up, and nothing to play for, I thought LA would play fast and loose, and I did get the pace I wanted, they just couldn't hit a basket.
Record: 5-10, -$630

Today:
We've had five teams play B2B in the bubble. They're 1-4, with L's by 10, 16, 10, and 34 pts.
I pointed out yesterday that they were 1-2, the only win was Bos playing Brook, but I didn't play AGAINST LAL or Denver and both lost. Two on tap today, SAC and NO.
Playing AGAINST Sac means buying Wash, who is winless in the bubble and not even close, losing by an avg of double digits, closest game was a loss by 8. Ugh.
The other spot is AGAINST NO, which means buying Brooklyn, fresh off a loss by 34 pts. Ugh again.

To further complicate things, in the 1-4 record for B2B spots, all 4 losing teams have been Dogs, the only Fav was Boston who is also the only winner, and today neither of the two teams in B2B spot are Dogs.

How about tm totals in B2B, maybe we can find value there?
Four of the five have stayed Under (by 1', 15, 15 and 1'), the only Over is Boston (by 33).
Two of the four were close, by 1', but Unders look okay at 4-1.

Will update with plays when the rest of the lines are in and I'm done handicapping the rest of the card.

Today, starting with:
Brook +5
Sac tm total Un 119
NO tm total Un 121'

 

[lowell]

Do you know if Zion is still limited to 25 minutes? He played 22 yesterday and sat out the last several minutes with Sac having a big lead.

 

[RBD]

Lowell,
Thanks for stopping by.

I haven't heard an update from the head coach or sports media, which doesn't matter anyway:
I don't believe what HC's say pre-game, as they rarely like to tip their hand,
and I don't believe what the sports media says because they're usually full of shit.

Normally I'd say that as long as the Pelicans are in contention for a playoff spot - even the longshot chance they find themselves in today after yesterday's loss - they'll play Zion more than 25 minutes if the game is close, BUT . . . in a game two of B2B's they may not want to push it.
Thankfully for them, they're facing Wash and probably won't need him.

It doesn't affect my handicapping as it's numbers based, not really affected by players being in or out, (which is factored into the book's #'s anyway.)

Good luck with your plays today . . .

 

[RBD]

Today, starting with:
Brook +5
Sac tm total Un 119
NO tm total Un 121'
Adding:
Ok -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-1 yesterday, banked $190.00.

Hit with both team total Unders, Sac & NO.
That stat (tm tot Un in game two of B2B's) is now 6-1.

Hit with Brooklyn +5. (B2B teams now 5-2 play AGAINST ATS.)

And a good move on not taking Washington in the same spot as Brooklyn. As noted in yesterday's post, they're 0-4 losing by 10 points or more on average per game going into last night and they were only getting 8.
They lost by 11.
Knowing when to not pull the trigger is just as important as knowing when to put your money on a play.

Only loss was the added game, Ok, but no regrets/hindsight.
A guy bet $500 on each of the early games, lost both, came back and bet a thousand on Memphis, so I faded the chaser, usually a good move.
Record: 8-11, - $440 now as I try to recoup from that disastrous 0-6 day last week.

Okay, let's look at today's card.

We have Utah in the B2B spot.
I prefer playing against Dogs of 5 or more in this spot so I won't play the side.
At 6-1 you have to look at the team total Under again, but the number is only 110. Denver is not playing defense in the bubble, giving up an average of 122 points per game.

Here's the thing about streaks - it's common in sports betting to see a tout or handicapper say, "Take team X today, this is a 10-1 spot."
BUT . . . the time to get on that streak was at least five or six games ago. Eventually, everything levels out.

Despite the 6-1 stat, I'm likely not going to play the team total today, it's at least five points fewer then what I see as the number I needed.

I'm off to crunch some more numbers, if I make any buys that I would recommend, I'll post 'em here.

Good luck with your plays today.

Update: I have a few other situational plays that I track everyday, but none of them kick out any plays today.
So it looks like no recommendations/no investments, just some in-my-pocket TV action/fun plays.
If something changes or if I see something tempting at halftime I'll post it.

 

[RBD]

Recap: No plays yesterday, stayed off the Utah spot, game two of B2B, and two good things come of it.

First, it would have been a split, would have lost a little juice.
(Utah didn't cover the spread, making this a 6-2 spot playing AGAINST these teams. But the team total Under, 6-1 going into this game, was a loser.)

Second, it saves me from having to sing a sad song about a bad beat on the team total Under. The Jazz were sitting at 100 points, team total was 111. Denver was up by four points, with just 10 seconds left on the clock, AND possession.
Game over, easy winner on the team total Under, right?
Wrong.
Denver turns it over on the inbounds pass, Utah hits a 3-pointer, Denver can't hit their FT's, and . . . OT at 105 pts. A very bad beat for anyone who played that 6-1 Under spot.

Today:
Two teams in B2B, Port and LAL. Not sure what, if anything, I'll do there, but I do already have one buy: Mem/Tor Q1 Ov 55'

Will update if I add anything.