NBA 2020

[RBD]

Recap: Lost with Tor Q1 Ov yesterday, but a good week at 5-3.
Record: 8-12, - $550.

Update on tms in Gm 2 of B2B's in the bubble:
ATS they're a nice 7-3 play AGAINST.
Playing AGAINST Dogs in this spot is the best W % at 5-0.
Tm total Unders are also a profitable 6-3-1 (with a real bad beat on the Denver game.)

Two spots active today: OKC & Tor.

After today, we only have three more of these this year: Phx & Milw on Tue, Hou on Wed.
Milw is playing Washington, so we can toss that one out as a possible buy (see post from 8/7; stayed off playing Wash +8 in this spot and they lost by 11.)

Just passing along some info for now, will add plays after I make a buy(s).

Update:
The most profitable spot, as noted above, playing AGAINST Dogs in game two of B2B's, moves to 6-0 with the loss by Orlando +8 today.
And the team total stayed Under, 7-3-1 now.
Hope some of you saw this while looking for opinions and jumped on either or both.
One spot left today, Toronto.

Update on buys: Tor Un 111', Mil -5'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Screwed up yesterday, and kind of deserved it. Declined to post a play on the first of the B2B spots, and the side and total won. I was Johnny-come-lately and jumped on the second spot, not because I liked it better but because I felt I missed out by not posting the first game. And . . . I start the week in an 0-2 hole.
Needed Under 112 on the total, it landed 114, the side wasn't even close.
Record: 8-14, -770.

Another problem with yesterday is I had a good day on my plays, which means I'm being too selective in what to share, AND picking the wrong ones to post.
With just four days left in the restart I'm going to open up a bit. I have a few situational spots I've been tracking, besides the B2B spots I've been sharing numbers on.
I have a full game total spot on Overs, using Willie's data, that is 15-8.
I have an Ov/Un play on first quarters that is 2-11, which makes for a nice 11-2 fade (I only posted one, and, of course, it was one of the two losses, the Mem/Tor play on 8/9.)
And I have a Q1 play on sides that is 7-2.
Small data sample on them all, just a week's worth, and there's always the danger that the scales will balance out and the records will revert to .500 as most plays do over time. But, like my MLB plays (3-1 in the MLB forum, stopped handicapping MLB while I worked on NBA) NBA is just small $ size wagers for me, so what the hell, let's have someaction/fun (?) to close out the season.

Two in the B2B spot today: Phx and Milw.
The Deer F'd me yesterday, don't feel like giving them a chance to do it again today, and don't feel like depending on Wash to get me some bank.
The other spot is a possible.
Waiting for the rest of the quarter lines to come in, will update with plays later.
Good luck with your plays today.

First update:
Finished work on the first quarter plays, only two today, Brook +1' qualifies as does Phx/Phil Over 56.
My first buy is Brook +1'.
The # on the Suns looks high at 56, so I'm off it.

 

[Destructor D]

Would be nice to know if Harris & Horford are playing... see both as ?'s right now. Embiid & Richardson are out for sure so my guess is the Sixers rest everyone and get worked over, but Suns could be exhausted.

 

[RBD]

Destructor D, thanks for stopping in.
Yeah, one of problems with trying to 'cap end of season games like these are the added unknowns - who sits, who plays, who cares, who's motivated, who's quitting and just playing out the string.
And sometimes the lines reflect the lineup changes, sometimes the info comes late and the lines don't.
Even handicapping like mine - numbers-based, not player-based, is affected.
Just another reason these are small $ plays for fun for me, not investments like I make in college football.
Good luck with your plays today.

 

[RBD]

Got a W with Brooklyn Q1.
Good move staying off the 11-2 stat that said take Phil Ov 56; they scored 50.

Adding Q1 Ov 59' Port/Dal.

 

[RBD]

Recap:
Banked both plays yesterday to recoup the two from Monday. Record now 10-14, -$570.
Made a good move on staying off both plays involving B2B teams as both sides and team totals lost.
And a good move staying off the Suns Ov in Q1 in the 2-11 fade spot. As stated, I believed the # 56 was too high; they put up 50. Both buys I made were Q1 bets, and maybe I should have noted the diff between the two. Yesterday I mentioned a few different situational plays I track:

"I have a full game total spot on Overs, using Willie's data, that is 15-8.
I have an Ov/Un play on first quarters that is 2-11, which makes for a nice 11-2 fade (I only posted one, and, of course, it was one of the two losses, the Mem/Tor play on 8/9.)
And I have a Q1 play on sides that is 7-2."

The first buy, Brook +1', was from the 7-2 play (8-2 now, 1-1 on Favs, 7-1 on Dogs.)
The second, Port Q1 Ov 59' was not from the 2-11 play (now 3-11) and maybe I should have made that clear in case anyone thought it was. It was a buy made on a gut feel, based on:
two teams that I thought would get off to a fast start,
a line I thought was beatable,
and the fact that all four early game Q1's were slow paced/poor shooting quarters that came in Under.
Yes, you could call it a bet based on the "Due Factor" (thinking we were due for a fast-paced, quality shooting high scoring Q1) which is something I rarely play.
Why not?
Exhibit A, Krusty the Clown . . .

Krusty's Accountant: "Let me get this straight. You took all the money you made franchising your name and bet it AGAINST the Harlem Globetrotters?"
Krusty [miserable]:"I thought the Generals were due!"
Krusty, watching the game on TV: "He's spinning the ball on his finger! Just take it! Take it!"
The Globetrotters score and win, game over.
Krusty the Clown: "That game was fixed! They were using a freakin' ladder, for God's sake!"

Avoid the "Due Factor."
Thus endeth the lesson.

Back with today's plays after I finish 'capping.

Update:
Halfway done, did my work on first quarters. No sides, but every game has a play on the total.
The play calls for Un in Indy, Tor, and LAC and Ov in Miami. This is a 2-11* spot so I fade the plays.
Looking closer at each one, but already bought the first one, Indy Ov 58.
Will update throughout the day.

* I gave the record as 3-11 above. The breakdown was Overs 1-6, Unders 2-5. I was looking over my charts, trying to see if there is a commonality found in the three times it won, so I could use it to possibly eliminate any plays today, but can only find two wins so I corrected the record, 2-11, Overs 0-6, Unders 2-5.

I do a LOT of number crunching and charting, mistakes happen, but my numbers are always honest.
No fake lines that aren't available when posted (and in some cases never were),
no disappearing record BS (posted when winning, disappears when it's losing)
no weak-ass, insecure, "Hey, look at me! Love me, want me, NEED ME!" cries for attention,
and no fake record padded by wins that were not given out and losses not recorded.

Just picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

Plays:
Indy/Hou Ov 58

 

[Coach Woody]

Nice hit RBD.... Hopefully your numbers have a few other gems today.... Like what you do

 

[RBD]

Coach, thanks for stopping in, and for the comment. Glad you like what I do.
Some people like posts entitled, "Lakers vs Sac" and inside simply say "I like LAL -3."
That's okay, nothing wrong with it, but my posts are a little different.
Why?
Because if I have no edge on a game from my handicapping, and I know I'm going to watch it, I sometimes look to a forum for suggestions/recommendations. And when I do, I want more than just a pick. I want some reasoning, some stats, some history, a record, something I can either agree or disagree with.
But that's just me. To each his own.

Recap: Hit with Indy/Hou Q1 spot, then shut down for the day and banked it. It was just the mood I was in, playing tight, cutting into the hole I dug with that disastrous 0-6 day, trying to get in shape to make some bank during the playoffs. Record now 11-14 -$470.

Here are the plays that fit the first quarter play I've been tracking (2-2 yesterday.)
Sides: NO +1', Mil +1/2, Dal +3
Totals: NO Un 56, Wash Un 57, Port Ov 59
Note - the sides are 8-2 (Fav 1-1, Dogs 7-1) I play ON these.
Totals are 4-13 (Ov 1-6, Un 3-7) I play AGAINST these (fade them.)

I think I'll have a few plays today, but for now . . .
Buys:
NO/Orl Ov 56'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit my only buy with NO Q1 Over. Record now 12-14, -$370.

Analysis: I had 15 wagers circled from the various spots I track, including the Q1 plays I listed here. After doing my morning 'capping, I bought the NO spot early because I liked it best of all the options, and I thought the # would go higher, and it did. (General rule of thumb - buy Overs early, wait on Unders, ESPECIALLY on nationally televised games, because the public likes to see points and they usually bet the Over.)

Really thought I would buy a few more spots but then I watched the early game, and saw Washington beating Boston. There are only three teams in the entire league with a better record than the Celtics, and here they are getting beaten not only by a team that is winless in the bubble at 0-7 but are losing by an avg of 11 PPG.

Handicapping is difficult enough without the added factors that come into play in season ending games:
who's playing, who's on the bench; how many minutes will the top players get, who is going to give 100%, who's going to take it easy to avoid injuries as they get ready for the playoffs. So, after watching Wash/Bos, I decided the right move for me was to not lay out any more bets. And it was a good move - I would have a loss on the day if I had posted more spots.


The Newbie Section
Today's lesson: "MUST" win does not mean "WILL" win.
You heard it all day yesterday - "Portland is in a MUST WIN situation."
Many bettors hear that and think, "I'm on it!"
The Blazers, 10 pt Favs, entered Q4 down by 7, and won by just 1 pt thanks to a miss by Brooklyn in the final seconds. A SU win for the MUST WIN team, but an ATS loser for those that hopped that train, and all those who thought they'd use a teaser to buy down the line.
MUST win does not mean WILL win.

Back after I finish my data dive.

Udpdate: Done 'capping, I'll post all plays that are active in situations I track, as well as which ones I buy.
Why post all plays instead of just ones I buy/recommend?
Two reasons:
#2) In case anyone is seeking an opinion on a game they're looking at betting
but more importantly . . .
#1) If I said I hit 64% on over 80 plays in college football last year, including 69% on my strongest play year after year - Unders - readers would be skeptical. And rightfully so.
But, if those plays are all posted, it's documented. (I won't post it in my college football thread this year because it's bad karma, but the #'s above are accurate for 2019: 54-31, Ov 29-20, Un 25-11. Don't know if it will be as productive this season - don't know if there will even be a season. Hopefully, we'll see.)

Today's spots: Tor Q1; Den/Tor Un Q1; Indy Q1; OKC Q1; Indy tm total Ov;
Indy full game Ov, Indy full game ATS.
Updated record on Q1 spots is 8-4 sides (Fav 1-1, Dog 7-3) totals 6-14 (Ov 2-6, Un 4-8.)
The team total spot is 18-14 (Ov 18-11, Un 0-3.)

Indy seems to pop up a lot, I'm looking at a spot for them.
I'm looking at fading that Tor Q1 Un but it was 1-1 yesterday. With only 12 spots charted in total, 1-1 can't really be called a regression to the mean, but I don't know if I want to chance it.

Gotta run, will update again with any buys.

Buys:
Indy Ov 108

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with Indy Ov 108 as they put up 109. Sure as hell seems like we lose enough bets by a half point or 1 point, it's nice when one goes your way.
Record now 13-14, -$270.

Analysis of the play(s):
The day was both good and bad.

It was good because with a patient, workman-like effort, I've climbed back to within one game of .500, after digging a hole with that disastrous 0-6 day at the start of the season.

And it was good because I stayed off the tempting fade of the Tor Q1 Under, correctly anticipating that that trend was starting to balance out as it did indeed stay Under.

It was bad in that I could have recommended a few more winners as just about every circled game on my chart won. It was an especially nice day for those Q1 dogs as they went 3-0 and are now 10-3.

Today, with only one game on the schedule, I didn't expect to have any spots active, but I have two in the Q1 plays: Port -2 & Port Un 58.

Overall, sides in Q1 have performed well but all the winning is on the Dogs as I noted above. Favs, like we have today, are just 1-1. As for the total, fading the Under still has a winning record as they're 5-8, but they won the last few games so I'm staying away from that spot.

Still have some work to do on full games and team totals, no buys for me yet, if that changes I'll post an update.

Update: Finished handicapping. Again, strange with only one game on but there are two more team total plays that qualify: Mem Ov 112 and Portland Ov 118. Four games yesterday, 8 possible team totals to play, only one team total qualified. Only one game today and both qualify.
I don't like it. There was a day last week when both teams qualified in the same game, but I don't remember which game and what the result was, and my log book is in my office, I don't have it with me.

I think I'm just going to take today off and watch the game with a little bit of TV action, no recommended buys. No use forcing a play when there's just one game on the card and we've got the whole playoff season to make some bank.

Good luck with your plays today...

 

[RBD]

Restart Recap

Before I get to a recap, breakdown, and analysis of my play, let me ask a question of everyone reading this post . . .
How did YOU do during the restart?

What was your record on sides?
On Favs? Dogs?

What was your record on totals?
On Overs? Unders?

How did you do on in-game live wagering, or second half wagers?
First half bets, quarters, money lines?
Parlays? Teasers?

How many of you know?
HOW MANY OF YOU KEEP A LOGBOOK?

Handicappers will spend hours researching how a team performs in various situations, such as how did the Lakers do as a Fav, or what's the Rockets' record on Over/Unders?
But for some reason they don't track the most valuable, helpful stat they could have - their own record.
And that might be the biggest mistake that sports bettors make.

Keeping a logbook of your play allows you to see YOUR strengths and weaknesses, and make adjustments that can make you more profitable.

I just spent an hour analyzing my play during the NBA re-start.
What can I learn from my logbook that can help me improve on that record?
A lot.

First, it's easy to see my most glaring mistake.
In the first week of the season I had two days where I bet every game on the board; six games then five games, all based on a stat I had that said the first week would see team totals stay Under at a profitable percentage. I "blanket" bet every game of the card based on those numbers. And got screwed when the trend leveled out.

Two mistakes there: I bet too many games, and I didn't recognize the trend was leveling out, as all trends do over time.
And that's why my record in the restart is sitting at a subpar 13-14.
TEN of my 14 losses (a whopping 74%!) came on Team Totals Under.
When I saw that in my log, I got more selective with my plays, and finished on a 10-5 run to end the season.

Guess which play I'll look to avoid during the playoffs.
Yeah, Team Totals Under.

And how do I know to do this?
Because I keep a logbook.
And I use it.
I analyze my own play as well as the play of the teams I'm wagering on.

A notebook and a couple pens is a cheap investment that can provide a worthwhile ROI (Return On Investment.)
I use a black pen to chart stats and plays, green to mark wins with a W, red to mark losses with an L.

Seeing too much red brings your attention to areas that need focus and improvement. (And if your red pen runs out of ink before your green pen does, you might want to start looking for another hobby.)

Just a little helpful information you can use or discard, but trust me, keeping a log can make you a better bettor, if you're interested in those kind of things . . .

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD

I love the write up and will be honest I am one who has not kept track of my picks.... I will definitely start. To many times I finalize my picks as I'm running out the door or as I'm about to start something else in my day and don't jot em' down.

Other then at times I know I pick to many games to play during a day I don't know my own trends. I think it would be interesting to know how or where my own strengths and weaknesses are when making my picks.

Great advice and I look to see what you are doing each day so thank you for updates and posting your buys.... I have played a few along with you.

and let's roll the bank in the playoffs.

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the reply, Coach.
If no one had replied I probably would have stopped posting.
There are three reasons I post, and not one of them is for a pat on the back. But if no one cares, it's really just a waste of time isn't it? On the other hand, if even one person is interested then it's time well spent.
So thanks for contributing.

You mentioned betting too many games.
I'll share one of the wisest pieces of advice I ever heard, from a fellow bookmaker I worked with in Vegas.
He said, "The disadvantage we have as bookmakers is that we have to put up a line on every game.
The advantage players have is they can pick and choose their spots. But the more games they bet, the more the odds revert back to our favor."

I had a lot of bettors that would come in on a Sunday football morning, bet every game on the card, come back at halftime to bet some second halfs, and then come back and bet the afternoon games, too. If they were just looking for some action/fun, and using disposable income for entertainment purposes, nothing wrong with that. But if they thought it was a way to make easy money they were not doing themselves any favors, it's hard to win that way.

I know most people will discard the advice on keeping a logbook. Some have no need of it, but most will disregard it because they simply can't be bothered. And that's okay, to each his own. But it is a good tool to have on your belt, and as I said about replies, if even one person finds it helpful then it's worth it for me to take a couple minutes to share it here at Madjacks.

Recap: I didn't post any buys on Mem/Port Saturday, but it was a good day in my pocket as 3 of the 4 posted spots won, and the one that didn't was the Q1 fade I advised laying off of as the trend was leveling out.

As I do with college football, I keep a separate ledger for my post season play.
I'll start a new post that will be up shortly.

 

[ldabdou]

Thanks for the reply, Coach.
If no one had replied I probably would have stopped posting.
There are three reasons I post, and not one of them is for a pat on the back. But if no one cares, it's really just a waste of time isn't it? On the other hand, if even one person is interested then it's time well spent.
So thanks for contributing.

You mentioned betting too many games.
I'll share one of the wisest pieces of advice I ever heard, from a fellow bookmaker I worked with in Vegas.
He said, "The disadvantage we have as bookmakers is that we have to put up a line on every game.
The advantage players have is they can pick and choose their spots. But the more games they bet, the more the odds revert back to our favor."

I had a lot of bettors that would come in on a Sunday football morning, bet every game on the card, come back at halftime to bet some second halfs, and then come back and bet the afternoon games, too. If they were just looking for some action/fun, and using disposable income for entertainment purposes, nothing wrong with that. But if they thought it was a way to make easy money they were not doing themselves any favors, it's hard to win that way.

I know most people will discard the advice on keeping a logbook. Some have no need of it, but most will disregard it because they simply can't be bothered. And that's okay, to each his own. But it is a good tool to have on your belt, and as I said about replies, if even one person finds it helpful then it's worth it for me to take a couple minutes to share it here at Madjacks.

Recap: I didn't post any buys on Mem/Port Saturday, but it was a good day in my pocket as 3 of the 4 posted spots won, and the one that didn't was the Q1 fade I advised laying off of as the trend was leveling out.

As I do with college football, I keep a separate ledger for my post season play.
I'll start a new post that will be up shortly.

Great stuff. I have a friend that keeps a log book. I agree with it and it helps you generate an edge and your own system. When you keep a log it?s more then just keeping a log. It takes a lot of time which I don?t have to dedicate. I also agree with the record keeping but I use my bank roll for that which I chose not to share. I?ve been doing this for 25+ years and when you?ve been doing it for so long you pick and choose how you want to spend your time. I?ve put hours and hours in and sometimes put zero in. It?s all in what you want to get out of it.