NBA MON 110909 early thoughts - value hunting

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easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
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Mar 18, 2009
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Still looking over the numbers for today...

Aside:

1) Having watched the Kings for 2 straight games, they look more legit than they did last year - Westphal actually knows how to manage a team given his prior experience in the league. They may play better w/o Garcia and Martin (both of whom have a tendency to be high volume shooters) as the ball doesn't stick in their hands; may not scale the same heights, but potentially could spring some surprises here and there like the Blazers of 2 years ago.

2) Nate McMillen has now adopted an uptempo approach to satisfy some of his players on the Blazers: Fernandez, Webster, Bayless - this is as much in response to the addition of Andre Miller, who thrived in Philadelphia's chaotic fast break if possible strategy of years past. Games one ASSUMES are bona fide U's may not be a given owing to this change in direction from the plodding, use up 15 seconds of the shot clock half-court offense (which they will revert to given the opponent).
 
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40seven

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I could not agree more

I could not agree more

These two thoughts are very true.

The Kings were young and amazing. This years Thunder, they may not win a lot but they will cover more and more 'cus they will not quit
 
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pkkingster15

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Also still looking over today's card, but one I locked in yesterday.

TWolves +7

Be back in a bit. BOL to all
 

40seven

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Looking at 4

Looking at 4

Leans


Utah -5 1/2 this line is going to rise if you like the Jazz get it now, if you lean the Knicks wait til game time i think it will go higher 7-8.

The Spurs, 1st game with out Parker they will all play harder, this comes down to Duncan and he will win it.


Hornets plus point with the Clip still hulling but leaning.


Last Philly/Pnx Under. The Suns looked slower yesterday at times, the 76ers play defense and run less without Andre Miller it seems...i hope the number rises and i get more.

Utah is a lock and Philly/Phx is a string lean I cap it at 205.
 
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pfj

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early leans

Suns -2
Wolves +7

totals coming later!

BOL :toast:
Joe


I am leaning hornets +1 but the only thing thats holding back is how much they have been struggling this year. They have the talent but just not able to compete. I am probably still going to go with em just b/c they are 5-0 against the clips in L.A. just a hard pill to swallow right now. haha
 

joe_shmoe

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Another good opportunity to buy low and sell high.

Suns have been on a hot streak and Philly just lost last night to Detroit. From the #'s I'm seeing, >85% of the bets are coming in on Phx.

I'll take Phi and the points (or maybe even ML). The Suns will lose their share of road games and Phi will win their share of home games. I figure this isn't a bad spot to say that tonight will be a night that both will happen.

Phi +2
 
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joe_shmoe

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Another good opportunity to buy low and sell high.

Suns have been on a hot streak and Philly just lost last night to Detroit. From the #'s I'm seeing, >85% of the bets are coming in on Phx.

I'll take Phi and the points (or maybe even ML). The Suns will lose their share of road games and Phi will win their share of home games. I figure this isn't a bad spot to say that tonight will be a night that both will happen.

Phi +2

While I'm at it, I'll be locking up the U 213.5 in this game as well.

Other leans:
Clips +1 (no one ever likes to take the clips, no matter who they are playing)
TWolves +7 (seems like a lot of the lines set against this team present good value).
 

pkkingster15

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Joe,

I'm with you on that game. That's at the top of my list of leans right now, I just don't see Phoenix being able to stay at this level, especially on the road, and especially on a b2b. Great spot for Phili here imo.
 

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
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Mid-day leans (will pare down from these to 1 or 2 at most):

Philadelphia -> + 2
Phoenix/Philadelphia -> U
Utah/New York -> O

Minnesota may have a chance give the disarray b/w Nelson and his charges in the Bay Area.

Clippers look promising - New Orleans is just plain bad at this juncture; Chris Paul is keeping that team afloat on his own - Okafor does not run the floor as effectively as Chandler and stalls the offense; asking Paul to score and distribute at an optimal level all the time to eke out a victory is a tall order - Clippers better composed this year and Gordon is a reliable piece of that squad. Butler also facing his old team - may be motivated some.
 
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joe_shmoe

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Joe,

I'm with you on that game. That's at the top of my list of leans right now, I just don't see Phoenix being able to stay at this level, especially on the road, and especially on a b2b. Great spot for Phili here imo.

BOL to you buddy if you decide jump in. Obviously, I'm taking a chance just b/c PHO is playing such great basketball, but I think it is a decent spot to make a play.
 

joe_shmoe

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Final Card:

Phi +2
U 213.5 Phi
O 202.5 SAS

Still deciding on:
Clips +1
TWolves +7
MNF: U 40.5
 

t-mook

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im on the suns/76ers over 214. sorry to disagree with you joe shmoe. BOL on all your other picks
 

Joe_Vienna

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locked
Suns -2

-> Favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings
-> PHO are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings

this is just too tasty :0corn

still waiting
Wolves +6.5

total leans
Suns @ Sixers U213.5
Wolves @ Warriors U215

:director:
 

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
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Another aside -

One would've thought that the return of Gilbert Arenas would benefit the Wizards; it's had the opposite effect - whereas Saunders wants to install a more structured offense, Arenas is muttering about needing to jack up more shots whenever possible. Much like Kevin Martin, Iverson, etc., the ball dies when in Arenas's hands - Washington may be better off handing off the keys to the team to Foye, abetted by Nick Young and the rest of their young cadre: Aguirre, McGee, Blatche, etc. and have them mentored solely by Jamison and Butler, trading Arenas and getting someone of a team-first mentality in return.
 
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