NBA MON 110909 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter easterntimezone
- Start date
Leans
Leans
Hope everyone did well yesterday, I was out of town with the fam, so didn't get a chance to cap NBA. I took a look at the Suns and Lakers, but didn't play either, imagine that. Never fails. Oh well, on to today's leans.
YTD 19-10 5-0 last 5, so due for a hiccup.:mj09:
Leans
Philly +2
Totonto+2
TWolves +6.5 and over 215
N.O LAC UNDER 195
And in MNF, really like the broncos tonight.
Check back with you all in an hour or so.
Leans
Hope everyone did well yesterday, I was out of town with the fam, so didn't get a chance to cap NBA. I took a look at the Suns and Lakers, but didn't play either, imagine that. Never fails. Oh well, on to today's leans.
YTD 19-10 5-0 last 5, so due for a hiccup.:mj09:
Leans
Philly +2
Totonto+2
TWolves +6.5 and over 215
N.O LAC UNDER 195
And in MNF, really like the broncos tonight.
Check back with you all in an hour or so.
Joe,
I am with you on PHI+2 tonight :toast: :toast: This is PHO 5th and last game on the west-east coast swing and they want to get this game over with and go home. Look ahead to go home and their mind not in the game will lead to quick and poor shots. :toast: :toast:
- Mar 18, 2009
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Eric Gordon is Doubtful
Eric Gordon is Doubtful
Gordon has a pulled groin and is probably out for tonight's game. That means I'm not touching the side, but I am thinking of adding the U 194 to my card.
I'll do some more leg work and make a final decision soon.
Eric Gordon is Doubtful
Gordon has a pulled groin and is probably out for tonight's game. That means I'm not touching the side, but I am thinking of adding the U 194 to my card.
I'll do some more leg work and make a final decision soon.
**Homer alert**
Honestly, Toronto +7 looks like a gift. The Spurs have beat the Hornets and Sacramento at home (both bad teams), and have lost decisively to Chicago, Utah & Portland on the road (good teams but not elite). Portland was the second half of the back to back, so we'll trade that for Toronto's Dallas loss (although Dallas is a better team).
San Antonio is dominated by veterans, they don't get scared walking into someone else's venue. So they just straight up are losing badly to non-pushovers. They play ball control (as always) but Popovich has admitted that right now they are a bad defensive team. Methodical offense + bad defense = losing basketball. The outlier is Tony Parker torching Calderon's non-existent defense, but eventually Triano will switch up and play the quicker/bigger Jack to guard. Jack's minutes already nearly match Calderon's, and against an elite PG, Calderon won't stay long on Parker's assignment.
I'm taking a half unit on the ML at +256, but for the non-homers Toronto +7 seems advisable.
Edit: I'm an idiot. Parker is out tonight. George Hill is starting in his place:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3438
An even turnover to assist ratio? I'm taking the bait hook-line and sinker. Full unit on the ML @ +256.
Honestly, Toronto +7 looks like a gift. The Spurs have beat the Hornets and Sacramento at home (both bad teams), and have lost decisively to Chicago, Utah & Portland on the road (good teams but not elite). Portland was the second half of the back to back, so we'll trade that for Toronto's Dallas loss (although Dallas is a better team).
San Antonio is dominated by veterans, they don't get scared walking into someone else's venue. So they just straight up are losing badly to non-pushovers. They play ball control (as always) but Popovich has admitted that right now they are a bad defensive team. Methodical offense + bad defense = losing basketball. The outlier is Tony Parker torching Calderon's non-existent defense, but eventually Triano will switch up and play the quicker/bigger Jack to guard. Jack's minutes already nearly match Calderon's, and against an elite PG, Calderon won't stay long on Parker's assignment.
I'm taking a half unit on the ML at +256, but for the non-homers Toronto +7 seems advisable.
Edit: I'm an idiot. Parker is out tonight. George Hill is starting in his place:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3438
An even turnover to assist ratio? I'm taking the bait hook-line and sinker. Full unit on the ML @ +256.
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- Mar 18, 2009
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Hey Joe really like the Sixers + 2
Public spread %
Phx 81%
Phil 19%
Public is all over Phx , my play PHIL + 2
GLTA
- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 18, 2009
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getting here late
only thing I have for today is PHO/PHI under
in MNF, I bet DEN and lean to the under, but the "Don't bet under on MNF" rule comes into play. If it gets to 42.5 I might not be able to stop myself from betting the under though.
for tomorrow, already locked Houston, not sure how far the line will come down or if people will bet DAL tomorrow.
Good Luck,
Bart
only thing I have for today is PHO/PHI under
in MNF, I bet DEN and lean to the under, but the "Don't bet under on MNF" rule comes into play. If it gets to 42.5 I might not be able to stop myself from betting the under though.
for tomorrow, already locked Houston, not sure how far the line will come down or if people will bet DAL tomorrow.
Good Luck,
Bart
Oh by the way Iadlock:
Phil + 2
Denv/Phil Under 41.5 in the MNF[/COLOR]
Good Luck GS
Sixers +2.. 1/2 unit
Pitt -2 1/2.. 1 unit
Under 41.. 1 unit
BOL to all on here :0corn
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- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 18, 2009
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Spurs
Spurs
Duncan is listed as out tonight? Wish I would've jumped on the Raps.
I also played a parlay of Denver +3 and over 41.5.
Both teams will have a tough time running, so i see alot of passing and big plays on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Steeler's D banged up as well. Good luck fellas. :box2:
Spurs
Duncan is listed as out tonight? Wish I would've jumped on the Raps.
I also played a parlay of Denver +3 and over 41.5.
Both teams will have a tough time running, so i see alot of passing and big plays on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Steeler's D banged up as well. Good luck fellas. :box2: