NBA Projected Lines/Totals

F

Fast Eddie

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1/16/12 Projections

Monday

Location Predicted Line
at New York Knickerbockers Orlando Magic 96.3 New York Knickerbockers 96 -0.2
Neutral Orlando Magic 98.1 New York Knickerbockers 94.2 -3.8
at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 99.8 New York Knickerbockers 92.5 -7.2


Average Pace of Game 192.3
Away Team Controls Pace 191.3
Home Team Controls Pace 193.3


Location Predicted Line
at Memphis Grizzlies Chicago Bulls 90.5 Memphis Grizzlies 88.6 -1.9
Neutral Chicago Bulls 92.3 Memphis Grizzlies 86.8 -5.5
at Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls 94 Memphis Grizzlies 85.1 -8.9


Average Pace of Game 179.1
Away Team Controls Pace 181
Home Team Controls Pace 177.1


Location Predicted Line
at Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 96.4 Milwaukee Bucks 86.9 -9.5
Neutral Philadelphia 76ers 94.7 Milwaukee Bucks 88.6 -6.1
at Milwaukee Bucks Philadelphia 76ers 92.9 Milwaukee Bucks 90.4 -2.5


Average Pace of Game 183.3
Away Team Controls Pace 185.6
Home Team Controls Pace 181


Location Predicted Line
at Washington Wizards Houston Rockets 97.6 Washington Wizards 93.9 -3.6
Neutral Houston Rockets 99.3 Washington Wizards 92.2 -7
at Houston Rockets Houston Rockets 101.1 Washington Wizards 90.4 -10.6


Average Pace of Game 191.5
Away Team Controls Pace 193.3
Home Team Controls Pace 189.7


Location Predicted Line
at Charlotte Bobcats Charlotte Bobcats 95.6 Cleveland Cavaliers 95.5 0
Neutral Cleveland Cavaliers 97.2 Charlotte Bobcats 93.8 -3.4
at Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland Cavaliers 99 Charlotte Bobcats 92.1 -6.9


Average Pace of Game 191.1
Away Team Controls Pace 189.8
Home Team Controls Pace 192.3


Location Predicted Line
at New Orleans Hornets Portland Trail Blazers 92.5 New Orleans Hornets 86.1 -6.4
Neutral Portland Trail Blazers 94.3 New Orleans Hornets 84.4 -9.8
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 96 New Orleans Hornets 82.6 -13.4


Average Pace of Game 178.6
Away Team Controls Pace 183.9
Home Team Controls Pace 173.5


Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Clippers 104.4 New Jersey Nets 92.7 -11.7
Neutral Los Angeles Clippers 102.7 New Jersey Nets 94.4 -8.2
at New Jersey Nets Los Angeles Clippers 100.9 New Jersey Nets 96.2 -4.7


Average Pace of Game 197.1
Away Team Controls Pace 195.1
Home Team Controls Pace 199.1


Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 93.3 Toronto Raptors 83.7 -9.5
Neutral Atlanta Hawks 91.5 Toronto Raptors 85.4 -6
at Toronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks 89.8 Toronto Raptors 87.2 -2.5


Average Pace of Game 177
Away Team Controls Pace 174.4
Home Team Controls Pace 179.6


Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Timberwolves Minnesota Timberwolves 104.1 Sacramento Kings 96.2 -7.8
Neutral Minnesota Timberwolves 102.3 Sacramento Kings 97.9 -4.3
at Sacramento Kings Minnesota Timberwolves 100.6 Sacramento Kings 99.7 -0.8


Average Pace of Game 200.3
Away Team Controls Pace 200.8
Home Team Controls Pace 199.7


Location Predicted Line
at Boston Celtics Oklahoma City Thunder 93.3 Boston Celtics 93.2 0
Neutral Oklahoma City Thunder 95.1 Boston Celtics 91.5 -3.5
at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder 96.8 Boston Celtics 89.7 -7


Average Pace of Game 186.5
Away Team Controls Pace 191.1
Home Team Controls Pace 182


Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers 93.4 Dallas Mavericks 90.8 -2.6
Neutral Dallas Mavericks 92.5 Los Angeles Lakers 91.6 -0.9
at Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 94.3 Los Angeles Lakers 89.9 -4.3


Average Pace of Game 184.1
Away Team Controls Pace 185.8
Home Team Controls Pace 182.5
 
F

Fast Eddie

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Wednesday Projections 1-18

Location Predicted Line
at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 97.1 San Antonio Spurs 92.9 -4.1
Neutral Orlando Magic 95.4 San Antonio Spurs 94.7 -0.7
at San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 96.4 Orlando Magic 93.6 -2.8


Average Pace of Game 190
Away Team Controls Pace 191.3
Home Team Controls Pace 188.8


Location Predicted Line
at Washington Wizards Oklahoma City Thunder 102.7 Washington Wizards 90.4 -12.2
Neutral Oklahoma City Thunder 104.4 Washington Wizards 88.6 -15.8
at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder 106.2 Washington Wizards 86.9 -19.2


Average Pace of Game 193
Away Team Controls Pace 195.6
Home Team Controls Pace 190.5


Location Predicted Line
at Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 102.6 Denver Nuggets 98.2 -4.3
Neutral Philadelphia 76ers 100.8 Denver Nuggets 100 -0.7
at Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets 101.7 Philadelphia 76ers 99.1 -2.6


Average Pace of Game 200.8
Away Team Controls Pace 207.2
Home Team Controls Pace 194.6


Location Predicted Line
at New York Knickerbockers New York Knickerbockers 102.4 Phoenix Suns 96.6 -5.8
Neutral New York Knickerbockers 100.7 Phoenix Suns 98.3 -2.4
at Phoenix Suns Phoenix Suns 100.1 New York Knickerbockers 98.9 -1.1


Average Pace of Game 199
Away Team Controls Pace 195.4
Home Team Controls Pace 202.6


Location Predicted Line
at Boston Celtics Boston Celtics 93 Toronto Raptors 83.6 -9.4
Neutral Boston Celtics 91.3 Toronto Raptors 85.3 -6
at Toronto Raptors Boston Celtics 89.5 Toronto Raptors 87.1 -2.4


Average Pace of Game 176.6
Away Team Controls Pace 171.3
Home Team Controls Pace 181.9


Location Predicted Line
at New Jersey Nets New Jersey Nets 96.8 Golden State Warriors 96.1 -0.7
Neutral Golden State Warriors 97.8 New Jersey Nets 95.1 -2.7
at Golden State Warriors Golden State Warriors 99.6 New Jersey Nets 93.3 -6.2


Average Pace of Game 192.9
Away Team Controls Pace 191
Home Team Controls Pace 194.7


Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 92.5 Portland Trail Blazers 90.9 -1.5
Neutral Portland Trail Blazers 92.6 Atlanta Hawks 90.7 -1.8
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 94.4 Atlanta Hawks 89 -5.4


Average Pace of Game 183.4
Away Team Controls Pace 186.7
Home Team Controls Pace 180.1


Location Predicted Line
at Minnesota Timberwolves Minnesota Timberwolves 97.6 Detroit Pistons 89.1 -8.5
Neutral Minnesota Timberwolves 95.8 Detroit Pistons 90.8 -5
at Detroit Pistons Minnesota Timberwolves 94.1 Detroit Pistons 92.6 -1.5


Average Pace of Game 186.7
Away Team Controls Pace 181.3
Home Team Controls Pace 192.2


Location Predicted Line
at New Orleans Hornets Memphis Grizzlies 89.6 New Orleans Hornets 85.9 -3.6
Neutral Memphis Grizzlies 91.3 New Orleans Hornets 84.1 -7.2
at Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies 93.1 New Orleans Hornets 82.4 -10.6


Average Pace of Game 175.5
Away Team Controls Pace 179
Home Team Controls Pace 172


Location Predicted Line
at Sacramento Kings Indiana Pacers 98.7 Sacramento Kings 93.4 -5.2
Neutral Indiana Pacers 100.4 Sacramento Kings 91.6 -8.8
at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers 102.2 Sacramento Kings 89.9 -12.2


Average Pace of Game 192
Away Team Controls Pace 190.1
Home Team Controls Pace 193.9


Location Predicted Line
at Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Clippers 96.4 Dallas Mavericks 95.4 -1
Neutral Dallas Mavericks 97.2 Los Angeles Clippers 94.7 -2.5
at Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 98.9 Los Angeles Clippers 92.9 -6


Average Pace of Game 191.8
Away Team Controls Pace 187.2
Home Team Controls Pace 196.6
 
F

Fast Eddie

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canuckfan77 said:
I'm not sure how you do it, but well done :toast:
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm using projected pace vs actual pace of the game, then factoring in shooting pct, and line value.

For an under play. I'm looking for these three things:

1. Pace of game must be slower than projected.
2. Combined FG% of both teams are better than expected. (Meaning a regression towards the mean in the 2h)
3. Line Value on 2h total. (Actual total vs a projected total based on closing line and then adjusted based on the 1h total points)

I'm going to only post the plays that my model "suggests" a play. (All 3 of the criteria are met)

There are other opportunities for plays even if only a couple of the different variables are met. However, until I feel more comfortable with those situations I'll only post the plays that meet all three.

Probably fewer plays, but hopefully continued success.
 
F

Fast Eddie

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Saturday Projections

Basketball Predictor Results


Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 98.2 Cleveland Cavaliers 89 -9.2
Neutral Atlanta Hawks 96.4 Cleveland Cavaliers 90.7 -5.7
at Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks 94.7 Cleveland Cavaliers 92.5 -2.2


Average Pace of Game 187.1
Away Team Controls Pace 194.4
Home Team Controls Pace 180


Location Predicted Line
at Detroit Pistons Portland Trail Blazers 95.1 Detroit Pistons 87.5 -7.5
Neutral Portland Trail Blazers 96.9 Detroit Pistons 85.8 -11.1
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 98.6 Detroit Pistons 84 -14.5


Average Pace of Game 182.6
Away Team Controls Pace 184.9
Home Team Controls Pace 180.4


Location Predicted Line
at New York Knickerbockers Denver Nuggets 104.4 New York Knickerbockers 103.8 -0.6
Neutral Denver Nuggets 106.1 New York Knickerbockers 102.1 -4
at Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets 107.9 New York Knickerbockers 100.3 -7.6


Average Pace of Game 208.2
Away Team Controls Pace 212.8
Home Team Controls Pace 203.7


Location Predicted Line
at Miami Heat Miami Heat 100.6 Philadelphia 76ers 93.9 -6.6
Neutral Miami Heat 98.9 Philadelphia 76ers 95.7 -3.2
at Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 97.4 Miami Heat 97.1 -0.3


Average Pace of Game 194.5
Away Team Controls Pace 187.7
Home Team Controls Pace 201.5


Location Predicted Line
at New Jersey Nets Oklahoma City Thunder 102.3 New Jersey Nets 94.4 -7.8
Neutral Oklahoma City Thunder 104.1 New Jersey Nets 92.6 -11.5
at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder 105.8 New Jersey Nets 90.9 -14.8


Average Pace of Game 196.7
Away Team Controls Pace 197.5
Home Team Controls Pace 196


Location Predicted Line
at Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls 99.2 Charlotte Bobcats 83.7 -15.5
Neutral Chicago Bulls 97.5 Charlotte Bobcats 85.4 -12
at Charlotte Bobcats Chicago Bulls 95.7 Charlotte Bobcats 87.2 -8.5


Average Pace of Game 182.9
Away Team Controls Pace 187.5
Home Team Controls Pace 178.4


Location Predicted Line
at Houston Rockets Houston Rockets 97.8 San Antonio Spurs 96.7 -1
Neutral San Antonio Spurs 98.4 Houston Rockets 96 -2.4
at San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 100.2 Houston Rockets 94.3 -5.9


Average Pace of Game 194.5
Away Team Controls Pace 192.8
Home Team Controls Pace 196.1


Location Predicted Line
at Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies 100.2 Sacramento Kings 89.6 -10.6
Neutral Memphis Grizzlies 98.4 Sacramento Kings 91.3 -7.1
at Sacramento Kings Memphis Grizzlies 96.7 Sacramento Kings 93.1 -3.6


Average Pace of Game 189.7
Away Team Controls Pace 194.1
Home Team Controls Pace 185.4


Location Predicted Line
at New Orleans Hornets Dallas Mavericks 90.9 New Orleans Hornets 84.7 -6.2
Neutral Dallas Mavericks 92.7 New Orleans Hornets 83 -9.7
at Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 94.4 New Orleans Hornets 81.2 -13.2


Average Pace of Game 175.6
Away Team Controls Pace 179.5
Home Team Controls Pace 171.8


Location Predicted Line
at Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 97.8 Minnesota Timberwolves 93.8 -4
Neutral Utah Jazz 96 Minnesota Timberwolves 95.5 -0.5
at Minnesota Timberwolves Minnesota Timberwolves 97.3 Utah Jazz 94.3 -3


Average Pace of Game 191.5
Away Team Controls Pace 193.9
Home Team Controls Pace 189.2
 
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