NBA Projected Lines/Totals
- Thread starter Fast Eddie
- Start date
Record 9-8 (+0.2)
I've just made a slight adjustment to how I project the 1st half total and the 2nd half total. Here's why.
Using my original numbers I was generating a 1h line that was too high and a 2nd half projection that was too low. That was showing too many under leans/plays for the second half. I've adjusted and re-tested a bunch of games and it looks like my 2nd half projected line/lean is now correct more often than it was previously.
With the NBA playing a shorter, condensed, schedule that may be the reason why adjusting the initial pct's I use have helped.
I'm seeing much better win pct's even if you just blindly played the over or under based on the the actual 1st total points and adjusting the 2h half total slightly up or down based on that. Without even looking at the shooting pct's. pace of play and game margin.
To make a short story long...I'm feeling much better about my projected 1st half lines and 2nd half totals since I've adjusted the pct of the game line. I guess I'll have to continue to monitor that pct from week to week to make sure the lines makers aren't doing anything different with their 1h and 2h totals.
I should have picked up on it earlier but I wanted to give my original starting numbers a month of solid testing.
I've just made a slight adjustment to how I project the 1st half total and the 2nd half total. Here's why.
Using my original numbers I was generating a 1h line that was too high and a 2nd half projection that was too low. That was showing too many under leans/plays for the second half. I've adjusted and re-tested a bunch of games and it looks like my 2nd half projected line/lean is now correct more often than it was previously.
With the NBA playing a shorter, condensed, schedule that may be the reason why adjusting the initial pct's I use have helped.
I'm seeing much better win pct's even if you just blindly played the over or under based on the the actual 1st total points and adjusting the 2h half total slightly up or down based on that. Without even looking at the shooting pct's. pace of play and game margin.
To make a short story long...I'm feeling much better about my projected 1st half lines and 2nd half totals since I've adjusted the pct of the game line. I guess I'll have to continue to monitor that pct from week to week to make sure the lines makers aren't doing anything different with their 1h and 2h totals.
I should have picked up on it earlier but I wanted to give my original starting numbers a month of solid testing.
Record
12-9 (+2.1)
Monday's full game projections
Location Predicted Line
at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 96.7 Los Angeles Clippers 94.3 -2.4
Neutral Los Angeles Clippers 96 Orlando Magic 95 -1
at Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Clippers 97.8 Orlando Magic 93.2 -4.5
Average Pace of Game 191
Away Team Controls Pace 196.4
Home Team Controls Pace 185.6
Location Predicted Line
at Washington Wizards Washington Wizards 94.5 Toronto Raptors 93.2 -1.2
Neutral Toronto Raptors 94.9 Washington Wizards 92.7 -2.2
at Toronto Raptors Toronto Raptors 96.7 Washington Wizards 91 -5.7
Average Pace of Game 187.6
Away Team Controls Pace 178.5
Home Team Controls Pace 197
Location Predicted Line
at Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 91.3 Los Angeles Lakers 87.8 -3.5
Neutral Philadelphia 76ers 89.6 Los Angeles Lakers 89.5 0
at Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers 91.3 Philadelphia 76ers 87.8 -3.5
Average Pace of Game 179.1
Away Team Controls Pace 178.4
Home Team Controls Pace 179.7
Location Predicted Line
at New Jersey Nets Chicago Bulls 98.4 New Jersey Nets 90.8 -7.6
Neutral Chicago Bulls 100.2 New Jersey Nets 89 -11.2
at Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls 101.9 New Jersey Nets 87.3 -14.6
Average Pace of Game 189.2
Away Team Controls Pace 186.4
Home Team Controls Pace 192
Location Predicted Line
at New York Knickerbockers New York Knickerbockers 98.8 Utah Jazz 95.4 -3.3
Neutral Utah Jazz 97.2 New York Knickerbockers 97.1 -0.1
at Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 98.9 New York Knickerbockers 95.3 -3.6
Average Pace of Game 194.2
Away Team Controls Pace 195.3
Home Team Controls Pace 193.1
Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 98.8 Phoenix Suns 89.7 -9
Neutral Atlanta Hawks 97.1 Phoenix Suns 91.4 -5.6
at Phoenix Suns Atlanta Hawks 95.3 Phoenix Suns 93.2 -2
Average Pace of Game 188.5
Away Team Controls Pace 189.7
Home Team Controls Pace 187.3
Location Predicted Line
at Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies 94.1 San Antonio Spurs 93 -1
Neutral San Antonio Spurs 94.8 Memphis Grizzlies 92.4 -2.3
at San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 96.5 Memphis Grizzlies 90.6 -5.9
Average Pace of Game 187.1
Away Team Controls Pace 190.7
Home Team Controls Pace 183.5
Location Predicted Line
at New Orleans Hornets New Orleans Hornets 93.4 Sacramento Kings 90.7 -2.7
Neutral Sacramento Kings 92.4 New Orleans Hornets 91.7 -0.7
at Sacramento Kings Sacramento Kings 94.2 New Orleans Hornets 89.9 -4.2
Average Pace of Game 184.1
Away Team Controls Pace 190.5
Home Team Controls Pace 177.8
Location Predicted Line
at Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets 106.6 Houston Rockets 100.9 -5.6
Neutral Denver Nuggets 104.8 Houston Rockets 102.6 -2.2
at Houston Rockets Houston Rockets 104.4 Denver Nuggets 103.1 -1.3
Average Pace of Game 207.5
Away Team Controls Pace 205.4
Home Team Controls Pace 209.5
Location Predicted Line
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 99 Oklahoma City Thunder 97 -2
Neutral Oklahoma City Thunder 98.8 Portland Trail Blazers 97.3 -1.5
at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder 100.5 Portland Trail Blazers 95.5 -5
Average Pace of Game 196
Away Team Controls Pace 202.1
Home Team Controls Pace 190
12-9 (+2.1)
Monday's full game projections
Location Predicted Line
at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic 96.7 Los Angeles Clippers 94.3 -2.4
Neutral Los Angeles Clippers 96 Orlando Magic 95 -1
at Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Clippers 97.8 Orlando Magic 93.2 -4.5
Average Pace of Game 191
Away Team Controls Pace 196.4
Home Team Controls Pace 185.6
Location Predicted Line
at Washington Wizards Washington Wizards 94.5 Toronto Raptors 93.2 -1.2
Neutral Toronto Raptors 94.9 Washington Wizards 92.7 -2.2
at Toronto Raptors Toronto Raptors 96.7 Washington Wizards 91 -5.7
Average Pace of Game 187.6
Away Team Controls Pace 178.5
Home Team Controls Pace 197
Location Predicted Line
at Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 91.3 Los Angeles Lakers 87.8 -3.5
Neutral Philadelphia 76ers 89.6 Los Angeles Lakers 89.5 0
at Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers 91.3 Philadelphia 76ers 87.8 -3.5
Average Pace of Game 179.1
Away Team Controls Pace 178.4
Home Team Controls Pace 179.7
Location Predicted Line
at New Jersey Nets Chicago Bulls 98.4 New Jersey Nets 90.8 -7.6
Neutral Chicago Bulls 100.2 New Jersey Nets 89 -11.2
at Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls 101.9 New Jersey Nets 87.3 -14.6
Average Pace of Game 189.2
Away Team Controls Pace 186.4
Home Team Controls Pace 192
Location Predicted Line
at New York Knickerbockers New York Knickerbockers 98.8 Utah Jazz 95.4 -3.3
Neutral Utah Jazz 97.2 New York Knickerbockers 97.1 -0.1
at Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 98.9 New York Knickerbockers 95.3 -3.6
Average Pace of Game 194.2
Away Team Controls Pace 195.3
Home Team Controls Pace 193.1
Location Predicted Line
at Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 98.8 Phoenix Suns 89.7 -9
Neutral Atlanta Hawks 97.1 Phoenix Suns 91.4 -5.6
at Phoenix Suns Atlanta Hawks 95.3 Phoenix Suns 93.2 -2
Average Pace of Game 188.5
Away Team Controls Pace 189.7
Home Team Controls Pace 187.3
Location Predicted Line
at Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies 94.1 San Antonio Spurs 93 -1
Neutral San Antonio Spurs 94.8 Memphis Grizzlies 92.4 -2.3
at San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs 96.5 Memphis Grizzlies 90.6 -5.9
Average Pace of Game 187.1
Away Team Controls Pace 190.7
Home Team Controls Pace 183.5
Location Predicted Line
at New Orleans Hornets New Orleans Hornets 93.4 Sacramento Kings 90.7 -2.7
Neutral Sacramento Kings 92.4 New Orleans Hornets 91.7 -0.7
at Sacramento Kings Sacramento Kings 94.2 New Orleans Hornets 89.9 -4.2
Average Pace of Game 184.1
Away Team Controls Pace 190.5
Home Team Controls Pace 177.8
Location Predicted Line
at Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets 106.6 Houston Rockets 100.9 -5.6
Neutral Denver Nuggets 104.8 Houston Rockets 102.6 -2.2
at Houston Rockets Houston Rockets 104.4 Denver Nuggets 103.1 -1.3
Average Pace of Game 207.5
Away Team Controls Pace 205.4
Home Team Controls Pace 209.5
Location Predicted Line
at Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 99 Oklahoma City Thunder 97 -2
Neutral Oklahoma City Thunder 98.8 Portland Trail Blazers 97.3 -1.5
at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder 100.5 Portland Trail Blazers 95.5 -5
Average Pace of Game 196
Away Team Controls Pace 202.1
Home Team Controls Pace 190
