Record 9-8 (+0.2)
I've just made a slight adjustment to how I project the 1st half total and the 2nd half total. Here's why.
Using my original numbers I was generating a 1h line that was too high and a 2nd half projection that was too low. That was showing too many under leans/plays for the second half. I've adjusted and re-tested a bunch of games and it looks like my 2nd half projected line/lean is now correct more often than it was previously.
With the NBA playing a shorter, condensed, schedule that may be the reason why adjusting the initial pct's I use have helped.
I'm seeing much better win pct's even if you just blindly played the over or under based on the the actual 1st total points and adjusting the 2h half total slightly up or down based on that. Without even looking at the shooting pct's. pace of play and game margin.
To make a short story long...I'm feeling much better about my projected 1st half lines and 2nd half totals since I've adjusted the pct of the game line. I guess I'll have to continue to monitor that pct from week to week to make sure the lines makers aren't doing anything different with their 1h and 2h totals.
I should have picked up on it earlier but I wanted to give my original starting numbers a month of solid testing.