NBA Props
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Haven't been playing many props lately because of the high juice attached, however I think these are mis-priced, largely based on matchups and expected minutes.
E. KANTER (NYK) TOTAL UNDER 26? PTS+REB+AST (-120) 2.5x
T. HARDAWAY (NYK) TOTAL OVER 22? PTS+REB+AST (-120) 2.5x
E. KANTER (NYK) TOTAL UNDER 26? PTS+REB+AST (-120) 2.5x
T. HARDAWAY (NYK) TOTAL OVER 22? PTS+REB+AST (-120) 2.5x
Fiz said he would play him but he didn?t get in. Did You get graded ?no bet? on his prop?
BOS @ NYK
BOS @ NYK
This prop is really too high if you solely take into account Knox's season averages, but there are a number of situational factors in play that make the OVER a solid play. The obvious one is the depth the Knicks have available tonight, especially on the wings. None of the guys that came over in the trade are playing and the three others they traded away were scoring wings as well. That means NO Dennis Smith, NO Wes Matthews, NO Jordan, NO Courtney Lee, NO Hardaway and NO Trey Burke. Now, the absence of the last two players is what I want to focus on because that eliminates 31 Pts/gm and 10 3P Att/gm from the lineup. Subtract Ntilikina and Mudiay who are out with injuries tonight and that leaves Kadeem Allen, Damyean Dotson, Trier and KEVIN KNOX as the only wing scorers remaining. Vonleh and Thomas will get heavy minutes at PF and neither are high volume scorers or three point shooters. Quite simply, the Knicks will NEED Kevin Knox to step up his volume tonight just to fill the void left by all the players sitting out. Trier, will start at SG with Dotson backing him up, will also have to split time at PG. Knox could be looking at a career high in minutes tonight with a floor of around 38-40 minutes of court action.
Add in the motivational factor and I'll just let the following speak for itself:
I have Knox's point total alone set at 19 tonight as a baseline, but the other statistical areas where he will be needed to contribute are just a bonus. He should go over this number in the 3rd quarter.
KEVIN KNOX (NYK) TOTAL PTS+REB+AST OVER 21? (-135) 3x
I will also mention that I am looking at playing the OVER on Kyrie Irving's Point total in this same game. There are supporting situational and arena-specific statistical factors in play tonight, but do I want to get the final confirmation that he will be in the starting lineup as he has been dealing with a hip issue and this is not exactly a game where they will need him to play in the role of heavy favorites. I do believe that if he plays, he will put on a strong scoring performance, as has been his M.O. playing in the World's Most Famous Arena.
BOS @ NYK
This prop is really too high if you solely take into account Knox's season averages, but there are a number of situational factors in play that make the OVER a solid play. The obvious one is the depth the Knicks have available tonight, especially on the wings. None of the guys that came over in the trade are playing and the three others they traded away were scoring wings as well. That means NO Dennis Smith, NO Wes Matthews, NO Jordan, NO Courtney Lee, NO Hardaway and NO Trey Burke. Now, the absence of the last two players is what I want to focus on because that eliminates 31 Pts/gm and 10 3P Att/gm from the lineup. Subtract Ntilikina and Mudiay who are out with injuries tonight and that leaves Kadeem Allen, Damyean Dotson, Trier and KEVIN KNOX as the only wing scorers remaining. Vonleh and Thomas will get heavy minutes at PF and neither are high volume scorers or three point shooters. Quite simply, the Knicks will NEED Kevin Knox to step up his volume tonight just to fill the void left by all the players sitting out. Trier, will start at SG with Dotson backing him up, will also have to split time at PG. Knox could be looking at a career high in minutes tonight with a floor of around 38-40 minutes of court action.
Add in the motivational factor and I'll just let the following speak for itself:
I have Knox's point total alone set at 19 tonight as a baseline, but the other statistical areas where he will be needed to contribute are just a bonus. He should go over this number in the 3rd quarter.
KEVIN KNOX (NYK) TOTAL PTS+REB+AST OVER 21? (-135) 3x
I will also mention that I am looking at playing the OVER on Kyrie Irving's Point total in this same game. There are supporting situational and arena-specific statistical factors in play tonight, but do I want to get the final confirmation that he will be in the starting lineup as he has been dealing with a hip issue and this is not exactly a game where they will need him to play in the role of heavy favorites. I do believe that if he plays, he will put on a strong scoring performance, as has been his M.O. playing in the World's Most Famous Arena.
On the season... really, since December, when Fizdale started giving Knox more minutes, he hadn't logged a game with over 30 minutes. Since then:
When Knox has played 33+ minutes, he's gone OVER 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast in 11 of 16 games.
When Knox has played 36+ minutes, he's gone OVER 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast in 9 of 12 games.
...couldn't get confirmation on Kyrie in time. Celtics didn't announce their lineup :shrug:
When Knox has played 33+ minutes, he's gone OVER 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast in 11 of 16 games.
When Knox has played 36+ minutes, he's gone OVER 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast in 9 of 12 games.
...couldn't get confirmation on Kyrie in time. Celtics didn't announce their lineup :shrug:
HOU/MIL
HOU/MIL
This is a big one in terms of the MVP race as well as the playoff race. These guys will be going for their numbers tonight with Harden currently trailing in the race in terms of the current MVP odds. I heard the Westgate currently has it posted as Giannis -250 and Harden +200. It shouldn't really be the case (in my opinion anyway), but this game will factor heavily in perception and the voters minds. Milwaukee won in Houston in a fairly tight game in early January. In terms of the reigning MVP and the potential next one, they should be looking to max out the stat sheet and a win helps too (silghtly more for the Rockets). Should also be noted that Milwaukee is missing a couple of key guys and contributors on offense. Here's how I played it, but there are other options depending on what your book offers....
J. HARDEN (HOU) TOTAL PTS OVER 36? (-135) 4x
J. HARDEN (HOU) TOTAL REB+AST OVER 13? (-110) 5x
G. ANTETKOUMPO (MIL) TOTAL PTS OVER 29? (-110) 5x
HOU/MIL
This is a big one in terms of the MVP race as well as the playoff race. These guys will be going for their numbers tonight with Harden currently trailing in the race in terms of the current MVP odds. I heard the Westgate currently has it posted as Giannis -250 and Harden +200. It shouldn't really be the case (in my opinion anyway), but this game will factor heavily in perception and the voters minds. Milwaukee won in Houston in a fairly tight game in early January. In terms of the reigning MVP and the potential next one, they should be looking to max out the stat sheet and a win helps too (silghtly more for the Rockets). Should also be noted that Milwaukee is missing a couple of key guys and contributors on offense. Here's how I played it, but there are other options depending on what your book offers....
J. HARDEN (HOU) TOTAL PTS OVER 36? (-135) 4x
J. HARDEN (HOU) TOTAL REB+AST OVER 13? (-110) 5x
G. ANTETKOUMPO (MIL) TOTAL PTS OVER 29? (-110) 5x
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Hopefully can make up a little bit for last night. This one seems obvious with Nurkic injured, but Kanter should get plenty of minutes tonight and anxious to prove he can step up. Chicago ranks dead last in opponent defensive rebounding rate. No Markkanen, no Carter Jr. Bulls only have Lopez as a semi-quality big. Only thing that can hurt us here is a complete blowout where Zach Collins gets a lot of minutes late.
E. KANTER (POR) TOTAL OVER 10? REB (-135) 2x
E. KANTER (POR) TOTAL OVER 10? REB (-135) 2x
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Sorry, another horrible call. The player props have just not been working out this season, hence why I've played/posted so few of them.
Damn, sorry for the late post. I read the news late, so getting in my plays didn't leave me enough time to post. Boston live bet opportunity might be coming up soon though.
