NBA Sunday 04-05-09 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter Ace_Ace
- Start date
I like the under Lakers - Clippers 209 tonight. I think Lakers will score more than 100 points but I don't think the Clippers will score more than 90 points.
Then I like the over Indiana - Oklahoma. This will be a run and shoot game.
Then I like the over Indiana - Oklahoma. This will be a run and shoot game.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Portland/Houston
Portland/Houston
not sure if any of the query guys around or not -- but we have portland coming off 4 straight 20+ wins and now playing a +.600 win team, as a 3.5 dog. Anything out there on teams coming off 4 straight blowout wins?
Portland/Houston
not sure if any of the query guys around or not -- but we have portland coming off 4 straight 20+ wins and now playing a +.600 win team, as a 3.5 dog. Anything out there on teams coming off 4 straight blowout wins?
- Mar 18, 2009
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Denver/Minn
Denver/Minn
liking Den here:
MINNESOTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) at home when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) vs. division opponents, off 3 or more consecutive home wins
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
Haven't played since Dec, but Den handled by 9 and 11 their 2 meetings this year.
Nuggets are 28-9-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Timberwolves are 31-63-1 ATS in their last 95 home games.
Timberwolves are 19-45 ATS in their last 64 games as a home underdog.
Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
I loved Minn vs Ut a few days ago - thought situation was ripe for the cover -- and they won it outright. With the injuries they have playing another playoff team - I don't see -- especially since they are not a good home court team.
Denver/Minn
liking Den here:
MINNESOTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) at home when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) vs. division opponents, off 3 or more consecutive home wins
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
Haven't played since Dec, but Den handled by 9 and 11 their 2 meetings this year.
Nuggets are 28-9-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Timberwolves are 31-63-1 ATS in their last 95 home games.
Timberwolves are 19-45 ATS in their last 64 games as a home underdog.
Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
I loved Minn vs Ut a few days ago - thought situation was ripe for the cover -- and they won it outright. With the injuries they have playing another playoff team - I don't see -- especially since they are not a good home court team.
Accuscore as of 11am EST-
Cavs 4.4 and 177.6
Mavs 4.8 and 236.4
Pistons 3.8 and 177.2
Raptors 6.6 and 220.2
Hornets 6.0 and 192.6
Rockets 1.6 and 183.2
Nuggets 11.5 and 203.7
Pacers 2.0 and 210.6
Sixers .5 and 194.5
Kings 0.0 and 246
Lakers 21.5 and 210.9
Thoughts/Trends etc:
Dogs 4.0+ are 9-1 (Pacers @ +3 or more qualify for this angle) Golden State @ +4 also would qualify
Favs 4.0 are 2-7 (Lakers @ -16.5 or more qualify as fade material to take the Clips)
Dogs of 2.1-2.9 are 16-23-1 (Qualifiers today: Spurs @ -6.5 or -7, Blazers at -4 or -4.5)
Situational Plays today:
Det @ home-playoff implications, Raja Bell with tweaked ankle for Charlotte, Iverson distraction behind Detroit who typically plays horrible @ home on Sunday, I look for complete effort from Detroit to lockdown their playoff spot @ home today. Should be full crowd on hand with all the Final Four buzz in the city. Detroit -2 1U
Mavs @ home vs Suns, big game for Mavs today on home court with short line, look for big effort. Mavs -3.5 1 unit
Hornets @ home, Jazz road woes continue, CP3 ready for this game to secure their standing and try to bump them up with Houston for 5th. NO -2.5 1 unit
Cavs/Spurs U181- Playoff type atmosphere, Cavs been a little lax lately, now Lakers trail by 1 game, its time for some home defense, shut down type of game, score 87-79. 1 unit
edits: Changed lines on Ind to qualify for angle, added GSW potential line to qualify for angle, removed Indiana Play until line adjusts to where it needs to be to qualify.
Cavs 4.4 and 177.6
Mavs 4.8 and 236.4
Pistons 3.8 and 177.2
Raptors 6.6 and 220.2
Hornets 6.0 and 192.6
Rockets 1.6 and 183.2
Nuggets 11.5 and 203.7
Pacers 2.0 and 210.6
Sixers .5 and 194.5
Kings 0.0 and 246
Lakers 21.5 and 210.9
Thoughts/Trends etc:
Dogs 4.0+ are 9-1 (Pacers @ +3 or more qualify for this angle) Golden State @ +4 also would qualify
Favs 4.0 are 2-7 (Lakers @ -16.5 or more qualify as fade material to take the Clips)
Dogs of 2.1-2.9 are 16-23-1 (Qualifiers today: Spurs @ -6.5 or -7, Blazers at -4 or -4.5)
Situational Plays today:
Det @ home-playoff implications, Raja Bell with tweaked ankle for Charlotte, Iverson distraction behind Detroit who typically plays horrible @ home on Sunday, I look for complete effort from Detroit to lockdown their playoff spot @ home today. Should be full crowd on hand with all the Final Four buzz in the city. Detroit -2 1U
Mavs @ home vs Suns, big game for Mavs today on home court with short line, look for big effort. Mavs -3.5 1 unit
Hornets @ home, Jazz road woes continue, CP3 ready for this game to secure their standing and try to bump them up with Houston for 5th. NO -2.5 1 unit
Cavs/Spurs U181- Playoff type atmosphere, Cavs been a little lax lately, now Lakers trail by 1 game, its time for some home defense, shut down type of game, score 87-79. 1 unit
edits: Changed lines on Ind to qualify for angle, added GSW potential line to qualify for angle, removed Indiana Play until line adjusts to where it needs to be to qualify.
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Accuscore
Accuscore
Cle by 3.9 177.5
Dal by 4.8 236.4
Det by 3.8 177.2
Tor by 6.6 219.2
Hou by 1.6 183.4
Noh by 6 192.6
Den by 11.5 203.9
Ind by 1 209.8
NJ by .5 194.5
Gst/Sac pick 246
Lak by 21.5 210.9
Accuscore
Cle by 3.9 177.5
Dal by 4.8 236.4
Det by 3.8 177.2
Tor by 6.6 219.2
Hou by 1.6 183.4
Noh by 6 192.6
Den by 11.5 203.9
Ind by 1 209.8
NJ by .5 194.5
Gst/Sac pick 246
Lak by 21.5 210.9
- Mar 18, 2009
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Careful with Detroit -- they must be a Saturday night party group:
DETROIT is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) on Sunday games this season.
Made some revisions to my original post, with changes in Accuscore, Indiana would need to be +3 to qualify, GSW @ +4 would also qualify for the dog trend. Removed my Indiana play for right now unless the line moves to +3.
So did you get any EMAIL today JB
No, possible no system play today. I will let you guys know if I do.
- Mar 18, 2009
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I think it is do or die day for Charlotte, not Detroit. Charlotte is 2 games back - 3 back and the fork goes in them. Larry Brown is a good coach in these situations. Bell doubtful does hurt them though.
The over/under here of 174 - this seems like such an overreaction to the last game and the "playoff" atmosphere of the game. I can see close game with both teams in the mid-80's.
Thanks a lot
So what you think on the early game? Spur +6 ok to play?
If i was going to play it I would prob take CLE but I am not going to play it. Perhaps just a little on the over. But probably not even that.
PHO over 118 1H
IND over 212
is all I am honed in on right now.
- Mar 18, 2009
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We have another one of those totals with the SAC / GS game - 246!!!! :scared
Not surprisingly we have the majority on the UNDER it looks like - how could it be possible to score that many points. We have all seen what that means - NOT UNDER!!!!
I personally like CLEV at home today.
LBJ and gang have a chance to do something that hasn't been done in the modern age of the NBA with a one-loss at home record for the season. Their last couple losses on the road are a result of poor focus and not caring as much about the games as they are for this home record - IMHO.
I look for them to come out and dominate as they have all year save for that one game that they lost to LA when LA was playing better than they have been lately. SA is still trying to gel with the big 3 all playing, and have struggled against lesser teams than CLEV. I would lean UNDER on the total, but hate having a side and UNDER play on the same game as I would rather see CLEV dominate this SA team.
Now having said all that - gotta try to find out why the line is dropping.............:shrug:
People must love getting this many points with SA. I mean, they have won the Championship 4 times the last 9 years................right???
CLEV - 1.5 1st Q
CLEV -5.5
That's my best guess.
Not surprisingly we have the majority on the UNDER it looks like - how could it be possible to score that many points. We have all seen what that means - NOT UNDER!!!!
I personally like CLEV at home today.
LBJ and gang have a chance to do something that hasn't been done in the modern age of the NBA with a one-loss at home record for the season. Their last couple losses on the road are a result of poor focus and not caring as much about the games as they are for this home record - IMHO.
I look for them to come out and dominate as they have all year save for that one game that they lost to LA when LA was playing better than they have been lately. SA is still trying to gel with the big 3 all playing, and have struggled against lesser teams than CLEV. I would lean UNDER on the total, but hate having a side and UNDER play on the same game as I would rather see CLEV dominate this SA team.
Now having said all that - gotta try to find out why the line is dropping.............:shrug:
People must love getting this many points with SA. I mean, they have won the Championship 4 times the last 9 years................right???
CLEV - 1.5 1st Q
CLEV -5.5
That's my best guess.
