NBA Sunday 04-05-09 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Ools]

Any thought on the Sun game bros?

everyone in the right role for the over:

Over is 20-8 in Suns last 28 games as a road underdog.
Over is 11-3 in Suns last 14 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 11-3 in Mavericks last 14 games as a home favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Last 2 they played vs each other 228 and 239 totals. And Phoenix has done more things lately to keep the tempo up.

In phx last 25 games both teams have scored 100+ pts in 21 of those games, 15 of the 25 both teams have scored 109+. Add in the Dal team that is avg 101 per game for the season and giving up 100 per game for the season. Liking the over. the only concern is the playoof atmosphere, but since I don;t think Phx believes they can win with a slower tempo, I think they continue to run and gun - with a Dal team not too afraid to keep it up tempo themselves.

Over, but nothing crazy.

 

[Ools]

good early sign in over for phx/dal -- in 1st 6 mins both of Dal big men have 2 fouls -- so no one left to protect middle on drives or post for shaq.

will be paying close attention for possible phx 2nd half play

 

[barts185]

It seems like the books have been adjusting the numbers a lot lately. A few games that I thought would be plays today came out with numbers that are too close.

For example, CLE now supposedly focusing on defense, but the total was around 12 points lower than the average total for their games this season.

The one time they played the Spurs, the total was set at 177 and it went over by 6.

Tough to call with CLE the last few games.


I thought I would like the NOT under in the DEN/MIN game, but was hoping for a number around 200 or 201.

MIN seeking revenge for same season loss and playing at home is 21-12 to the over scoring an average of 204.4

Specifically when playing at home seeking revenge for a same season road loss 8-4 to the over, but the average line in the games was 201.8, and they scored 209.3 on average. At 208, a pass.


In the UTA/NOR game, lean to the under, but think it's too close to play.

NOR, same season revenge, 4-13 to the under, average line 192.5, average score 184.8, so far so good.

when playing at home average line 191.8, average score 183.8

So looks good from the NOR point of view, but for UTA

Playing a team they beat earlier in the season
Average total 202.8, average score 202.4

Playing on the road when meeting a team they beat at home
Average total 204.5 average score 204.6

UTA and NOR have played twice, both in UTA and the games landed at 196 and 190

So I guess bottom line in this game is whether or not NOR will be able to control the tempo.

UTA has DAL right on their tails to decide who gets to lose to the Lakers in the 1st round, so while I don't think UTA is a good road team, not looking to rely on NOR will be able to control this game.

So, looks like a big pass for me today.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[Ools]

after 72 in qtr 1 -- only need to avg 53 a qtr to get this over -- crazy!!

 

[marcb1oo5]

over is a lock, congrats

 

[Ools]

i think i'm going on the Car/Det over -- moved 174 to 176 -- like it earlier and waited -- not sure now??

 

[Ools]

with Bell out - less D in the game, so liking over more +:
Over is 9-1 in Pistons last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 10-4-1 in Pistons last 15 overall.
Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games as a road underdog.

1/2 unit on this over - now that it moved a basket

 

[Ools]

goin to grab knicks here to -- getting 5.5 at home vs a team they played even with last night except one stat - 9 three pointers vs 4 three pointers made -- road is usually less friendly for that stat

1/2 unit to knicks

 

[Ools]

goin to grab knicks here to -- getting 5.5 at home vs a team they played even with last night except one stat - 9 three pointers vs 4 three pointers made -- road is usually less friendly for that stat

1/2 unit to knicks

oops -- knick are on the road -- i'll stick with it based on the stats from last night

 

[barts185]

not sure if any of the query guys around or not -- but we have portland coming off 4 straight 20+ wins and now playing a +.600 win team, as a 3.5 dog. Anything out there on teams coming off 4 straight blowout wins?

I only show 3 instances in the whole history of the database for a team to have had 4 20+wins in a row.

11/15/96 CHI beat WAS in WAS 116-109 as an 11 point favorite. Total was 207.5

03/05/96 CHI beat MIL in CHI 115-106 as a 17.5 point favorite. Total was 198

12/10 2008 CLE beat PHI in PHI 101-93 as a 6.5 point favorite. Total was 186.5

So, 3-0 to the over.


If you lower the margin to 15 it shifts to the under and the opponent.
ATS: 13-20-0 (-2.4) avg line: -6.9
O/U: 12-20-1 (-2.5) avg total: 190.5

 

[Ools]

I only show 3 instances in the whole history of the database for a team to have had 4 20+wins in a row.

11/15/96 CHI beat WAS in WAS 116-109 as an 11 point favorite. Total was 207.5

03/05/96 CHI beat MIL in CHI 115-106 as a 17.5 point favorite. Total was 198

12/10 2008 CLE beat PHI in PHI 101-93 as a 6.5 point favorite. Total was 186.5

So, 3-0 to the over.


If you lower the margin to 15 it shifts to the under and the opponent.
ATS: 13-20-0 (-2.4) avg line: -6.9
O/U: 12-20-1 (-2.5) avg total: 190.5

dogs were 2-1 as well --- too limited to draw anything from though

 

[Ools]

Accuscore as of 11am EST-

Cavs 4.4 and 177.6
Mavs 4.8 and 236.4
Pistons 3.8 and 177.2
Raptors 6.6 and 220.2
Hornets 6.0 and 192.6
Rockets 1.6 and 183.2
Nuggets 11.5 and 203.7
Pacers 2.0 and 210.6
Sixers .5 and 194.5
Kings 0.0 and 246
Lakers 21.5 and 210.9

Thoughts/Trends etc:

Dogs 4.0+ are 9-1 (Pacers @ +3 or more qualify for this angle) Golden State @ +4 also would qualify

Favs 4.0 are 2-7 (Lakers @ -16.5 or more qualify as fade material to take the Clips)

Dogs of 2.1-2.9 are 16-23-1 (Qualifiers today: Spurs @ -6.5 or -7, Blazers at -4 or -4.5)

Situational Plays today:

Det @ home-playoff implications, Raja Bell with tweaked ankle for Charlotte, Iverson distraction behind Detroit who typically plays horrible @ home on Sunday, I look for complete effort from Detroit to lockdown their playoff spot @ home today. Should be full crowd on hand with all the Final Four buzz in the city. Detroit -2 1U

Mavs @ home vs Suns, big game for Mavs today on home court with short line, look for big effort. Mavs -3.5 1 unit

Hornets @ home, Jazz road woes continue, CP3 ready for this game to secure their standing and try to bump them up with Houston for 5th. NO -2.5 1 unit


Cavs/Spurs U181- Playoff type atmosphere, Cavs been a little lax lately, now Lakers trail by 1 game, its time for some home defense, shut down type of game, score 87-79. 1 unit

edits: Changed lines on Ind to qualify for angle, added GSW potential line to qualify for angle, removed Indiana Play until line adjusts to where it needs to be to qualify.

Detroit looking strong - bell being out scared me off Char - especially after reading some of the quotes about him not being there. Took the over though