NBA THU 031909 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter axp59
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- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 17, 2009
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haha that last 2 by odom pushed my u116 to over by one. damn....well, lets get em 2morrow boys!
Well it turned out to be a decent 1/2U + winning day despite all the action. Darn Zags got me should have locked it in earlier in the week.
Glad to see the POD won, nice work Ax.
For those following, the Accuscore ATS Sides went 11-5 in NCAA Action today against the closing line. It went 7-9 on totals (despite it picking 14 unders/2 overs (both overs won btw), I look for bettors to be pounding overs hard tomorrow so some value might be created there.
I'll be out and about tmorrow all day, heading to take the little one to see his grandparents but I should have a post up for early NCAA action and I'll try to get another one in around 4-5pm for the late games.
Glad to see the POD won, nice work Ax.
For those following, the Accuscore ATS Sides went 11-5 in NCAA Action today against the closing line. It went 7-9 on totals (despite it picking 14 unders/2 overs (both overs won btw), I look for bettors to be pounding overs hard tomorrow so some value might be created there.
I'll be out and about tmorrow all day, heading to take the little one to see his grandparents but I should have a post up for early NCAA action and I'll try to get another one in around 4-5pm for the late games.
- Mar 18, 2009
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It's never that easy, is it ? Damn...
Leave it to the Fakers to play down to the competition all the time.....Oh well, still up 1 unit from the POD so can't complain too much! Going to sleep now, guys. Let's get it tmr!
It's never that easy, is it ? Damn...
down in the 70th percentile...regression caught up with us
- Mar 18, 2009
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Ax -
I know you're in Mass and a Celtics' supporter; given what I've seen so far this year from the Lakers, I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to come out of the West to face Boston (or Cleveland if they should emerge)...
Can't switch on and off defense whenever you feel like it; habits are ingrained over the course of a season and when push comes to shove, DEFENSE wins championships, not aesthetically pretty offensive outputs.
Up 18 and can't push it to 20 + to close out the game and wrest it from an intentionally undermanned Warriors squad. Pathetic. Would be most karmic if they get ousted in the 1st round.
I know you're in Mass and a Celtics' supporter; given what I've seen so far this year from the Lakers, I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to come out of the West to face Boston (or Cleveland if they should emerge)...
Can't switch on and off defense whenever you feel like it; habits are ingrained over the course of a season and when push comes to shove, DEFENSE wins championships, not aesthetically pretty offensive outputs.
Up 18 and can't push it to 20 + to close out the game and wrest it from an intentionally undermanned Warriors squad. Pathetic. Would be most karmic if they get ousted in the 1st round.
- Mar 18, 2009
- 1,150
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Oh well, still up 1 unit from the POD so can't complain too much! Going to sleep now, guys. Let's get it tmr!
LA Fakers do it again oh well got the POD and ATL, therefore not too much damage done. Lost to Miss st therefore down 1 unit
Thanks Av, we do try.
Again, we bring another thread to a close. The play was DAL/ATL U196.6 (196 for some) and boy did it look ugly early. The stats and trends supported this play but personally, I was sold on an article from Dallas provided by one of the cappers here. Sorry I can't recall exactly but it seems like everyone was working hard on this one. Dirk told a reporter that they needed to slow the game down. This info coupled even with neutral stats and trends would shift a lean to the under but as I previously stated, there were plenty there to support an under play without Dirk's words. Besides, if it didn't hit, we would have only Dirk to blame.
By HT the total was 101, I could sense a little worry if not panic. Just thankful Eagle is on vacation in the Philippines because he's the last person you want to be next to in a sportsbook when there's a tight game. LOL He makes ME nervous. All in good fun Eagle, remember we paid for half your vacation already LOL.
There was a little discussion on hedging but after looking over my cap notes, I let the good folks here that I was going to let it ride. My notes and numbers told me that the 4Q was going to be make or break. I didn't tell the crew our cushion according to my numbers was only 1 point. @196 push we only had 95 to play with in 2H. I capped the 2H at 94. What sold me was the exponential smoothing model I ran on the two teams. Exponential smoothing weighs most recent values most and less so as the data gets older. All pointed to a low scoring 4Q.
Lucky or accurate, I really don't care. Sometimes we need just that one bit of information to sway our indecisive minds to act quickly. Looked good to me and once again, we're off to the window. And Eagle's "are we ok, are we good?" slowly fades into a whisper.....
Nice call guys, thank you.
Again, we bring another thread to a close. The play was DAL/ATL U196.6 (196 for some) and boy did it look ugly early. The stats and trends supported this play but personally, I was sold on an article from Dallas provided by one of the cappers here. Sorry I can't recall exactly but it seems like everyone was working hard on this one. Dirk told a reporter that they needed to slow the game down. This info coupled even with neutral stats and trends would shift a lean to the under but as I previously stated, there were plenty there to support an under play without Dirk's words. Besides, if it didn't hit, we would have only Dirk to blame.
By HT the total was 101, I could sense a little worry if not panic. Just thankful Eagle is on vacation in the Philippines because he's the last person you want to be next to in a sportsbook when there's a tight game. LOL He makes ME nervous. All in good fun Eagle, remember we paid for half your vacation already LOL.
There was a little discussion on hedging but after looking over my cap notes, I let the good folks here that I was going to let it ride. My notes and numbers told me that the 4Q was going to be make or break. I didn't tell the crew our cushion according to my numbers was only 1 point. @196 push we only had 95 to play with in 2H. I capped the 2H at 94. What sold me was the exponential smoothing model I ran on the two teams. Exponential smoothing weighs most recent values most and less so as the data gets older. All pointed to a low scoring 4Q.
Lucky or accurate, I really don't care. Sometimes we need just that one bit of information to sway our indecisive minds to act quickly. Looked good to me and once again, we're off to the window. And Eagle's "are we ok, are we good?" slowly fades into a whisper.....
Nice call guys, thank you.
I watched that game last night and I felt Phil Jackson's pain. You can read it in his face. He knows...he knows he doesn't have a championship team. And I agree with him and you ETZ!
I think I'll be back early enough to play some 2H's tonight for pocket change. Let's get back to 80% boss!
Put this one behind you Grindstone and learn from it. I sure did...remember Phil Jackson's face everytime you think about taking the Lakers. Now enjoy your vacation with you family!
