NBA Tue 030910- Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[axp59]

Always good to see you and hear that things are going well.

At least part of the move on the game was when it was announced that Granger would be suspended for this game.

The line was actually creeping up, peaked at around 211 or 211.5, then plummeted when the announcement was made, and then as word got around, got bet down even more (well, I'm guessing at that part, but books did lower the total when the announcement was made).

good enough Barts. Nice to see you buddy.

I just did some information gathering and even with Granger out, I'm apprehensive about the value left on this one. I got in early but I'm going to buy some more with some artificial value.

loose change on a parlay: PHI/IND U with ML on ORL, POR & LAL

at about 1.5 to 1, 207 isn't so bad

time to hit the showers and off to a meeting. Nice catching up fellas. Best of luck to all of you and remember the easiest part of the season is coming...PLAYOFFS.

 

[axp59]

Good to you you around, and must thank you for telling me of this great site about a year ago. Was across the street and tailed you there for several under winners, again thanks and good luck to you.

Thank you and good to see you too buddy. These guys are great!

 

[CoFred]

Ax! What's up buddy. We miss you but we're doing well this year. GS is doing great and Billy's record is awesome as well. :00hour Glad you could stop by and was wondering if you plan on posting MLB plays this year. Thanks pal and hope all is well.

:toast:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

AAAAAAAAAAAXXX!!!!!! good to see you man :00hour

 

[BillyBatts]

Always nice to hear from ya, I'm glad we can do some of the work for you, FOR ONCE , as speaking for myself, I have benefited greatly from tailing your plays in the past. I hope we can keep up the good work around here. :00x22

And you are correct, it's going to be nice to have a healthy bankroll at the start of the basesball season. Hopefully your schedule will allow ya to drop by then.

Glad to hear you're doing well, best of luck with future plays and endeavors. :00x1



Now back to the games....
Query help please

I'm trying to find out how the Heat have doen the last 3 years when losing the 1st 2 games of the season like they are tonight vs Charlotte.

Also a team with a 3 game losing streak giving double digits (the Lakers tonight)
Thanks in advance

Is this right for Miami?? :0corn

o:team=Heat and P:streak==-2 and 20071030<=date
SU: 13-8 (2.4)
ATS: 15-6-0 (1.7) avg line: -0.7
O/U: 12-9-0 (-0.7) avg total: 191.7

ANYONE PLEASE?? THANKS.:toast:

 

[BillyBatts]

A couple interesting trends

A couple interesting trends

The Lakers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since April 09, 2009 at home when facing a team they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up


The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since January 22, 2010 when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.

:0corn

 

[barts185]

ANYONE PLEASE?? THANKS.:toast:

I'm not sure that P: works with the streak, I get different results then when I do it this way. Also, o: means that the other team is the Heat. If you want to do it that way, use t:, I just leave it out unless I want the other team. Include the season check to make sure that you are getting the losses from the same season, otherwise it will include losses from prior years. Lastly, if the streak parameter does work, you'd need to use <=-2 or it will mean that they will have had to have won the time when they played 3 games ago.

team=Heat and P:L and PP:L and P:season=season and PP:season=season and season>=2007

SU: 8-18 (-7.7)
ATS: 16-9-1 (1.0) avg line: 8.6
O/U: 13-13-0 (-2.5) avg total: 188.2

 

[40seven]

Tonight

Tonight

Here are my leans so far


Magic

Celtics

Heat

PTB

Laker's

 

[BillyBatts]

Agree

Agree

Here are my leans so far


Magic

Celtics

Heat

PTB

Laker's

Really liking the Celts buddy. :toast:

Updated leans
Celts +2
Bobs-Heat under 182.5 (dogfight for last playoff spot)
Wizz +4
Sac-Port over 198.....
Magic under 201
:0corn

 

[barts185]

A team with a 3 game (or longer) losing streak, giving double digits, since 2007

p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and line<=-10 and season>=2007

SU: 22-1 (14.3)
ATS: 8-10-5 (1.4) avg line: -12.9
O/U: 10-12-1 (-3.5) avg total: 202.1


If you want EXACTLY a 3 game losing streak

p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and pppp:W and line<=-10 and season>=2007

SU: 16-1 (11.6)
ATS: 4-8-5 (-0.9) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 8-8-1 (0.3) avg total: 201.6



using the streak parameters, these would be

3 game or longer losing streak
streak<=-3 and line<=-10 and season>=2007

exactly 3 game losing streak
streak=-3 and line<=-10 and season>=2007


Also, as I said, if you don't include a season check, these will include games where a team lost the last game of 1 season and the first 2 games of the next season.

ppp:season=season

It doesn't change either of these results.

 

[BillyBatts]

You're the man!!

You're the man!!

Thanks Bart, can always count on you. Would you mind doing that Heat query plaese? Last 3 years playing an opponent the 3rd time after 2 SU losses in the same year? Thanks.

 

[barts185]

Thanks Bart, can always count on you. Would you mind doing that Heat query plaese? Last 3 years playing an opponent the 3rd time after 2 SU losses in the same year? Thanks.

Always glad to help when I'm around.

look up a couple of posts - did that one first

 

[BillyBatts]

Here are my leans so far


Magic

Celtics

Heat

PTB

Laker's

Trail Blazers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game :scared

 

[BillyBatts]

Duh

Duh

Always glad to help when I'm around.

look up a couple of posts - did that one first

Thanks man. I will defintely, pass on the Bobs tonight after seeing that

 

[barts185]

Trail Blazers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game :scared

NOT true.

team=Trailblazers and points>=100 and season=2009

I thought you might mean when the teams previously met, but that's not true either.

team=Trailblazers and Points>=100 and P:season=season and season=2009

 

[cubboy]

ax

ax

good to hear from you buddy...have you heard from our buddy joe schmoe from across the way

 

[JBrilman]

the easiest part of the season is coming...PLAYOFFS.

Always nice to see you around pal and hope all is well!!

I already made note of my success in the playoffs last year and have trimmed my plays to mostly action only and college bball tourneys (man some of these lines are soft) right now.

With playoffs and baseball right around the corner no need to give any back right now!!

BOL tonight fellas no plays for me.

 

[BillyBatts]

NOT true.

team=Trailblazers and points>=100 and season=2009

I thought you might mean when the teams previously met, but that's not true either.

team=Trailblazers and Points>=100 and P:season=season and season=2009

Hmmmm......it's on trends page across the way. Sorry for the misinfo :sadwave:


SOMEONE PLEASE LOOK AT THE MAGIC-CLIPS TOTAL.:director:

Opened at 199 and has jumped as high as 201.5. Magic 8 out of last 10 have went under
They are 7-27 O/U one one day rest:scared
LAC 3-7 on 2 days rest.

Last game the total was set at 191.5 and went WAY under. Plus these....
Under is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Under is 10-2 in Magic last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 5-1 in Magic last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 17-4 in Magic last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Under is 21-6 in Magic last 27 games as a favorite.
Under is 22-7 in Magic last 29 overall.
Under is 6-2 in Magic last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater


WHAT IN SAM HELL IS GOING ON HERE??:shrug:

 

[barts185]

Hmmmm......it's on trends page across the way. Sorry for the misinfo :sadwave:


SOMEONE PLEASE LOOK AT THE MAGIC-CLIPS TOTAL.:director:

Opened at 199 and has jumped as high as 201.5. Magic 8 out of last 10 have went under
They are 7-27 O/U one one day rest:scared
LAC 3-7 on 2 days rest.

Last game the total was set at 191.5 and went WAY under. Plus these....
Under is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Under is 10-2 in Magic last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 5-1 in Magic last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 17-4 in Magic last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Under is 21-6 in Magic last 27 games as a favorite.
Under is 22-7 in Magic last 29 overall.
Under is 6-2 in Magic last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater


WHAT IN SAM HELL IS GOING ON HERE??:shrug:

What's going on here is that I like the under

 

[BillyBatts]

I AGREE

I AGREE

What's going on here is that I like the under

Only thing I can see is last 5 games LAC giving up

107.8 pts/game

While Magic have been scoring 106.4 in last 5


So....if Magic score 107 and give the 11 point spread would make Clips score 96


107-96 = 203 pts...:violin: