NBA TUESDAY 112409-Early Thoughts and value hunting

[Slicer]

Wanted to start off the thread for Tuesday as I'm gonna be slammed most of the day.

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY (3-1): Illinois -13.5 vs Wofford

Too much size, speed, talent discrepancy in this game for anything less than -20, locking in early line expect 15.5-16.5 by gametime.


NBA TUESDAY:

Toronto -5 vs Indiana. Toronto has won 4 of 5 @ home in this series and covered all 4 wins. Coming off a loss and with a day's rest I look for them to rebound tonight. Indiana coming off a horrible loss @ Charlotte, don't see much bounceback in this team.

1/4 unit play NBA

 

[easterntimezone]

Think that the Lakers can't be bothered to belittle and humiliate the Knicks tomorrow; coast and know that the win is almost guaranteed; no outright exertion/overly anxious/focused effort - Knicks aren't even in the realm of being pretenders, let alone spirited young and upcoming contenders... Lakers not looking to make a statement here against an undermanned and mediocre locomotive that has no hope of scaling even a small incline hill.

Current public play is on the Knicks - this would be a square wager if it stands; interested to see how the %ages look after the West Coast chimes in tomorrow.

 

[BIGWave]

Wanted to start off the thread for Tuesday as I'm gonna be slammed most of the day.

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY (3-1): Illinois -13.5 vs Wofford

Too much size, speed, talent discrepancy in this game for anything less than -20, locking in early line expect 15.5-16.5 by gametime.


NBA TUESDAY:

Toronto -5 vs Indiana. Toronto has won 4 of 5 @ home in this series and covered all 4 wins. Coming off a loss and with a day's rest I look for them to rebound tonight. Indiana coming off a horrible loss @ Charlotte, don't see much bounceback in this team.

1/4 unit play NBA

Slicer,

This would be my initial lean in this game as well. I have been seeing my home team well lately, playing them -3 versus MIA and against them on Sunday versus the more talented ORL team (when will Toronto fans learn to stop booing Vince whenever he comes to town - he goes off and almost single handedly beats them)
.
The only thing I like to wait on is the public percentages.

But Toronto has finished a long stretch of games against some talented competition and the talk is about how much they must win the next weeks worth of games against "lesser" competition. Bosh, of course, says all games are must wins, but we all know some are more easily expected to win than others

GLTU :0corn .

 

[Joe_Vienna]

leans so far

Knicks @ Lakers U209.5
Nets @ Nuggets U203

 

[axp59]

I thought I was early with this one but...

[502] TORONTO -5 (action)​

​

BOL ​

​

waiting on more numbers​

 

[Ools]

Think that the Lakers can't be bothered to belittle and humiliate the Knicks tomorrow; coast and know that the win is almost guaranteed; no outright exertion/overly anxious/focused effort - Knicks aren't even in the realm of being pretenders, let alone spirited young and upcoming contenders... Lakers not looking to make a statement here against an undermanned and mediocre locomotive that has no hope of scaling even a small incline hill.

Current public play is on the Knicks - this would be a square wager if it stands; interested to see how the %ages look after the West Coast chimes in tomorrow.

I think the lakers could win by 13.5 while sleepwalking, love your reasoning - would like closer to 16, but i just don't think i can feel comfortable that the knicks can stay that close.

 

[40seven]

A new day

A new day

It is nice to wake up early and go into work and get a play like this.

It seemed we never got a single top POD yesterday, in fact i just watched football!

Now today I see the Toronto play as obvious POD.

So others that look interesting.

The Knicks + in LA. This will not be a popular play but if the line holds below 15 and the public slams the lakers it might be a great play.

Next, same logic Nuggets Under! I think this number will rise 3 or 4 points and the Under will look sweet.

And if not i will enjoy 50 on the Raptors

 

[barts185]

locked PHI +3 small play

Get it while it lasts, I doubt this line stays at 3.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[Eagle123]

UTAH U197

UTAH have injury problem, may play denfenive agaist the young player of OKC

Any comments guys?

 

[compita_luigi]

toronto play

toronto play

this is like the last night play.. the under of sac.. everybody was on this under and they were wrong.. this time everybody across the street on toronto.. i hope this time everybody is correct, so we can cash.. but i really think this will be tighter than it looks

 

[40seven]

I totally agree

I totally agree

this is like the last night play.. the under of sac.. everybody was on this under and they were wrong.. this time everybody across the street on toronto.. i hope this time everybody is correct, so we can cash.. but i really think this will be tighter than it looks

Yes Sir

 

[BIGWave]

Yah - I'm not liking the lack of any line move with everyone in love with this scrappy home team. Maybe overthinking it, but..........

The huge lines that the public is loving against the good home teams have to be of some interest. Set-up lines to me. Teams that have historically been blown out versus these powerful home teams.

And the OVER in the Toronto game is on my radar now as it initially moved down to 213 last night and now has risen back to 215 with the majority hitting the under of this big number. Ax had us on the TO / DEN over that hit so easily, then on POR/TO under that also went over easily. This TO team has no idea what defense is...............I always laugh in the 4th when the crowd chants DE-FENSE, as they attempt to keep the visitors under 120 points..............
They love to score and will shoot from anywhere and the opposition always has ample opportunity to shoot and score as well. They simply try to outscore the opposition - ala Phoenix.

Lean OVER in this one. Nervous about TO-5. :shrug:

 

[40seven]

Big wave i agree with you BUT

Big wave i agree with you BUT

Indy has only played 4 road games they are 2-2. The 2 wins were the Knicks and the Nets, the other 2 were large losses that did not cover, while the Raptors have only lost and not covered at home twice this year to the Magic. None of the home wins were by less than 7.

There is alot of value in this play the only thing off is the line has not moved and the Public loves them.

I cannot wait til 930 when this bad boy will be over and we will know.

Interesting someone mentioned the 76ers +3....

 

[Joe_Vienna]

leans so far

Knicks @ Lakers U209.5
Nets @ Nuggets U203

Locked

Knicks @ Lakers U212.5 :00hour

only play today

BOLTA :director:
Joe

 

[Slicer]

I know alot of folks like to look at public %'s and the like. This is why the majority of the time with the exception of Ax's Unders I don't look at public %'s and put in my bets overnight.

I bet based on the team's strength/weakness and stat basis, I leave the public, fading paid cappers and the like out of it.

The only thing that matters is 1 person's analysis of the game and that is you. No other factors influence the outcome of the game, just cause the whole world is on them doesn't make it a winner or loser in my opinion.

 

[gocmar]

I know alot of folks like to look at public %'s and the like. This is why the majority of the time with the exception of Ax's Unders I don't look at public %'s and put in my bets overnight.

I bet based on the team's strength/weakness and stat basis, I leave the public, fading paid cappers and the like out of it.

The only thing that matters is 1 person's analysis of the game and that is you. No other factors influence the outcome of the game, just cause the whole world is on them doesn't make it a winner or loser in my opinion.

Exactly! Agree with this 102.5% But when we see in some cases that 60% on publick is on some outcome that DON"T means that more money are placed on that outcome because maybe in that 40% are bettors which bet big! And then line goes in oposite direction of publick outcome :director:

 

[softballmaniac]

BIGWave, is that you across the street with that bombshell for an avatar? If so, i ran across a couple interesting threads you made comments in. Glad i found you over there, to find them. Nice imformation...BOL my friend...

 

[BobB]

where is across the street?

 

[softballmaniac]

where is across the street?

Don't know how to go about this question, for the reason of not being able to mention it, due to the rules of the forum. Anyone on the board that might be able to help this gentleman???

 

[BIGWave]

BIGWave, is that you across the street with that bombshell for an avatar? If so, i ran across a couple interesting threads you made comments in. Glad i found you over there, to find them. Nice imformation...BOL my friend...

Yes - that's me with the sunloving avatar over there at BLANKETS. :sadwave: