NBA TUESDAY 112409-Early Thoughts and value hunting

[40seven]

My Twist

My Twist

I know alot of folks like to look at public %'s and the like. This is why the majority of the time with the exception of Ax's Unders I don't look at public %'s and put in my bets overnight.

I bet based on the team's strength/weakness and stat basis, I leave the public, fading paid cappers and the like out of it.

The only thing that matters is 1 person's analysis of the game and that is you. No other factors influence the outcome of the game, just cause the whole world is on them doesn't make it a winner or loser in my opinion.

When I try to cap a game (the art that I have struggled with for years and why i listen so intently to each of you all) I look for others smarter with my view.

Tonight Toronto I know we are on the right side But!

If I were only playing one game I would look for one that had less public play because that to me adds to the value.

Last point I would not tail anyone here if I believed they were wrong, no one should. If you cap Indy to cover or win you should like the play more....

 

[softballmaniac]

Yes - that's me with the sunloving avatar over there at BLANKETS. :sadwave:

LOL well put my friend. I hope that he can read between the lines with that. Any chance that you would enlighten this thread by bringing her to OUR home??? She certainly brought a smile to MY face. BOL tonight BWD and the rest of my brothers here.

 

[BobB]

guys I've been a member over there for 5 years and never once looked at the forum, just played the contests,etc. Wow how was I missing that?!!

 

[barts185]

I know veteran's day was last week, but anyone wanting to hear an amazing rendition of the star spangled banner shoud go to that tube place and type in

the star spangled banner like you've never heard it

sung by 5 young girls.

Thanks again to all our vets

 

[softballmaniac]

guys I've been a member over there for 5 years and never once looked at the forum, just played the contests,etc. Wow how was I missing that?!!

Glad you were able to pick up on BWD's response. If you can get through the childish behavior, it can be an asset (spell check please lol). Night and day, compared to MJ's. Nothing but knowledge and respect with everyone in Ax and company's thread here. GL Bob :mj06:

 

[BIGWave]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, TO travelling to CHAR and are 2 point dogs. I like CHAR right now. They play well at home - 4-2 versus 0-7 on the road. Very similar to TO - 4-2 at home versus 2-6 away.

CHAR was beat at home by POR - close game - and ORL, who looked after TO as well. They have beaten NJ, ATL, IND......

We'll see how tonight rolls out, but I like CHAR to win this one right now. :0corn

 

[softballmaniac]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, TO travelling to CHAR and are 2 point dogs. I like CHAR right now. They play well at home - 4-2 versus 0-7 on the road. Very similar to TO - 4-2 at home versus 2-6 away.

CHAR was beat at home by POR - close game - and ORL, who looked after TO as well. They have beaten NJ, ATL, IND......

We'll see how tonight rolls out, but I like CHAR to win this one right now. :0corn

That will work BWD. Very nice. LOL.. If someone can tell me how to cut and paste a pix from my e-mail to get it as an avatar, i can enlighten this thread as well. I'm pretty computer illiterate. Sorry for the clutter fellas.

 

[grindstone]

It is nice to wake up early and go into work and get a play like this.

It seemed we never got a single top POD yesterday, in fact i just watched football!

Now today I see the Toronto play as obvious POD.

So others that look interesting.

The Knicks + in LA. This will not be a popular play but if the line holds below 15 and the public slams the lakers it might be a great play.

Next, same logic Nuggets Under! I think this number will rise 3 or 4 points and the Under will look sweet.

And if not i will enjoy 50 on the Raptors

Hey 40seven here is something interesting I found about the lakers

Last season when the Lakers played consecutive home games on 1 day rest they were 4-10 ATS...They were also 4-8 ATS when they were favored between 12-14 points last season.

Definitely keeping my eyes open for this game NYK + 14

GL

 

[40seven]

New news to me

New news to me

Hey 40seven here is something interesting I found about the lakers

Last season when the Lakers played consecutive home games on 1 day rest they were 4-10 ATS...They were also 4-8 ATS when they were favored between 12-14 points last season.

Definitely keeping my eyes open for this game NYK + 14

GL

I believe the Knicks and the Nets are John Morrison plays. Those guys can make crazy plays and really screw up lines with a lot of point buying.

Just be careful on those plays to get a goof line.

 

[40seven]

Ax`

Ax`

Missed your charts today those have been great.

Gone for today.

Blessings to all

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

1-1 last night, winning on Clips under and losing on the Queens. Sorry I haven't been able to input lately guys, just been really busy with work before the Holidays.


Locked these in a bit ago

Wizzards -3
Nuggets under 203


Good luck tonight gents.:00x1

 

[grindstone]

Here is what I adlock:

Tor - 5
Phil + 3


Also looking at but not locked up yet
NYK + 14
Denv - 13.5
Utah - 8

 

[Joe_Vienna]

action plays

Knicks +15
Pacers +5.5

 

[BIGWave]

WASH owner died a few hours ago...........
Wonder how that will affect the players tonight??

 

[shamrock]

ahhh Unless there's is a issue of them not getting paid, I doubt it will effect agent 0 and the crew at all.

 

[BIGWave]

Looking ahead to tomorrow, TO travelling to CHAR and are 2 point dogs. I like CHAR right now. They play well at home - 4-2 versus 0-7 on the road. Very similar to TO - 4-2 at home versus 2-6 away.

CHAR was beat at home by POR - close game - and ORL, who looked after TO as well. They have beaten NJ, ATL, IND......

We'll see how tonight rolls out, but I like CHAR to win this one right now. :0corn

Alternately..............TO loses tonight and everyone jumps on the short line tomorrow and I'll have to look at something else...............

Almost gametime folks - enjoy.

 

[grindstone]

Heads up boys public pounding Wash at 72% and the line drops 1/2 pt. Liking Phil even more

 

[Randercity]

A Teaser for starters for me...

A Teaser for starters for me...

I agree with the board here on TORONTO, but I'm not risking the spread, I'm going to tease them down to -.5 so all I have to do is win. My strategy is to play this early game to the latest game, the LAKERS and set myself up for a huge middle possibility at HT. I think NYK will struggle in the FH as they have against so many good teams this year, and then make a huge comeback in the 2H as they have many times. Based on that, I would love to take the KNICKS in my teaser +18, but like last night, if the LAKERS are winning huge at the half, I can't get the value out of them playing LAKERS at PICKEM if they are already up by 15 or so.... too risky. I would then have LA -15 NYK +18.5 so only 3 middle points, not enough. I'm going with the Under on the teaser, and plan on going OVER for the 2H. Here's why: IF NYK are struggling early, they will play their starters a lot in the 2H and will continue to score. The LAKERS 2nd Unit is nearly as good as the NYK starters so they will score as well. LA's bench likes to play hustle defense and run with Bynum or ODOM as the only big on the floor. Fits NY perfectly, so a backdoor cover by NY is definitely possible. BUT, if we get to half at about 100, we'll get a 2H number of 106 and will now have OVER 206 and UNDER 217 for two push numbers and TEN SWEEP (middle) numbers!

Of course.... RAPTORS still can't go extinct on me, or all my planning goes down the tubes... :sadwave: However, I can alway check the HT line in TOR and hedge then as well, but that gets to be way way confusing for you all. I'll probably do it and post it in my HT Thread though...

TORONTO -.5 & LAKERS Under 217

4.5 PT Teaser **** QUAD PLAY ***

Playing this as a FOUR UNIT so I can play a DOUBLE PLAY at HT of TOR (if necessary) and have FOUR UNITS to use at HT of LAKERS game if TOR covers. Need to do something to change it up!

 

[BIGWave]

IND / TO OVER 215 adlock:
PHIL / WASH U198 adlock:
TO+5.5 adlock:
PHIL+3 adlock:

Action.

 

[Randercity]

in regards to "like last night"

in regards to "like last night"

I'm referring to the BULLS / PORTLAND game that Blazers led by 15 and the line came out a PICK.

just to be clear, I know the LAKERS didn't play!