ncaa football: saturday october 15th ......

[gman2]

some mac notes for the upcoming weekend are below. per soul train, i need to concentrate more on my mac capping, and frankly he's right. hitting 80+% in the conference this year is mediocre at best. hopefully some can benefit from whats below.

kent state should have starting quartback michael machen back for this game. the bye week came at a perfect time for the flashes. he was hurt late in the ohio game on september 24th, then missed the next week's game at eastern michigan. but the bye week last week allowed him some extra time to recover (from what was a strained mcl) and should be ok for saturday

buffalo qb drew willy, a true freshman, came down to earth a bit against akron. after going 30/38 for 288 yds and 2 TDs in his first career start against western michigan 2 weeks ago, he was just 12/25 for 71 yards and an interception and sacked 5 times against the zips.

although willy was mediocre last week, luke getsy wasnt much better for akron (12/32 for 145 yds). it should come as no surprise that the final of the ub/akron game was just 13-7 because it was an ugly afternoon for both teams. buffalo was up 7-0 in the 4th quarter but couldnt hold on for their first win.

bowling green outgained ohio university 573-239 in total offense and held a massive 31-10 first down edge in their 38-14 win. special teams mistakes kept bg from winning by 30+. the falcons fumbled the opening kickoff inside their 10 yard line, they missed a 27-yard field goal, and they had a punt blocked for a touchdown. when the bowling green offense was on the field, they were rarely stopped.

one encouraging sign for bowling green: their run defense was outstanding against ohio. the falcons came in with the nations worst rushing defense but kept the OU power rushing attack in check -- just 33 carries for 68 yards.

toledo rushed for 295 yards on 41 carries against eastern michigan. three different running backs (dawson, parmele, broussard) scored touchdowns for the rockets.

emu quarterback matt bohnet suffered a severe ankle contusion in the first half of the toledo game but expects to play against northern illinois this week. if something changes, his backup is tyler jones, a redshirt freshman who has seen some spot-duty this season. bohnet is much more of a passing threat in emu's spread offense, whereas jones is a dangerous run threat but a little green in the passing game.

even though western michigan doesnt play this week, keep this stored away for upcoming weeks -- true freshman tim hiller will be making his first career start next weekend against bowling green. the timing could probably be a little better, because wmu is returning to the site of last years 52-0 massacre that could have been A LOT worse if bowling green didnt completely call the dogs off when they were up 49-0 at halftime. hiller was impressive against ball state last week when he split time with senior robbie haas. but throwing this kid to the wolves against bowling green doesnt make a whole lot of sense, considering the broncos have kent state, eastern michigan, and central michigan in the weeks following the bg game -- any of which would be a more logical place to insert a true freshman.

 

[taoist]

...excellent use of the return key, gman!!! :mj07: :mj07:


...not too shabby on capping the mac either.

 

[hm23]

How much will Bohnet's injury restrict his play? He really had a poor game v. Toledo.

I am curious about Kent State. Machen is a drop-back passer...so I am thinking his recovery from injury isn't going to way heavily on the outcome of this game. Is there any hope for the Golden Flashes' run attack?

Navy managed to contain AFA's run game in the 4thQ and QB Owens showed some ability to get the ball to their lone playmaker at WR - Tomlinson.

I don't think much of the Midshipmen's D but even less of KSU's.

Thanks, gman.

 

[Sun Tzu]

What about Monmouth-Wagner?

 

[gardenweasel]

excellent read....and easy on the eyes,i might add....lol

always interesting to get a look "inside the stats"....

thanks...

 

[gman2]

hm23:

thats something i really couldnt tell you. i caught the bowling green/ohio game in person last week, and the toledo/emich game was going on across town at the same time, so i didnt get a chance to follow what took place in that game. im no doctor, but i thought a severe ankle contusion would be more serious than what emu is making it out to be. bohnet isnt practicing right now, but he expects to play on saturday. so its kinda a day-to-day thing. jones is a terrific athlete and could add some life to their running game that could despetarely use it, but bohnet is far more consistent passing the ball.

as for machen, youre correct in that his role wont matter if kents defense doesnt stop navy. but the fact that machen is back (or at least expected to be back) in the lineup is a very big deal. i really think this kid is going to be a terrific quarterback. he's got a nfl frame and a rocket arm. hes thrown a lot of interceptions this year but ill cut him some slack because hes facing division 1 defenses for the first time in awhile after taking a hiatus to play minor league baseball. i think kent could really be one of those teams that is going to be tough down the stretch, even though theyre miserable now. as for the kent running game, no -- there is no hope, lol. martin DESPERATELY needs to recruit a top notch running back. if the flashes could get a running game, they could seriously have one of the best offenses in the mac because machen can be big-time, and his receivers are excellent. but no matter how good your passing game is, if teams know they dont even have to consider respecting the run, theyll shut you down after awhile.

 

[gman2]

running back pj pope is sitting this game out for bowling green as well. its a big deal because he is a major weapon for them, however they dont have all that big a dropoff when they go to bj lane because lane has just as much experience and is a solid player in his own right. but pope's been battling a chronic ankle sprain all year (believe the initial sprain happened in the wisconsin game) and this would be a logical spot to try and rest him because the falcons certainly have bigger fish to fry than buffalo. it would take the world tilting off its axis for bowling green to find themselves in a true battle on saturday, but stranger things have happened. weather is normally the great equalizer in buffalo, especially with the wind. but bowling green might have tougher winds than buffalo at this time of year, so its nothing the falcons arent used to. on an unrelated note, this game is omar jacobs' first game against one of the schools that actually had a legit shot of landing him as a recruit. gotta wonder if jacobs would be on the map if he were stuck in new york with that supporting cast. in the understatement of the year -- he made the right choice.

 

[Hokie Fan]

G man when will you be posting your plays??
Hunkering down for hoops soon I hope..
Good Luck..

 

[Superbear]

What about Monmouth-Wagner?

:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie

 

[gman2]

ohio at central michigan

despite the relatively low total, central michigan has an offense that is built to score quickly. ohio's defense can be very good at times, and very mediocre at other times last week they tried to play field position football with bowling green and were blown out. last week's central michigan/army game was played in a torrential downpour so cmu will welcome any sort of improved weather this weekend. without question, central michigan is the most improved team in the mac this year and will soon be a legit contender, however, theyre still "learning how to win" and will probably be a better underdog than chalk for the remainder of the year. thats not to say they wont win by 10+ against ohio. theyre fully capable of it, especially with how well sneed has been running the ball for them. but theyre still a young team capable of a clunker.


akron at miami

akron is 3-2, but they've got a ways to go before they can contend in the mac east with this team. zips have a good home win over northern illinois, but otherwise, wins over middle tennessee and buffalo (by 7 and 6 points) leave a lot to be desired. akron's struggle at buffalo wasn't a huge surprise, because the zips are a pass-first, pass-second, pass-third team. theyre trying to get the ground game going, but its not there this year. getsy is just dropping back and passing on the majority of downs. against central michigan two weeks ago, he threw the ball 57 times. the winds in buffalo really wreaked havoc last week, and getsy was just 12/32. miami has far more balance and is capable of blowing akron out, however, the zips have enough firepower where theyre never out of a game. but akron has allowed 30+ pts to miami in every meeting the last four years so they'd be wise to shore up the defense. that said, this is one of akron's better defense units, so you never know. but miami, despite their sub-.500 record, has a far better team than akron.

bowling green at buffalo

falcons can name the score, but you wonder if they will be motivated enough to run it up. no big games loom on the bg schedule, so they could very well hammer the bulls. but there is something about playing in buffalo that just screws with teams. some of it could be the travel (with the majority of the mac being ohio/michigan) and this is one of the longer road trips for most teams. some of it is the weather at this time of year - especially the swirling winds. and some of it could be that its impossible to get up for playing in front of 1,000 people. as mentioned earlier, if game conditions end up being very windy, bowling green is used to it because few teams in the country have more difficult winds to deal with than bowling green. bowling green's defense was outstanding last week, albeit against a pedestrian ohio offense. but the falcons made ball state look good a few weeks ago, so the improvement was encouraging. bg also dinged up in the backfield with pope sitting this game out. still, it would take a minor miracle for buffalo to keep this game close enough to scare bowling green. whats scary is that bowling green made a lot of mistakes last week and still scored 38 points and had nearly 600 yards on ohio. if buffalo has a string of 3-and-outs, bg will score 21 points in a 10:00 stretch. just a tough game to cap.

 

[gman2]

What about Monmouth-Wagner?

monmouth laying a cool (-22.5) over wagner
at 5dimes.com, lmao

 

[cameroncrazie]

gman - Haven't been on the board in a while and I used to follow your picks in year's past. Do you still post your MAC picks or do you just post a writeup of the games with your analysis. Thanks in advance.

 

[GOAT]

You are on the money Machen will be there. By the way you got this before me and i talk to alot of people from kent no insight anything. but sometimes a insight on the game good luck!!

 

[AR182]

gman,

good stuff as usual...

btw, i'm leaning to navy but they also have a rather poor defense....

good luck this week.

 

[Smitty]

gman, thank you for your work.

 

[gman2]

cameron:
have decided to branch off with my own project and website, however ive still been doing mac previews and notes the entire season here.

toledo at ball state

some very big conflicting angles here:
toledo has had a world of trouble with ball state in recent years. and of course, rosters and dynamics change, but toledo has been awfully good the last half-decade and these are their recent games in muncie:

toledo lost outright in 1997 in muncie
toledo won 23-10 in 1999
toledo lost outright there in 2001
toledo lost outright there (and were smashed) 38-14 in 2003.

so why the trouble? good question. similar to buffalo, its a bit of an uninspiring place to play. the toledo commentators were actually talking about it on their postgame show from last week. they were right when they said:

you get off the bus in muncie and youre not impressed
you look at the stadium and youre not impressed
you look at the field and youre not impressed
you look at the ball state players and youre not impressed
.... but then they play their [asses] off against you and youre finally impressed.

in a similar situation, ball state took northern illinois to overtime last year despite being nearly a 3 touchdown underdog.

but whats really working against ball state is the five-overtime game from last week (the longest game in mac history)

you cant help but look at the hangover effect that it had on eastern michigan and central michigan after those two played a 61-58 four-overtime game at ford field last year. the following week, both emu and cmu were embarrassed in their respective games by mediocre teams:

eastern michigan went to kent state and lost 69-17
central michigan went to buffalo and lost 36-6

ball state does have the advantage of staying at home for this one. and in a weird sort of way- their suspensions that had decimated the team for the first month of the season might actually help them here because a lot of these guys are only playing their 3rd or 4th game of the year, so they could be a little fresher than normal.

all in all, a very tough game. toledo has far more talent, but theyve had far more talent in all four recent trips to muncie and they have simply been abysmal. but if toledo can get a few quick scores, ball state might mail it in. this is one of those games that could set up nicely for a second half play.

 

[oriole]

I've been trying to find your website for weeks- any clues?

 

[gman2]

oriole:
worst case scenario, email jack and get my email. i dont think he minds, so long as the threads dont get cluttered with service talk. dont want to turn the thread into a 'guess the website' kind of thing and draw the wrong kind of attention. not my style. i gotta think a logical search would work with the right terms, cuz its worked for others. but who knows. but really want to make sure this thread stays on point.

 

[gman2]

ball state / toledo under 61.5

toledo has had their share of high-powered offenses over the last handful of years, but every one seems to be grounded when they've gone to ball state. in their last three games in muncie, the rockets have been held to a very "un"toledo-like average of just 19.0 points per game. rosters change, but toledo has always outclassed bsu in terms of personnel, but that hasnt translated to big numbers on the scoreboard when they play in indiana.

toledo, for the time being, is also content to control the ball with their running game -- which happens to be one of the top 20 in the nation. toledo lost a lot of experience at the receiver position to graduation last year and gradkowski is still trying to find guys he can trust besides steve odom.

ball state still has to deal with being ready to play after the five overtime marathon. eastern michigan scored just 17 points and central michigan scored just 6 points in the week after their four-overtime game last year. the cards have given up a lot of points in their two home games this season, but this really isnt a team that is built to play those kinds of games. and they're certainly not going to get into a shootout with toledo. total is about a touchdown too high. game should land in the low 50s.

 

[bryanz]

who has a line on this one ?