Just a quick note to say that Davis Love & Chris Perry have filed very late entries for this week's event and that makes the 4/1 on offer for the field much more attractive while it stays at that price
NCR Classic
- Thread starter Stanley
- Start date
had a quick look too at the tournaments
canbets market around 175%
Centrebet/Sportodds etc. around 200% overall
that 5.00 price for the field bet
if those guys priced individually at sportodds for example, came to the close to 90% range, so a big difference for that 113 players or however many, whether that is value, not sure, but a big differential
so If you take the best of both halves getting in the 130-140% range, so shopping around will help that
canbets market around 175%
Centrebet/Sportodds etc. around 200% overall
that 5.00 price for the field bet
if those guys priced individually at sportodds for example, came to the close to 90% range, so a big difference for that 113 players or however many, whether that is value, not sure, but a big differential
so If you take the best of both halves getting in the 130-140% range, so shopping around will help that
Best price so far on Woods is +110 with Victor Chandler I doubt if it will get much bigger than that
My thoughts...
The last event of the season for many of this week's field and as the scramble to hold onto a Tour card reaches its frenetic finale, we have a pro-am! It amazes me that with people's careers hanging in the balance, we should close the season with two pro-ams in the last three events. What a distraction for those serious players for whom money is important. Fourteen of this week's field have played in the last 8 straight tournaments; 32 of this week's field have played in 7 of the last 8 tournaments. Neither is by choice, but necessity. It's ridiculous, but that's my beef for this week.
The format is two days of playing with the amateurs over two courses, the Magnolia & Palm courses at the Walt Disney World Resort, with the tougher Magnolia being the venue for the two weekend rounds. As with any pro-am setup, the emphasis is not on accurate driving, wide fairways lessen the embarrassment of the amateurs and reward the longer-hitting pros: the winners in the last four years have been Tiger twice, Duval and Huston. There are also ample amounts of water and sand to make accurate iron play important and with Bermuda grass in use again on the greens, putting specialists of this strain will be particularly favored.
The runaway leader in the Tour-Tips ratings is Tiger Woods and with his record in this event he cannot be opposed. But Butch Harmon admitted during the Presidents Cup that his pupil was struggling with his swing after a five-week layoff and there was evidence enough of it last week to side-step him at even money for this event. Of course, Tiger's entry pushes up the odds of the other players substantially and that creates value with many players capable of beating him this week, they are not just playing for 2nd place.
The three outright plays are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Scott Hoch. Love has the best chance of the three of upstaging Tiger this week and looked in excellent form last week. His recent strokeplay form has been poor, but his confidence seemed to return last week and it was no surprise that he was a late addition to this week's field. He was 2nd on his visit in 1998 and his premium of length over accuracy off the tee will be ideally suited this week.
Verplank is another capable of winning this event. He won the Reno-Tahoe Open a couple of months ago to prove that he was finally winning his battle with diabetes. His accurate rather than powerful driving may not be well rewarded this week, but he finished 17th last year and has been putting together some decent finishes since his long-overdue Tour win. At odds of 50/1, even just a place finish would be very satisfactory.
Of the three, Hoch is the one for whom a place finish rather than outright win is most realistic. He has won 8 times on Tour, but the last was three years ago since when he has had 24 top-10 finishes on the Tour but without winning. Still, it had been an even longer wait for Verplank when he won the Reno-Tahoe! His record in this event is not sensational, like Verplank, his game is more centred around accuracy than length, but this is his 19th straight visit to the World Resort so he obviously likes the event. Putting to one side his missed cut last week, he has been in excellent form of late with three consecutive top-10 finishes and at large odds could make a place finish very profitable.
Outright plays:
Davis Love 25/1 @ Surrey
Scott Verplank 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey
Scott Hoch 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey
All three books pay the place element of the e/w bet on the first 5 places.
The last event of the season for many of this week's field and as the scramble to hold onto a Tour card reaches its frenetic finale, we have a pro-am! It amazes me that with people's careers hanging in the balance, we should close the season with two pro-ams in the last three events. What a distraction for those serious players for whom money is important. Fourteen of this week's field have played in the last 8 straight tournaments; 32 of this week's field have played in 7 of the last 8 tournaments. Neither is by choice, but necessity. It's ridiculous, but that's my beef for this week.
The format is two days of playing with the amateurs over two courses, the Magnolia & Palm courses at the Walt Disney World Resort, with the tougher Magnolia being the venue for the two weekend rounds. As with any pro-am setup, the emphasis is not on accurate driving, wide fairways lessen the embarrassment of the amateurs and reward the longer-hitting pros: the winners in the last four years have been Tiger twice, Duval and Huston. There are also ample amounts of water and sand to make accurate iron play important and with Bermuda grass in use again on the greens, putting specialists of this strain will be particularly favored.
The runaway leader in the Tour-Tips ratings is Tiger Woods and with his record in this event he cannot be opposed. But Butch Harmon admitted during the Presidents Cup that his pupil was struggling with his swing after a five-week layoff and there was evidence enough of it last week to side-step him at even money for this event. Of course, Tiger's entry pushes up the odds of the other players substantially and that creates value with many players capable of beating him this week, they are not just playing for 2nd place.
The three outright plays are Davis Love, Scott Verplank and Scott Hoch. Love has the best chance of the three of upstaging Tiger this week and looked in excellent form last week. His recent strokeplay form has been poor, but his confidence seemed to return last week and it was no surprise that he was a late addition to this week's field. He was 2nd on his visit in 1998 and his premium of length over accuracy off the tee will be ideally suited this week.
Verplank is another capable of winning this event. He won the Reno-Tahoe Open a couple of months ago to prove that he was finally winning his battle with diabetes. His accurate rather than powerful driving may not be well rewarded this week, but he finished 17th last year and has been putting together some decent finishes since his long-overdue Tour win. At odds of 50/1, even just a place finish would be very satisfactory.
Of the three, Hoch is the one for whom a place finish rather than outright win is most realistic. He has won 8 times on Tour, but the last was three years ago since when he has had 24 top-10 finishes on the Tour but without winning. Still, it had been an even longer wait for Verplank when he won the Reno-Tahoe! His record in this event is not sensational, like Verplank, his game is more centred around accuracy than length, but this is his 19th straight visit to the World Resort so he obviously likes the event. Putting to one side his missed cut last week, he has been in excellent form of late with three consecutive top-10 finishes and at large odds could make a place finish very profitable.
Outright plays:
Davis Love 25/1 @ Surrey
Scott Verplank 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey
Scott Hoch 50/1 @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power or Surrey
All three books pay the place element of the e/w bet on the first 5 places.
My selections for the week are again outsiders
Cook 100-1
Mediate 100-1
Faxon 100-1
I would rather have these 3 at 25-1 a place than Woods at even money favourite
Cook 100-1
Mediate 100-1
Faxon 100-1
I would rather have these 3 at 25-1 a place than Woods at even money favourite
I fancy Huston, Janzen and Lickliter as outright plays this week - agree with Stanley that Tiger isn't in top form and the second tier guys have great value this week. So I am going to make a few rare stabs at outrights for small stakes.
GL2U
GL2U
72 hole plays @ Oly all at -110
Hoch over Janzen
K Perry over Triplett
Sluman over Lowery
Unless Hoch throws in clinker he should win this.Perry been helping with kids golf team for 2 months,should feel at home under this format.Also Triplett games has been declining I assume from age and been long season and ditto on Lowery
Hoch over Janzen
K Perry over Triplett
Sluman over Lowery
Unless Hoch throws in clinker he should win this.Perry been helping with kids golf team for 2 months,should feel at home under this format.Also Triplett games has been declining I assume from age and been long season and ditto on Lowery
Appears everyone is is going for winner this week so I will throw hat in the ring and have to side with Buck on Huston @ 37/1 Oly.
Huston thrives on this format finishing 1st and 5th last 2 years and closer look reveals 10th 3rd and 7th place finish at The Hope last 3 years under similiar format.
Also while Sportingbet odds suck I give them credit for sharpest lines maker in business and they have Huston in their top 3 to win.
In addition he loves bermuda greens and with late charge last week,form is not a question.
Huston thrives on this format finishing 1st and 5th last 2 years and closer look reveals 10th 3rd and 7th place finish at The Hope last 3 years under similiar format.
Also while Sportingbet odds suck I give them credit for sharpest lines maker in business and they have Huston in their top 3 to win.
In addition he loves bermuda greens and with late charge last week,form is not a question.
Would agree with everyone on Huston except for one thing - he won last week while playing under constant pain from his back. He was up for last week's event simply because he lives on the course. IMO we may have a backlash this week from his (more) sore back and not being on his home course.
1st rounders 5 dimes
Verplank -120 over Lickliter
Flesch -105 over Weir
Love -120 over VJ
Verplank -110 over Toms
Basically tee scheduling and Palms vs Magnolia
Verplank -120 over Lickliter
Flesch -105 over Weir
Love -120 over VJ
Verplank -110 over Toms
Basically tee scheduling and Palms vs Magnolia
Just one 72-hole play for now:
Vijay Singh to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ WSEX
Was disappointed with Appleby last week and looks one to oppose this week; Singh, for his part, had an embarrassing time on the greens, but these will be much slower and more to his liking. With finishes of 12th and 5th in the last two year's this could be a confidence-restoring event
Back this evening with the rest of the 72-hole and 1st round plays
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 10-25-2000).]
Vijay Singh to beat Stuart Appleby -120 @ WSEX
Was disappointed with Appleby last week and looks one to oppose this week; Singh, for his part, had an embarrassing time on the greens, but these will be much slower and more to his liking. With finishes of 12th and 5th in the last two year's this could be a confidence-restoring event
Back this evening with the rest of the 72-hole and 1st round plays
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 10-25-2000).]
Biggest mismatch I have seen for a long time with firststake.com unfortunately I do not know if they take US$ accounts
Janzen at -110 over wait for it................CASEY MARTIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Janzen at -110 over wait for it................CASEY MARTIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nice find Ian, wish I had that out! I am not sure what you guys are seeing in Hoch and Verplank myself, but I like Ian's Rocco longshot so I'm backing him this week as well.
GL2Us
GL2Us
Surprise!Surprise!
Firststake withdrew the bet as soon as they realised their mistake, which it surely was
Firststake withdrew the bet as soon as they realised their mistake, which it surely was
