Need Serious Help

ClipsPix

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Jul 28, 2002
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I do well. I make a living on games. I'll try to help you tomorrow. You can always send me an e-mail and as soon as I like something so you can get it sooner, I'll send it your way. Remember, nothing is guaranteed but if I can help, I will. I'll post my picks on here, too.
 

jng

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Nov 15, 2000
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BN--

You have received some of the best advice you could ever ask for and, like the rest of us have at one time or another, you'll ignore it.

Now, at the very least, take your best shot. Do not play parlays because you have no chance at all. Parlays are for "fun money" only. Actually, most of us on this board are playing with money we can afford to lose even if we would sure as hell rather win.

And, has been alluded do in previous posts, we have all been where you are now: Lost more money than we could afford to, (not just fun money or non-essential cash, but real live rent money) saw no way out and chased. At your age, this might be the first of many times you make this mistake, but it probably won't be the last.

BUT, you could become a "smart gambler" starting today: Realize that what you've lost on long shot bets (parlays and so on) is gone. Gone. Play smaller and build your bankroll based on solidly researched plays and picks verified or "borrowed" from the best on the board. OR, you could burn the rest of your cash and have no chance at all.

You will not build 200 bucks into 15 dimes in three weeks.

Yes, each of has a wonderfully weird story about a huge parlay coming in or a great night at the craps table, but those are so rare as to be fodder for just that kind of story. They might be real, but they happen so infrequently that no serious gambler makes them part of his daily or yearly strategy.

Looking at the day and the games for a minute:

The Day:

One basic tenet taught to me by the great GTD1389: "Sunday belongs to the man." What does that mean? Books know that by Sunday (or MNF during that season) the vast majority of players are behind and a fair number are buried. We need w-i-n-n-e-r-s and we need them now.

The Yankees -250? The Rams -17 points? The Lakers giving 14 to Golden State? Well, the books know that we're looking for "sure things" and the Yankees, Rams and Lakers are sure things. Aren't they?

No.

Pettitte could lose (people better with numbers can tell you how often a -250 fav has to come in to make money for you) and the Rams can give up a "meaningless" TD and win by 16 or the Lake Show might dog it in garbage time and beat GS by 12.

Sunday belongs to the man. Play carefully, avoid huge favorites and be thrilled to keep all or most of your winnings or resign yourself to a reasonable losing week. Do not chase.

The games:

I have always regarded Glavine as a road warrior. Maybe he gets better sleep in hotel rooms than at home, but Glavine as big home chalk has been a historical money eater.

Colon-200 is absurd. He's not that good.

I'd take skinny Wells as a big dog over Miller any day but especially Sunday.

I do think that Schmidt and the Giants will beat the Dog-ears and a tired-armed Ashby.

The Cubs lose regularly but Clement can pull a gem out of his backside any day. The Cards and Morris carry too high a price for me, today.

Lowe-250 looks good and I might bite at a much lower price. A lower price is not being offered . . .

Cleveland's emotional state is very questionable, they will burn you too many times and Redman is a darn good pitcher. I'm tempted to take Redman and the under here. But putting money on the Tigers on the road is not too certain, either.

"Little One" and the Yanks should win. Or, maybe they won't. This looks like a solid -175 play but a solid pass at -250 on the road even though they're at TB.

CWS almost never win by 1 run and I would play them -1' today. The runline is a much better value on White Sox games this year. The over looks good to me here for one very important reason. These two pitchers have faced off two times already this season generating two Suppan wins of 9-2 and then 8-6 last week. Both games were played at Kaufman but this one is on the Pale Hose's turf and should result in a slugfest with the Sox winning something like 10-7. Since the AS break, Suppan has stunk up the joint with an ERA of 10.50 and he has given up 21 ER, 33 hits and walked 10 batters in just 18 IPs!! Those are amazing numbers. Mitigating against the under is the Royals very low ruin production the past two weeks. They have scored 6 runs during a 5 game losing streak and have lost 22 of theirt last 27 road games. CWS have won the last two games by a total of 19-3. I think that the Royals bats break out a little today against a very familiar pitcher--Ritchie--whose generosity to KC has given them 3 wins, 15 ERs, 25 hits in 18 IPs this year.
Will trade rumors cloud Big Hurt's brain? Not enough to keep him quiet today.
This is my favorite game of the day.
Find validation from the real 'cappers on the board and you might have a couple winners here.

I thnk that Anaheim beats Moyer today and the price looks good. I also like Zito over the Rangers but he's young enough to be getting a little tired this time of year. If anyone can quiet down ARod, it will be Zito who has held him to .217 in 23 at bats. Texas' bats are hot, Oakland's are not. Pass.

Today, I'll play
The Phillies +170
The Bucs +165
The Giants -130
CWS -1' runs +140
CWS/KC over 10' -110


I'll play each of them for one unit. I am down a little for the week but nothing that will dent my BR. I would love to get back to even today, but I will not chase. You shouldn't either. The answer you're looking for is not really there.

Start over today.

Sorry this was so long, but I had to get it off my chest.

GL

J
 

trademaster

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Jul 13, 2002
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Tough break man i feel you I was in the same situation(sp?) has you are in, well maybe not has bad. But listen to Spock and the others they know what there saying. Plus it isn't easy to get all the $$$ you lost that fast take it one bet at a time. Like Spock says risk low and do straight bets.

But if I were you I would do this bet:

Expos-200...one word Colon plus there at home

Indians-135...mostly i bet against the Tigers THEY WILL NOT WIN 6 STRAIGHT

Oakland-205...A's can't afford to lose 5 straight plus Zito is on the mound

or you can ride some very good cappers in here(I did that it made me get on the + side because NHL is were I do the best Baseball isn't my cup of tea but passes the time until October).
 

BadAngel

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Nov 4, 2000
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Like someone said above here, parlays are fun money. I play them too. BUT I play all my game flat. When you hit 3 of 4 or 4of 5 that = $$$$$. You can't build a bankroll with parlays from the start. I know you are in a hole, and it is gonna be tough to get out. I know your gonna play today, but like I said it is gonna be tough to get back up there betting pars. I will give you an example of me yesterday. If you look on my post Sat. I divided them up in three game sets. I chained (3 two team pars) my sets, and had them all flat. I hit 2 of 3 on one, 3 of 3 on another and lost 2of 3 on third when Oak blew up late. Chains you have a little room for error. I use a lot of run totals.(always close to pick) But the real reason is I am hitting about 85% of them, I don't believe it myself. The one I hit had Cin in it as a 9-5 dog. $$$ If you are gonna try something crazy use 3 team chains. 3 pars) The payoff isn't as great but 2 of 3 pay, and like I said I play them all flat. Good luck with whatever you do man.

BadAngel
 

BN1

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Jul 27, 2002
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First of all I'd like to Thank all of you who took the time to post. I can't believe all of you took the time to try and help me out, you don't know how much I appreciate it.

Magic_01: That's right man, it's not over until it's over. I'm not a quiter and I can't stand lossing so just giving up is NOT an option. Best of Luck to you, hopefully we can both turn this around.

ClipsPix: I'll be looking for your post. I'd email you but I don't know how to get your address through this forum (I'm new to this format). I really appreciate the help, Thanks so much and best of luck to you.

jng: Thanks for the lengthy post, it sounds like you really know your stuff and I learned a lot from your post. First, I have a really dumb question...what is a unit? I know that's how you guys gauge all your bets but I have no clue how much that is...as I said before I'm by no means a "gambler". I like your Giants pick but they've so banged up lately...and I like the KC/CWS over but I'm not sure if KC can hit the ball anymore, since they lost Sweeney they've been pretty much dead. Plus I beleive it's a day game and CWS usually plays like shit during home day games. Personaly I kinda like COLON and the expos today but I haven't really done all my reasearch yet. I'm not sure what I'm going to do but Thanks for the adive and I wish you the best of Luck.

trademaster: Thanks for the post. I'm going to try my best to get out of this hole and then I'm probably going to seriously down scale my gambling. Like your picks but I'm not sure about Clev, Tigers have burned me too many times this year and they've been hitting the ball very well as of late. Again, Thanks for the support and Best of Luck to you.

BadAngel: Thanks for the post, I've actually followed some of your picks over the last couple of weeks. I hate playing the totals, I have a pretty shitty record on them myself because I usually just follow the one everyone on the board is going at and more than not it ends up a loser. I'd like to eventually use a system like yours but I really need to build some capital first. Thanks for taking time to reply to me and best of luck!
 

Spock

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Nov 1, 2001
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one unit can be how much $$ u bet on a game ..

to make it clear .. dependin on ur bankroll lets say u have one unit as $10.

Then if u r gonna bet 10 units on one game u would be betting $100 ..

some people vary the units they bet on each game dependin on how confident they are about the game .. some play same one unit or so per game irrespective of the game.

Good luck
Spock
 

cavy1

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May 8, 2002
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Good luck BN1

Let us know what you are playing so we can cheer for you


load up and let er rip

(jr cappers advice- probably why I will always be a jr capper lol)




:director:
 

GENO

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Jan 5, 2002
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JNG

What a wealth of great information. I used to read the wisdom of GTD1389 also on Eddies site. What ever happened to those guys? The page just stopped getting updated.

BN1 he is correct and that is exactly what I thought when I read your plight, 200 into 15K, 3years MAYBE but not 3 months or especially 3 weeks. You will surely flame out trying.

I know that sounds negative to you at this time and point in your life, but we are being realistic trying to help.

Years ago when I first started I flamed out about 4 grand then settled down after looking at my local's new car realizing I helped pay for 20 percent of it.

I stopped calling him and sent $80 (YES $80 one dollar bills laugh if you like) to Intertops (sorry Jack I know they aren't up there) I then played $15 to win $14 till the cows came home ( I was saving .40 cents juice on every play back in those days their software didn't round up or factor in the decimal point) GRIND GRIND GRIND I slowly doubled then tripled my money thru college basketball season working on the plays developing my own skills ( I could not afford any lock of the years from a service playing $15 a play.) As my play size grew I still used 15/14 but 2 or 3 bets to keep the juice discount I discovered. They closed that loophole now but I still focus on the fact that anytime I can reduce the books advantage it is in my best interest.

Bottom line I got to $1600 after about 14 months of long hard work and pulled out $1200. I still have a photocopy of that check somewhere and the reality of that accomplishment set me free.

Free from my own doubts, my own faults, my own weaknesses it started me on the road to a fun, profitable and YES sometimes frustrating part time income.

I am now up on my life as we like to say, I am not rich from this and may never be but I threw away the shovel years ago and stopped digging myself into a hole. You must also or STOP entirely as Art doesn't need another roomate.

I bet the farm once and a large HAIL STORM in 1980 destroyed all of my crops with no insurance. I am no longer a farmer but like goes on I have a lovely family with four kids. I recovered so can you.

Best of luck with the decisions you need to make, you are young and have your entire life ahead of you.
 

mack the knife

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Jul 19, 2002
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This is the advice he gets? To give him your opinions on plays?

Son, you need to stop playing now. You have no idea what you are doing, and you are playing with money that you can't lose.

You have a gambling problem. I suggest checking out gamblers anonymous. I'd also talk to your parents, as difficult as this sounds, and explain your situation and beg for help.

If you did this with cash, you are for certaintly screwed, but if you did this with credit cards, I suggest you talk with an attorney about not paying the debts, disputing the charges.

do not gamble ever again. You have a serious problem.

mack
 

Nick Douglas

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Oct 31, 2000
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Find another way to raise the money. Student loans, borrow from friends, etc. If you are on a cold streak, save your $200 for a week and then come back once you have taken some time off and piggyback a guy like kcwolf, gsp, ndnfan, MadJack or Investment Executive in baseball. That is my advice. GL whatever you decide.
 

THE HITMAN

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Dec 18, 2001
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BN........a unit is the dollar amount on one play. It should stay consistent throughout...like $100. Good Luck to you (you surely will need it). Sorry you got yourself in such a situation. To turn the amount you need with that bankroll and short period of time is the longest of shots. You remind me of myself in my early gambling days.......a bit unknowledgeable as to the "tricks of the trade", having to learn the hard way. I thought "scores" were easy and something to be relied upon. Sometimes that is the only way to learn, as for some, there is no easy way. Gambling is a DISCIPLINED hobby.......if you don't have that, chances are pretty good that you will have nothing. Sure, you need to be lucky, but that is only one ingredient of being successful. But, for you, there is a bright spot.........you are young and it is an opportune time to learn a very very valuable lesson that should never be forgotten if you choose to continue gambling. You went about your initial "investments" the wrong way...........you seem to have realized that fact. Don't throw away what you have learned. I know I have not said anything that hasn't previously been mentioned.........I am just chiming in with some re affirmations. The advice from everyone here is right on the money............ THE best of fortunes to you......THE HITMAN
 

BN1

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Jul 27, 2002
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First of all everything's looking great, thus far....God Bless you Jim Thome! Also God Bless you guys who helped me out with the picks

cavy1: Thanks for the well wishes. I wish you lots of luck on your plays as well.

mack the knife: :thefinger I was going to write a reply to your post like a man but I always wanted to use one of these smilies and I'll probably never get such a good op to use the finger :thefinger Thanks for the support buddy

Nick Douglas: Thanks for the advice. I think I'm going to get some loans if it doesn't work out but I'm going to try my hardest to get it right. Thanks for the heads up on who to piggyback, I was menaingto as who's the best on this board. You seem like you lay some pretty good picks yourself. Thanks for taking the time to post. Best of Luck!

THE HITMAN: Thanks for explaining the Unit term to me, just out of curiousity how much is most people on this board talking about when they bet a unit, are their really any big time players? Thanks for all the advice, I understand now that gambling is much discipline and money management as it is knowing the games your betting on. Best of luck to you on all your plays.
 

BN1

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Jul 27, 2002
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I actually ended up playing the parlays small and doing a couple straight bets...ended the day up over $400 which is pretty good considering I didn't have much to work with. Anyway, Thanks for the help! Best of luck on all your parlays. I'm thinking of playing a 2 teamer with the A's and Seattle today.
 

thelawguy

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Jul 2, 2002
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Hey dude, for whatever its worth...no need to bash guys like Mack. I know you're a little desperate and a little pissed and a little frustrated. We have all been there at one time or another. You want answers...and someone telling u to "stop" and you have a "problem" is not going to work well. I know gambling is a sensitive issue. Ok, so what can I offer? Just this---alot of the guys on this site know a shitload about gambling, money management and picking teams. Listen to the good ones. Money can be made doing this. BUT......it absolutley requires patience, money management and TIME. Trying to get the "big hit" is not smart. The BEST gamblers are usually less than 60% over the course of an entire season. That is the BEST of them. I regularly hit 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 in my parlays, when I play them. In fact last week I lost a 6 teamer when Boston's Urbina gave up 5 runs in the top of the ninth! (I won the other 5!!) That's winning 83% of my games and LOSING money. :mad: :mad:

I am not encouraging you to gamble because I do believe for many it can have a very damaging and negative effect on your life. Any habit becomes a "problem" when you no longer have control over it. In the case of gambling, if you are betting with money that you can not afford to bet with (i.e., you absolutely need it for something else), then it is certainly a "problem." But, I am not going to lecture you....you are a big boy an can make your own choices in your life. Just be open to others' ideas...you might get some helpful insight.

I would be happy to share some of my "stories" with you over my approximate 14 year gambling career---like many, I came close to losing my wife and my life. Unlike many others, I was lucky enough not to.

I started out at age 21 in college. I "knew" alot about sports and it was "easy money." But let me tell ya...if it was that 'easy,' places like Vegas would not keep building palaces of gold.

Don't let gambling take over your life. You will regret it. Good luck and if you need to chat or rant with me, or whatever...by all means. :D
 

TLove

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Jul 11, 2002
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I agree.

There is one sure thing with Gambling.

"It will ruin 9 out of 10 people"

e.g. life, wife, family, and friends.
:nono: :nono:
 

IK

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Mar 13, 2000
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BN1: I don't know you from Adam...so you can take this anyway you wish to......

STOP...right now ...walk away.....you will lose.....there is no way of being kind, or helping you out...you are playing from desperation and that is a ticket to loserville.....STOP...you will lose.

as I said I don't know you from Adam but I'm so sure I'm right(being doing this for a very long time) that I'd take your action...you're betting parlays with no bankroll and need to make big scores?......I'd take your plays in a heartbeat......

STOP...you will lose!
 

gsp

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May 26, 2000
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I've read a lot of good advice the last few days and all is well-meaning. Unless you can cap above 60% consistantly (70% if you are doing favs) you probably won't do well with parlays. There are some serious heavy hitters on this board but I'll let them tell you who they are. My reason for posting this is that I see you are liking Sea today. You might want to read my post today. Good luck
 
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