BN--
You have received some of the best advice you could ever ask for and, like the rest of us have at one time or another, you'll ignore it.
Now, at the very least, take your best shot. Do not play parlays because you have no chance at all. Parlays are for "fun money" only. Actually, most of us on this board are playing with money we can afford to lose even if we would sure as hell rather win.
And, has been alluded do in previous posts, we have all been where you are now: Lost more money than we could afford to, (not just fun money or non-essential cash, but real live rent money) saw no way out and chased. At your age, this might be the first of many times you make this mistake, but it probably won't be the last.
BUT, you could become a "smart gambler" starting today: Realize that what you've lost on long shot bets (parlays and so on) is gone. Gone. Play smaller and build your bankroll based on solidly researched plays and picks verified or "borrowed" from the best on the board. OR, you could burn the rest of your cash and have no chance at all.
You will not build 200 bucks into 15 dimes in three weeks.
Yes, each of has a wonderfully weird story about a huge parlay coming in or a great night at the craps table, but those are so rare as to be fodder for just that kind of story. They might be real, but they happen so infrequently that no serious gambler makes them part of his daily or yearly strategy.
Looking at the day and the games for a minute:
The Day:
One basic tenet taught to me by the great GTD1389: "Sunday belongs to the man." What does that mean? Books know that by Sunday (or MNF during that season) the vast majority of players are behind and a fair number are buried. We need w-i-n-n-e-r-s and we need them now.
The Yankees -250? The Rams -17 points? The Lakers giving 14 to Golden State? Well, the books know that we're looking for "sure things" and the Yankees, Rams and Lakers are sure things. Aren't they?
No.
Pettitte could lose (people better with numbers can tell you how often a -250 fav has to come in to make money for you) and the Rams can give up a "meaningless" TD and win by 16 or the Lake Show might dog it in garbage time and beat GS by 12.
Sunday belongs to the man. Play carefully, avoid huge favorites and be thrilled to keep all or most of your winnings or resign yourself to a reasonable losing week. Do not chase.
The games:
I have always regarded Glavine as a road warrior. Maybe he gets better sleep in hotel rooms than at home, but Glavine as big home chalk has been a historical money eater.
Colon-200 is absurd. He's not that good.
I'd take skinny Wells as a big dog over Miller any day but especially Sunday.
I do think that Schmidt and the Giants will beat the Dog-ears and a tired-armed Ashby.
The Cubs lose regularly but Clement can pull a gem out of his backside any day. The Cards and Morris carry too high a price for me, today.
Lowe-250 looks good and I might bite at a much lower price. A lower price is not being offered . . .
Cleveland's emotional state is very questionable, they will burn you too many times and Redman is a darn good pitcher. I'm tempted to take Redman and the under here. But putting money on the Tigers on the road is not too certain, either.
"Little One" and the Yanks should win. Or, maybe they won't. This looks like a solid -175 play but a solid pass at -250 on the road even though they're at TB.
CWS almost never win by 1 run and I would play them -1' today. The runline is a much better value on White Sox games this year. The over looks good to me here for one very important reason. These two pitchers have faced off two times already this season generating two Suppan wins of 9-2 and then 8-6 last week. Both games were played at Kaufman but this one is on the Pale Hose's turf and should result in a slugfest with the Sox winning something like 10-7. Since the AS break, Suppan has stunk up the joint with an ERA of 10.50 and he has given up 21 ER, 33 hits and walked 10 batters in just 18 IPs!! Those are amazing numbers. Mitigating against the under is the Royals very low ruin production the past two weeks. They have scored 6 runs during a 5 game losing streak and have lost 22 of theirt last 27 road games. CWS have won the last two games by a total of 19-3. I think that the Royals bats break out a little today against a very familiar pitcher--Ritchie--whose generosity to KC has given them 3 wins, 15 ERs, 25 hits in 18 IPs this year.
Will trade rumors cloud Big Hurt's brain? Not enough to keep him quiet today.
This is my favorite game of the day.
Find validation from the real 'cappers on the board and you might have a couple winners here.
I thnk that Anaheim beats Moyer today and the price looks good. I also like Zito over the Rangers but he's young enough to be getting a little tired this time of year. If anyone can quiet down ARod, it will be Zito who has held him to .217 in 23 at bats. Texas' bats are hot, Oakland's are not. Pass.
Today, I'll play
The Phillies +170
The Bucs +165
The Giants -130
CWS -1' runs +140
CWS/KC over 10' -110
I'll play each of them for one unit. I am down a little for the week but nothing that will dent my BR. I would love to get back to even today, but I will not chase. You shouldn't either. The answer you're looking for is not really there.
Start over today.
Sorry this was so long, but I had to get it off my chest.
GL
J