Good Morning Fellers!
Win Bets:
0.5* Kyle Busch @ 10/1
0.5* Tony Stewart @ 18/1
0.5* Jamie McMurray @ 35/1
0.5* Carl Edwards @ 50/1
Matchups:
1* Jeff Gordon +115 over Brad Keselowski
1* Jimmie Johnson +115 over Brad Keselowski
1* Kyle Busch +115 over Denny Hamlin
Might have more as they roll out later this morning.
I guess my style for NASCAR racing is that I like to rank the drivers after all the practice info and such is gathered and then bet them to win based off their odds. Not exactly who I think has the best car, but the car/driver with the best value. While I lose a lot more races than I win - the ones I do win usually make up for way more than the losses will.
Thus you'll see me taking three or four at some long odds. and generally one driver at 10/1 or less. If the value is there then I'll probably be on it.
Not disagreeing with anyone's style or suggesting my style is correct, but it's just how I do my gambling.
So that being said away we go..................
Busch is hit or miss here at Loudon?as he is at most tracks?so I had to assume some risk by picking him this weekend. After first practice and qualifying, my hands down favorite for the Camping World RV Sales 301 was Kyle Busch. He finished 2nd here in both races last season and will be starting on the pole this Sunday. However his #18 team lost the car between then and Saturday morning and spent both practice sessions trying to get it back to where it should be. Once Happy Hour rolled around, though, this team got the car more to Kyle?s liking and he was 8th on the speed chart and ranked there in ten-lap average as well. I really like that Kyle has the first pit stall on Sunday, and starting out front will really help him.
Whenever ?Smoke? is fast off the truck, you should take notice. He went out and qualified 4th on Friday, and if you just went off of that, it?d be hard not to consider Tony a threat for the win on Sunday. He?s had some bad luck here at Loudon as of late, specifically regarding fuel mileage. Stewart was a lot better in the morning on Saturday (5th in ten-lap average) than he was in the afternoon during Happy Hour (22nd on that chart). It's not all that surprising to see Smoke's team hold back in the final practice however. I've seen him when his practice times have looked 20th or so several times. Stewart has finished 12th or better in four of the last five New Hampshire races and should make it five of six come Sunday. His career average finish of 11.9 here is good enough for 4th-best in the series.
Jamie McMurray is one of those ?sleepers,? mid-tier drivers that will burn you. However the reward of hitting a few races with the #1 car has been worth the heat from the losses. I?m starting to think that McMurray has something figured out here at Loudon. He ended up 12th in this event one year ago and in the second visit to ?The Magic Mile? in 2012, Jamie was 5th when the checkers flew. He started 11th and 23rd in those two events, respectively. Flash-forward to 2014 and McMurray will roll off the grid in 5th for Sunday?s Camping World RV Sales 301 and was impressive in both practice sessions on Saturday, posting the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and winding up 6th on that chart in Happy Hour. Looking back at Phoenix in March (another flat track), the #1 team posted a top 10 result in that race, so that?s encouraging.
I like Cousin Carl more on tracks that require better handling as opposed to a stronger engine. The story over the years has always been that Roush-Fenway organization is strongest on the cookie cutter race tracks and then tends to struggle a bit on the smaller venues. We?re seeing a shift, and it has been evident with Carl Edwards for the last year-and-a-half. On Friday, Edwards went out and qualified 14th for Sunday?s Camping World RV Sales 301, which isn?t great by any means but it is good for this team, as qualifying has been their achilles heel this season. The #99 Ford ranked 6th on the ten-lap average chart in Practice #2 and in Happy Hour it was 14th-best in terms of that speed. Edwards finished inside the top 10 in both races here at Loudon last season and has ended up 13th or better in five of the last seven.
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Matchups
The Red Deuce is ranked number 1 for this one however the #24 and #48 isn;t far behind him.
Brad was at the top of both speed charts on Saturday, but does that mean he has a good car for the actual race on Sunday? With about 15 minutes remaining in Happy Hour, Paul Wolfe and this #2 team finally went out and made a long run. That?s concerning to me because usually this team works on race runs pretty much all weekend, and when you?re only making short 5-lap runs at a place like Loudon, it tells me you?re car isn?t able to maintain speed. So it may be nothing to it at all, but with that being said I'm not in total shock-n-awe in going against him. I just need one of those cats to out run to turn a profit.
Gordon is a three-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and although I kind of expected him to have a few more wins at this track, he?s still considered a threat pretty much every time the series stops here. His 10.6 average finish here is third-best in the series behind Denny Hamlin and teammate Jimmie Johnson. This weekend specifically, the #24 Chevrolet unloaded fast and has been that way in pretty much every single on-track session. Gordon had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ranked 7th on that chart in Happy Hour. He posted the 3rd-fastest lap in Practice #2 and the 2nd-best lap in Happy Hour. It was noted that Gordon ran consistent lap times even on old tires in practice, and that will definitely pay dividends during the Camping World RV Sales 301 on Sunday.
In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Chad Knaus told Jimmie Johnson that he needed him to get a couple of tenths more out of the car. If this would have been any other team, I would be concerned. However, this is the #48 crew we?re talking about. Johnson was 10th-fastest on the speed chart in that earlier practice session and didn?t show up on the ten-lap average chart. In Happy Hour, the #48 Chevrolet had the 4th-best ten-lap average, which is encouraging. They definitely improved between those two sessions. ?Six Time? is a three-time winner here at Loudon with his most recent victory coming during the 2010 season.
I already talked about Kyle Busch....
Going into the Camping World RV Sales 301, you could throw a cover over the Joe Gibbs Racing cars because they?re all that close. I think we?ll see all three of them finish near each other, as we tend to do many weeks. So VALUE goes to the underdog in this matchup. Denny struggled here last season, finishing 21st and 12th, but Hamlin ran 2nd and 1st here in 2012, and has ended up inside the top 5 in four of the seven events held here at ?The Magic Mile.? Like I said in my Kyle review there is always some chance in taking him. However we haven?t been able to trust the #11 team all year long.
