New Independent Study Questions Wells Report, Says ?Unlikely? Patriots Deflated Footb
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opcorn2
The pressure of a football depends on the
ambient temperature of the atmosphere in which
it is located. Footballs inflated to 12.5 PSI at room
temperature will drop in pressure when taken
into the cold. The pressure in the football will
increase when it is brought back into a warm
room. Estimating how much the pressure in the
ball will decline when the external temperature
changes involves straightforward physics.
An investigation that identifies wrongdoing on
the part of the Patriots should document three
things: that the pressure in the Patriots balls
declined more than the pressure in the Colts
balls, that the pressure in the Patriots balls was
significantly below the level predicted by basic
physics, and that the pressure in the Colts balls
was not statistically above or below the level
predicted by basic physics. The confluence of
these three results would represent a smoking
gun. However, the statistically different reduction
in pressure could result either because the
Patriots balls declined more than predicted or
because the Colts balls declined less than
predicted. The Wells report provides no statistical
analysis on this key point.
The problem here is that ideally, measurements
would have been taken simultaneously for all
balls, outdoors, at the end of the half, and with
the same gauge that was used before the game.
Instead, the balls were taken inside and measured
there, but not measured simultaneously. The
pressure was checked twice for the Patriots balls
(once with each gauge), after which the Patriots
balls were reinflated and the Colts ball pressure
was measured. Only 4 of the Colts balls (instead
of all 12) were measured because halftime ended
and the officials ran out of time. The fact that the
officials ran out of time is highly material: it
implies that the Colts balls were inside a warm
room for almost the entire halftime before they
were measured and thus had a chance to warm
up.
The Wells report?s analysis focuses on the
pressure drop of the Patriots balls between their
pregame and halftime measurements relative to
the pressure drop of the Colts balls between their
pregame and halftime measurements. The
question the report attempts to answer is whether
the pressure drop of the Patriots balls can be
explained as the natural pressure drop of a
football used during the game, or whether only
human intervention can explain the pressure
reduction.
ambient temperature of the atmosphere in which
it is located. Footballs inflated to 12.5 PSI at room
temperature will drop in pressure when taken
into the cold. The pressure in the football will
increase when it is brought back into a warm
room. Estimating how much the pressure in the
ball will decline when the external temperature
changes involves straightforward physics.
An investigation that identifies wrongdoing on
the part of the Patriots should document three
things: that the pressure in the Patriots balls
declined more than the pressure in the Colts
balls, that the pressure in the Patriots balls was
significantly below the level predicted by basic
physics, and that the pressure in the Colts balls
was not statistically above or below the level
predicted by basic physics. The confluence of
these three results would represent a smoking
gun. However, the statistically different reduction
in pressure could result either because the
Patriots balls declined more than predicted or
because the Colts balls declined less than
predicted. The Wells report provides no statistical
analysis on this key point.
The problem here is that ideally, measurements
would have been taken simultaneously for all
balls, outdoors, at the end of the half, and with
the same gauge that was used before the game.
Instead, the balls were taken inside and measured
there, but not measured simultaneously. The
pressure was checked twice for the Patriots balls
(once with each gauge), after which the Patriots
balls were reinflated and the Colts ball pressure
was measured. Only 4 of the Colts balls (instead
of all 12) were measured because halftime ended
and the officials ran out of time. The fact that the
officials ran out of time is highly material: it
implies that the Colts balls were inside a warm
room for almost the entire halftime before they
were measured and thus had a chance to warm
up.
The Wells report?s analysis focuses on the
pressure drop of the Patriots balls between their
pregame and halftime measurements relative to
the pressure drop of the Colts balls between their
pregame and halftime measurements. The
question the report attempts to answer is whether
the pressure drop of the Patriots balls can be
explained as the natural pressure drop of a
football used during the game, or whether only
human intervention can explain the pressure
reduction.
Summary of Findings
The evidence we present points to a simple?and
innocent?explanation for the change in pressure
in the Patriots footballs. The Patriots balls were
measured at the start of halftime, whereas the
Colts balls were measured at the end of halftime,
after sufficient time had passed for the balls to
warm up and return to their pregame pressure.
There is no need to consider the alternative
hypothesis?that the Colts illegally inflated their
footballs?because a simple physical explanation
is available.
The fact that the average pressure of the Colts
balls was significantly above the prediction of the
Ideal Gas Law, while that of the Patriots balls was
not, is inconsistent with the findings of the Wells
report. Our conclusion that the warming of the
balls during halftime is the key factor overlooked
in the Wells report is supported by the
observation that the readings of the intercepted
Patriots football, measured separately from the
other Patriots balls, came in almost precisely at
the prediction of the law. Under the hypothesis
asserted by the Well report, the odds of this
Patriots ball matching the Ideal Gas Law
prediction were between 1 out of 3 and 1 out of
300. It is therefore unlikely that the Patriots
deflated the footballs.
The evidence we present points to a simple?and
innocent?explanation for the change in pressure
in the Patriots footballs. The Patriots balls were
measured at the start of halftime, whereas the
Colts balls were measured at the end of halftime,
after sufficient time had passed for the balls to
warm up and return to their pregame pressure.
There is no need to consider the alternative
hypothesis?that the Colts illegally inflated their
footballs?because a simple physical explanation
is available.
The fact that the average pressure of the Colts
balls was significantly above the prediction of the
Ideal Gas Law, while that of the Patriots balls was
not, is inconsistent with the findings of the Wells
report. Our conclusion that the warming of the
balls during halftime is the key factor overlooked
in the Wells report is supported by the
observation that the readings of the intercepted
Patriots football, measured separately from the
other Patriots balls, came in almost precisely at
the prediction of the law. Under the hypothesis
asserted by the Well report, the odds of this
Patriots ball matching the Ideal Gas Law
prediction were between 1 out of 3 and 1 out of
300. It is therefore unlikely that the Patriots
deflated the footballs.
The pats cheated and were caught yet again under Kraft/hoodie. This surprised no one outside of new england. Time to move on.
