New Poster, Longtime Reader and Capper.... Today's an Easy One

[Slinky77]

I've been reading Mad Jacks for years, been capping longer than that.

Thought it was time to throw my hat into the ring and help some people make some money.

I'm on a torrid stretch right now especially picking NBA playoff winners but I'm not going to post a record since it cannot be verified. Let's just say I'm up big time the past few months.

Today is an easy one for me. Taking my entire week's winnings and laying it all on the line tonight to end this week with a bang and collect tomorrow.

As close to automatic as they come.... Lakers ML -250.

3500/1400.

GL everyone.

:toast:

 

[Destructor D]

Glad to have you post, but really question your money management. Laying your winnings for the week on the Sunday night game...

 

[Slinky77]

Its all about feel for me. That's how I play and that's always how I've done it.

I'm not going to get into my reasons for liking this play as strongly as I do, but let's just say I'd be shocked if the Lakers lost. They looked like the far superior team in game one and were up 20 points until the late Celtics run. They haven't lost yet at home this year in the playoffs. I don't see it happening now.

Honestly, I think they cover the spread. Being up so much for the week gives me the chance to play the ML and not sweat it out.

If it wasn't almost automatic in my eyes I wouldn't have laid my entire week's winnings on the game.

But when you see an opportunity for easy money, you have to take it. I think you have to be aggressive when you get the chance. This is a perfect spot for me.

That's how you get a positive bank roll.

 

[Slinky77]

Total jumping up to 192 from 190 on my 2 sites....

Puzzling to me as there were a TON of fouls called on Thursday and the game needed a late Kobe 3 pointer to get to 191.

Pace dictated by both teams was slower than the final score indicated.

Not sure if this is a "false line move" as some posters on here claim but interesting none the less. Would be curious to know the breakdown of where the money is on this play. Anyone have those numbers handy? Opened at 189.5 on both my sites.

I may have to add a small wager on the under. Let me do some research and I'll get back to you guys with that one.

But if you had to choose a side on the total, the under seems to be the one to take. Although before the big line swing it wasn't interesting to me.

At 192 its tempting.

 

[ldabdou]

Under is the logical play on the board. Big one for me.

 

[Slinky77]

Ok something is definitely up.
Both my books now have the total at 193.

193? Are you serious?

Its almost too enticing to pass up.
I usually hate to play both a total and a side on the same game but this may force my hand.

Can anyone give me a logical reason to think the total will break 193, barring overtime? Am I missing something?

I just can't understand what would sway the public to have 80% bets on the over (as king69 stated).

 

[Slinky77]

Both regular season games went WAY under.

173 and 179.

:shrug:

:mj03:

 

[Theboundbook]

SO, IF THE BOOKS ARE ALL OVER SHOVING THIS LINE UP UP UP, AND THE PUBLIC IS ON THE UNDER, THEN ONE MUST GO ON OVER.... What are the %s right now???? ( I will most my decision 15 min before tipoff...) Hopefully we can get hourly updates on the %s of under/over and how the line is moving in accordance to those betting....

 

[gjn23]

Ok something is definitely up.
Both my books now have the total at 193.

193? Are you serious?

Its almost too enticing to pass up.
I usually hate to play both a total and a side on the same game but this may force my hand.

Can anyone give me a logical reason to think the total will break 193, barring overtime? Am I missing something?

I just can't understand what would sway the public to have 80% bets on the over (as king69 stated).

thought you went all-in on the lakers ml???

still got money left for a total bet???

 

[Slinky77]

What do you mean? I only put this week's winnings on the Laker's ML.

That's a small % of total bankroll.

Either way, if 80% of the public is on the over and I liked the under anyway (then it jumps up 3 points) it might be tough to pass up.

I'm not placing anything right now but I'm going to watch it closely until tip off.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ok something is definitely up.
Both my books now have the total at 193.

193? Are you serious?

Its almost too enticing to pass up.
I usually hate to play both a total and a side on the same game but this may force my hand.

Can anyone give me a logical reason to think the total will break 193, barring overtime? Am I missing something?

I just can't understand what would sway the public to have 80% bets on the over (as king69 stated).

Even IF there is a site that says 80% on the over, it's just one site. There are a TON of consensus sites, and they all give out different numbers. Just the other day somebody asked about the O/U on game 1 and somebody said his site said 62% under, but someone else said his site said 60% over. :mj07:

 

[Slinky77]

Glad I stayed away from the total....

Ray Allen 7-8 3's first half. Lakers shoot 37%?

2nd half Lakers -7 1100/1000

 

[Slinky77]

2 minutes in... 7 points already made up.....


:0002

 

[kegray1]

Stick to reading. :142smilie

Just kidding.
Sorry for the rough night.

Keep on posting.

 

[Dr Feelgood]

only question now is if you stay or if you go....

not a good opening night...but if you do as well as you say you do there are 3 games minimum to get it back....

 

[gjn23]

only question now is if you stay or if you go....

not a good opening night...but if you do as well as you say you do there are 3 games minimum to get it back....

torrid stretch of winners + 1 loser = no money

:shrug:

 

[King69]

Sorry man that is no way to lose your weeks worth of work.

 

[Juji-gatame]

torrid stretch of winners + 1 loser = no money

:shrug:

2 losers. 2nd half as well. :scared.

Doubt that much was played anyway, but sux just the same. Live and learn!:0074

Sorry for whatever you lost:sadwave:

 

[Slinky77]

No way to predict that one.

Not a good first impression to make. I'm sure a lot of you probably think I'm a clown. But I will keep posting and hopefully keep churning out winners.

Nights like tonight happen. Just sucks that it happens to be the first game I post my play and it turns out to be such a dud.

Have a good night all.

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

as a capper for yeeeears, i learned not to put all the eggs in one basket, that's way i play same amount each time, and my big plays are just a little bigger .... but of course, i play for fan and any $$ a can get from it is always great.....

sorry about that man, but we got to learn from decisions like u just did 2nite... BTW, i do not think ur a clown, any time we make a bet no matter what is a 50% - 50% shi.t or at least i see it that way, u just took a bad one 2nite..

gl next time....


vicc