NFL 2023-2024 Best Bets-OPINIONS-NEWS !

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Championship

KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after going under the total in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Championship

NFL
Long Sheet

Championship

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Championship

Chiefs (14-6) vs 49ers (14-5) (-2.5) (@ Las Vegas)
— Chiefs won their last five games, giving up 14 ppg.
— Chiefs are 4-4 SU vs teams that made the playoffs.
— Kansas City is 8-5 TY in one-score games.
— Chiefs were +3 in turnovers in AFC title game, their first plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last 14 games, Chiefs are minus-9 in turnovers.
— Since 2019, Chiefs are 13-2 in playoff games, winning two Super Bowls.
— Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games.
— coach Reid is 25-16 in playoff games, 15-7 with KC.
— Mahomes is 88-25 SU as an NFL starter, 14-3 in playoffs.
— AFC West underdogs are 8-8-2 ATS outside the division.


— 49ers are 9-2 since their bye week (5-6 ATS).
— SF trailed NFC title game 24-7 at halftime.
— 49ers scored 24+ points in wins, 17-17-17-19-20 in losses.
— 49ers are 9-9-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
— 49ers are 3-3 TY in one-score games.
— SF is 7-3 SU vs teams that made the playoffs
— Over is 6-3 in their last eight games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 21-5 as NFL starter, 4-1 in playoffs.
— Coach Shanahan is 72-54 as a head coach, 8-3 in playoffs.
— since 2012, 49ers are 12-5 SU in playoff games, 5-5 away from home.
— NFC West favorites are 11-11-1 ATS outside the division.

— Over the last 22 Super Bowls, #1-seeds are 2-9 when playing an opponent who wasn’t a #1-seed. 49ers are a #1-seed, the Chiefs aren’t.


— Kansas City won five of last six series games.
— Chiefs beat the 49ers 44-34 in Santa Clara LY; they outscored SF 30-10 in 2nd half.
— Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl, four years ago.
— AFC won six of the last nine Super Bowls.
— Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last 12 Super Bowls.




NFL

Championship

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Trend Report
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San Francisco @ Kansas City
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 11​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
SF at KC	06:30 PM	SF -2.0 U 47.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Six of the Atlanta Braves’ best prospects:
1- AJ Smith-Shawver, P
2- Hurston Waldrep, P
3- JR Ritchie, P
4- Owen Murphy, P
5- Spencer Schwellenbach, P
6- David McCabe, 1B/3B

Quote of the Day
“Buddy, when he’s over the shot, shut the hell up, man. Come on, he’s trying to hit a damn golf shot here. It’s our (bleep)ing job.”
Golfer Billy Horschel, scolding a fan at the Phoenix Open

Monday’s quiz
Who was the Chiefs’ quarterback before Patrick Mahomes?

Sunday’s quiz
Steve Christie held the record for the longest field goal in Super Bowl history, before there were two field goals longer than his last night. Harrison Butker now holds the record for the longest FG in a Super Bowl- 57 yards.

Saturday’s quiz
Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

************************************

Monday’s Den: Super Bowl knowledge and other stuff…….​

Chiefs 25, 49ers 22, OT
Second overtime game in Super Bowl history; Kyle Shanahan was the OC for Atlanta in the other overtime game, when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead and lost to New England.
Chiefs’ first four drives: 15 plays, 89 yards, no points.
Chiefs’ last four drives: 37 plays, 224 yards, 15 points.
Chiefs are first team in 20 years to win back/back Super Bowls.
49ers were 0-6 this season when they scored less than 24 points.
Chiefs were 9-19 on third down, San Francisco 3-12.
Over the last 23 Super Bowls, #1-seeds are 2-10 when playing an opponent who wasn’t a #1-seed.
Mahomes threw for 333 yards, ran for 66 more; he is 89-25 SU as an NFL starter, 15-3 in playoff games.
AFC won seven of the last ten Super Bowls.
Underdogs are 9-4 ATS in last 13 Super Bowls.
This was the 15th Super Bowl with a scoreless first quarter.
There has never been a punt returned for a TD in a Super Bowl.
49ers’ WR Jauan Jennings joins Nick Foles as the only two players with a TD pass and a TD catch in a Super Bowl.

— Word of the Day: Pinnacle- the most successful point, the highest point of a person’s career.
Not to be confused with pinochle, a card game for 2+ players using a 48-card deck.

— Seattle Seahawks are hiring Ryan Grubb as their offensive coordinator; he was supposed to have that job at Alabama next season, but now that isn’t happening. Grubb is expected to being offensive line coach Scott Huff with him from Tuscaloosa.

— Tom Brady is expected to own 7% of the Las Vegas Raiders fairly soon; my calculator tells me that his share of the team will be worth $406M.

— Baseball Note of the Day: Tampa Bay Rays signed manager Kevin Cash, MLB’s longest-tenured manager, to a contract extension. Cash is 754-636 managing the small-market Rays, going 15-19 in playoff games.

— Movie of the Day: The Rainmaker (1997)- An underdog lawyer takes on a fraudulent insurance company; Matt Damon is the lawyer, Danny DeVito also works for the firm. Jon Voight is the opposing lawyer in a wrongful death suit; Danny Glover is the judge.
John Grisham is a great story teller; this movie is no exception.

— Here are the 11 Big East teams, and their national rankings, as far as the %age of their points they get on the foul line. Apparently there aren’t a lot of fouls called in Big East games.
#85- DePaul
#88- Georgetown (#333 on 2-point shots)
#143- Seton Hall
#157- Xavier
#190- Villanova
#209- UConn
#214- Butler
#224- Providence
#300- St John’s
#345- Marquette
#347- Creighton (there are 362 teams in Division I)
Weird thing is, top two teams on the list are the two worst teams in the league.

— Georgia Tech has beaten both Duke/North Carolina in ACC games this season, but despite that, Yellow Jackets are 3-10 in the ACC- they beat Clemson in a double overtime game.

— Creighton is 4-1 ATS as a Big East road favorite; they’re 0-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— In his last five games, Virginia senior Jake Groves is 16-22 on 3-point shots.

— 17 of the top 25 teams in last week’s college basketball poll lost this week.

— Clemson G Joe Girard played in 125 games in his four years at Syracuse; had to be weird for him when the Tigers visited the Carrier Dome Saturday. Girard scored 18 points in Clemson’s 77-68 win Saturday.
This season, Girard is making 43.9% of his 3-point shots; Clemson is 16-7 and is likely headed to the NCAA’s for the first time since 2017, and third time since 2012.

— Referee Doug Shows’ itinerary so far this month:
2/1- Appalachian State @ Georgia State
2/2- St Bonaventure @ Dayton
2/3- Tennessee @ Kentucky
2/4- UAB @ Southern Methodist
2/6- Ole Miss @ South Carolina
2/7- Alabama @ Auburn
2/10- Mississippi State @ Missouri
2/11- UAB @ Tulsa
Shows worked eight games in the first 11 days of February; he’s in his 50’s.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
— A’s 3, New York 1- Spunky A’s split four games in the Bronx.
— Dodgers 2, Nationals 1- Yamamoto tossed six shutout innings.
— Rockies 10, Padres 9- Colorado scored six runs in bottom of 8th.
— Brewers 7, Pirates 5- Sanchez hit pinch-hit homer in 8th for 16-8 Milwaukee.
— Phillies 5, Reds 0- Harper homered, in his first game after paternity leave.
— Cubs 3, Astros 1- Rookie OF Crow-Armstrong’s first MLB hit was a home run.

Quote of the Day
“He makes some big plays … [but] he’s going to need some work in reading defenses, reading coverages. He’s kind of quick to bail out of the pocket, he’s going to have to hang in there a little bit longer, I think, and find those receivers. … This is a kid that can make all the throws. He just needs to be more consistent.”
Bill Belichick, talking about Drake Maye, the Patriots’ new QB

Friday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Hall of Famer John Elway?

Thursday’s quiz
Peyton Manning was first pick in the 1998 NFL Draft; QB Ryan Leaf was the second pick, by the Chargers.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A League of Their Own, the team that Tom Hanks managed, that also had Madonna and Geena Davis playing, was the Rockford Peaches.


***************************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up the first round of the NFL Draft…..​

Lot of stuff going on; baseball, NHL/NBA playoffs, but tonight I focused on the first round of the NFL Draft.

— Before we start talking football, let me vent for a second; I’m in my 60’s, since 2019 I’ve had three operations on my right eye. The eye is fine now, thanks to my two surgeons, but I’m still a stickler for taking good care of your eyes.
It drives me nutty when I see people wearing sunglasses indoors; take care of your damn eyes!!! Why were several guys at the draft wearing sunglasses inside? It is nonsensical.

— Chicago Bears had the first pick in this draft, the first time since 1947 they had the first pick; they took USC QB Caleb Williams, then later took Washington WR Rome Odunze with the 9th pick. Bears have never had a QB throw 30+ TD’s in a season, or for 4,000+ yards in a season; they seem determine to break those trends.
In two years at USC, Williams took only seven snaps under center (as opposed to the shotgun) but lot of college QB’s have gone thru that recently, so no big deal there.

— Commanders/Patriots followed by doing the expected, taking QB’s Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye; this was the 4th time since 1971 that the first three picks in a draft were QB’s.

— Before the draft, Eagles signed WR AJ Brown to a 3-year extension worth $96M, with $84M of that guaranteed.

— NFL commish Roger Goodell had back surgery 3-4 weeks ago, so his greetings on stage with guys who got drafted were a little more subdued this year.

By the way, they estimated that there were 275,000 people at the draft in Detroit. Must have been a solid night for the pickpockets in the crowd.

— Atlanta Falcons stunned lot of people (including newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins) by drafting Washington QB Michael Penix with the #8 pick. Penix has already torn his right ACL twice, and separated both shoulders; he wasn’t even at the draft, but went with the 8th pick.

— Vikings traded up one spot and drafted Michigan QB JJ McCarthy; they later traded up again and took Alabama LB Dallas Turner.
To get Turner with the 17th pick, Vikings gave Jacksonville a 5th round pick this year, plus 3rd and 4th round picks next year- they must really like him.
This was the earliest the Vikings have ever drafted a QB; in 1999, they took Daunte Culpepper with the 11th pick in the draft.

— Denver drafted Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12th pick; Mel Kiper said Nix reminds him a little bit of Drew Brees. Nix started 61 games at Auburn/Oregon, the all-time record for college starts; he gets to learn from Sean Payton, one of the better QB gurus.

— Famous birthdays for April 26th:
Carol Burnett, 91
Gary Cuozzo, 83
Doug France, 71
Phil Olsen, 66
Kevin James, 59
Cole Beasley, 35
Joey Wendle, 34
Aaron Judge, 32

— One of the surprising things about the Falcons drafting a QB is that they need defense; over the last three years, Atlanta has a total of only 81 sacks, least in the NFL.

— Apparently, Vikings/Patriots both called the Chargers and tried to trade for QB Justin Herbert; both were told to take a hike.

— Cardinals drafted WR Marvin Harrison Jr; he is the 5th first round pick ever whose dad was an NFL Hall of Famer.

— Two LSU receivers went in the first round:
Giants took Malik Cabers, Jaguars took Brian Thomas.
Last three LSU receivers drafted in the first round:
2021- Ja’Maar Chase
2020- Justin Jefferson
2014- Odell Beckham

— First 14 players drafted play offense, which is an all-time record.

— Lot of media people are obsessed with “Who won the trade?” but it is possible for both teams to win (or lose) a trade.

— Rams had their first 1st round pick since 2016 (Jared Goff); they took DE Jared Verse of Florida State, who played his first two college years at I-AA Albany, where I went to school. With Aaron Donald retiring, Rams need to bolster their defense.

— Last month, Steelers traded a 6th round pick for QB Justin Fields; word comes out that they’re not going to pick up his 5th-year $25M option next winter, since they also acquired Russell Wilson.

— Six of the first 12 picks were quarterbacks, tying 1983 for the most QB’s taken in the first round; for what its worth, four of those six players transferred during their college careers.

— Draft continues Friday, with the 2nd/3rd round picks happening then.

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s Den: Way too early NFL trends…….

NFL Draft is over, 2024 schedule comes out in a couple weeks; here are some NFL trends to ponder, with the season only 4+ months away:

NFC East
Cowboys
Since 2015, they’re 2-5 in playoff games.
Haven’t been in a conference championship game since 1995.

Giants
QB Daniel Jones makes $40M a year; he is 23-37-1 as an NFL starter.
Since 2012, Giants are 2-10 SU/1-11 ATS in their home opener.

Eagles
Won/covered their last eight pre-bye games.
Since they won Super Bowl in 2017, Eagles are 3-5 in playoff games.

Commanders
Washington’s last playoff win was in 2005.
New coach Dan Quinn was 46-44 coaching Atlanta, 3-2 in playoff games.

NFC North
Bears
Since losing Super Bowl in 2006, Bears are 1-3 in playoff games.
Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road openers.

Lions
Detroit’s 2 playoff wins LY were their first since 1991.
Last 12 years, Lions are 10-2 ATS in their post-bye game.

Packers
Green Bay won its last 11 home openers (8-3 ATS)
Since 2014, Packers are 6-1 SU in their first playoff game of a season.

Vikings
Last 12 times they were in playoffs, Vikings went WL 8 times, 0-1 four times.
Minnesota is 12-3 in its last 15 pre-bye games.

NFC South
Falcons
Atlanta hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2017.
Last 20 years, Falcons are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home openers.

Panthers
Dave Canales is Carolina’s 4th head coach in six years, not counting interim coaches.
Since losing the Super Bowl in 2015, Panthers are 0-1 in playoff games.

Saints
Since winning Super Bowl in 2009, Saints are 4-7 in playoff games.
Last nine years, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in their home opener.

Buccaneers
Since 2002, Bucs are 3-4 in home playoff games, 6-1 away from home.
Last seven years, Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU/ATS in its pot-bye game.

NFC West
Rams
Under McVay, Rams are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS in their road opener.
Before McVay, Rams had missed playoffs 12 years in a row; in his seven years with LA, they’re 7-4 in playoff games.

Cardinals
Since 2009, Arizona is 2-4 in playoff games, with both wins in overtime.
Cardinals covered their last five road openers.

49ers
Last six times they were in playoffs, 49ers went WWL
Last ten years, under is 8-2 in their home openers.

Seahawks
Pete Carroll was 147-98-1 in Seattle, 10-9 in playoff games.
Since 2017, Seahawks are 1-4 in playoff games.

AFC East
Bills
Since 2020, Bills are 5-3 in playoff games, losing at home last two years.
Buffalo is 0-9 in last nine road playoff games; last road win, 1992 at Miami.

Dolphins
Miami hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000, an OT win over the Colts.
Last nine years, Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their road opener.

Patriots
Last five years, New England is 0-2 in playoff games.
Last 11 years, Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their pre-bye game.

Jets
Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.
Jets haven’t played a home playoff game since 2002.

AFC North
Ravens
Last eight years, Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its Week 1 game.
Since winning Super Bowl in 2012, Ravens are 3-6 in playoff games.

Bengals
From 1991-2020, Bengals were 0-7 in playoff games.
Since Joe Burrow has been a Bengal, they’re 5-2 in playoff games.

Browns
Cleveland is 1-3 in playoff games (only win, 48-37 at Pittsburgh in 2020)
Last six years, Browns are 4-2 ATS in their road opener.

Steelers
Last six years, Steelers are 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in their home opener.
Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016 (0-4 since then)

AFC South

Houston went WL in 5 of their 7 playoff appearances.
Texans are 4-2 in home playoff games, 0-5 in road games.

Colts
Last 11 years, Colts are 9-2 ATS in their pre-bye game.
Last nine years, Colts are 7-2 ATS in their post-bye game.

Jaguars
Last seven years, Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their road opener.
Jacksonville is 4-1 in home playoff games, 4-7 in road games.

Titans
Last eight years, Titans are 2-6 ATS in their home opener.
Tennessee lost its last three home playoff games, scoring 10-13-16 points.

AFC West
Broncos
Broncos haven’t been in playoffs since winning Super Bowl in 2015 season.
Last seven years, Denver is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in their road opener.

Chiefs
Andy Reid is 16-7 in playoff games as coach of the Chiefs.
Last 11 years, Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in its road opener.

Raiders
Since losing Super Bowl in 2002 season, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games.
Last nine years, Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their road opener.

Chargers
Chargers haven’t played a home playoff game since 2009.
Last seven years, Bolts are 2-5 ATS in their home opener.