NFL 2023

[RBD]

I'm more of a college guy, don't usually do a lot of NFL 'capping (was 3-2 here LY) but I'm going to try to spend a little more time on it this year.

I have a couple of games circled, three early buys, two others I'm waiting on.

I have a situational spot with 5 YR's of data, a record of 2-10, that says play ON Denver. At 2-10, I'm fading that one.
I have a spot that was 3-0 LY week one, this year it has Cle, Ind, and both NY teams.
I also have another spot that says take Cleve, 12-4 LY, so with two indicators indicating take Cleveland I'm definitely on that one.

Hoping for some late $ to come on the Fav in Cin/Cle, slim chance it'll get to a FG but ya never know, no harm waiting as worst case it goes from 2' to 2, not much danger there. Same with J-E-T-S, waiting on it, a decent chance late $ comes on the Fav there.

Took a prop tonight (I gotta have some fun, right?) Shortest TD Un 1'

Good luck with your play this season . . .

Buys:
Det/KC Shortest TD Un 1' -156
Cle (wait to buy)
Ind +5
LV +3'
NYG +3', -115
NYJ (wait)

 

[RBD]

Recap : 1-0
Record: 1-0
Sides and totals 0-0, prop beys 1-0.

Review: I was expecting to get a pass interference in the end zone to put the ball on the one yard line, didn't get it but still got a one-yard score in the Det/KC game.

Sorry this is late couldn't get access.
Update with one of two buys I was waiting for:

Buys:
Cle +1
Ind +5
LV +3'
NYG +3', -115
NYJ (wait)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2
Record: 3-2
Sides 2-2, totals 0-0, props 1-0.

Review: Won with Cle and LV, lost with Indy, and - I don't know WHAT to call it for the NYG's. "Lost" doesn't come close enough to descibe that fiasco.

I was waiting to buy NYJ, hoping it would get from +2' to + a FG, but it's dropped to +2. And the situational spot it's based on went just 1-2 yesterday, with the Indy and NYG losses. So I'm going to follow one of my simple rules to beat the books - ALWAYS finish the week with a profit if you can.

No buy for me today. I'll lock up a profit for week one and look for my next buy next week when I have a full slate of games to choose from.

 

[RBD]

Record: 3-2
Sides 2-2, totals 0-0, props 1-0

I have Carolina in one of the few situational spots I track in the NFL, got them today because the # will drop. It's based on a differential of 10 or > between my # and the books. It's 2-0 this year (Cleveland week one and Az last week) so I'm going to jump on it this week.


Buys:
Car +4'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-3 (sides 2-2, totals 0-1, props 1-0)

Carolina looked good at the half, but a Q3 scoop and score by Min D; never recovered from it.

I have a few games in mind for this week, made a couple of early buys.

Buys:
Bal/Pit Un 38
Phil/LAR Ov 50'
NYJ/Den Ov 43

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 5-4
Sides 2-3 (Favs 0-0, Dogs 2-3)
Totals 2-1 (Ov 1-1, Un 1-0)
Props 1-0

Hit 2 of 3 last time in, took last week off 'cuz I was pissed about that N Dame game.

I have a few spots charted with some value.

LV/Chi Ov is an 0-2 spot in two different plays I chart; Fading it.

My best spot is an Ov play that's 1-9 in NFL and 2-3 in college.
This week it has Over in Jax/NO, Buf/NE, Wash/NYG, Pit/LAR
I'm going to buy the Thur spot and early games on Sunday and hope I'm getting on it before the trend starts to reverse.

I have to do my NFL 'capping earlier in the week, I missed out on the best lines for some of my buys because I don't look at NFL until Thursdays.
Lost out on a full FG in the CHI game and 2' in Wash/NYG. I usually stay off a game that moves 3 or > against me, but . . .

Buys:
Jax/NO Un 40'
Buff/NE Un 41
LV/Chi Un 37'
Wash/NYG Un

 

[RBD]

Update: 0-1
Record: 5-5

Lost last time in with Jacksonville Un on Thursday night.

Also, got my ass kicked in college yesterday so buyer beware.

Hope I can get a unit or two back today.

Buys:
Buff/NE Un 41
LV/Chi Un 37'
Chi +3 -118
Wash/NYG Un 37

 

[RBD]

Adding a prop.

Buys:
Buff/NE Un 41
R. Stevenson Ov 2' receptions -135
LV/Chi Un 37'
Chi +3 -118
Wash/NYG Un 37

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-2
Record: 8-7

Head above water seven weeks into the season, I'll take it, especially since I'm not an NFL guy and considering how bad my college play is this year.

Was looking okay in Buf/NE Un until 14 points scored with under two minutes to go.

Lost the Chi Un with one minute to go when LV got a backdoor TD.

I'm pretty selective when buying props, but after making numbers for years in Vegas I know a bad line when I see it, and Stevenson 2' receptions was a bad number. I had him at a minimum of 5 targets, meaning I only needed 3 of 5 completions to get a W. Since the passes would all likely be easy-to-catch, short screen passes I took the Ov.
He had six targets. He caught all six.
If only I could see all spots that clearly . . .

I have one game circled as a buy this week, a Wrong Fav spot taking Tenn. Two plays on this one, a 2-0 spot and a 4-1 spot (the same one I mentioned in post #4 above when it lost w/Car.) Line is Atl -2' right now. I'll buy the hook if I have to (something I rarely do and don't recommend) but the line is moving in my favor (Atl was -1) so I'll wait to buy.

Looking hard at the Un in Cle/Sea, have a few spots that say take it Ov that are a solid Fade at a combined 5-13, but I made the total 43 and it's at 40 on the board, a FG lower than I would to see.

Back with more when I make some buys.

 

[RBD]

Can't buy the Seattle game Un as I mentioned above as it's dropped another three points, down to 37 now.
I like it under but I'm not betting a line that's six points worse than what I should have gotten if I bought it earlier in the week.

Tennessee line +2' is not going to go up to the +3 I was hoping for so I'm going to buy that with the hook now as I see -2 starting to show up.

Back with more after I do some more number crunching.

Update: Adding a play, same play as Ten (I guess it's "Buy the hook day.")

Buys
Ten +3 -125
Pit +3 -125

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 9-8

Split last time in, hit with Ten, missed with Pit.

I bought one game this week based on the oldest "system" I have. Based on a trend reversal, 1-0 this season.
Two teams who have turned their season around, Min on a five game win streak after losing four of their fist five, and Denver on a three game win streak including a high quality W vs league leading KC, and a tough Rd W at Buff in their last game.
Three of the Vikes five wins in their current streak have come against teams with a losing record, and one was against the 5-5 Saints; their only quality win came vs S Fran.

The Vikings are a solid 4-1 SU on the Rd, but my play says to Fade Min and that's what I'm going to do.
Denver has a chance to get to .500 here, at Hm, laying < than a FG.
Two teams heading in the right direction, one is about to take a step back.

Dobbs was 0-4 on the Rd while with Arizona, beat Atlanta in his only Rd game with Minnesota.
Hoping the trip to Mile High to face a newly confident Bronco team proves a bit too challenging for the new Viking QB.

Buys:
Den -2'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-9

Here's the breakdown: Favs 0-1, Dogs 4-4, Ov 1-1, Un 2-3, Props 2-0
Nothing stands out, nothing to play more of or avoid, pretty much .500 for all spots except props.
KNOW YOUR OWN RECORD!!!
Most 'cappers spend a lot of time reviewing the stats of the teams (side or total) they're looking at playing but ZERO time on their own records.
Handicap the game, but handicap the handicapper, too. It WILL help you with your decision making and on your profit/loss statement.

Denver missed a 2 pt conversion with one minute left in the game that would have covered my spread, so, naturally I rooted for Minnesota to win it in the final minute. This is SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) for sports bettors: "Either cover for me or FUCK YOU. I hope you lose SU!"

Sitting at .500 but having fun crunching numbers. A lot of TV games this week with the Thanksgiving and Black Friday card, so I'm going crazy and not being my usual conservative self. I'll either up my bankroll or dig a hole, but it IS going to be fun. I think.

Missed out on the best # for three of the games I bought, but what the hell, I'm in anyway, based on the records of the various situational plays I track.
No sense doing all the 'capping I do if I'm not going to follow what the #'s tell me to play.

I have a 6-1 WF (Wrong Fav) spot that says play AGAINST San Fran.
I'm 1-1 on posted plays in this spot, missed a close one with Car, won with Tenn vs Atl.
I'm a Seahawk fan. After watching them blow their last game vs the lowly Rams my first thought was - "Grab SF on Thursday night's game as soon as the line comes out because it's going to go up."
I went to buy it but there was no line due to the questionabilty of Geno's injury status. It opened 6', now 7 is starting to show up.
This play was 12-4 last year, 6-1 this year, making it 18-5 combined. I don't like Sea but it's hard to ignore a stat like that.
SF has been playing well since Deebo came back, beating the Bucs by 13 pts and the red hot Jags by 31. Hard to ignore that also.
Walker out but Charbonnet can fill his shoes, no concern there.
Geno not at 100%, that is a concern because even at 100% he' still not on his game, like he was last year.
Can't see Sea winning this one, and I hate to bet on a team I think is going to lose and not cover.
REALLY tough call. Go with my stats/#'s or my gut, head and heart?
This one's going to need time and thought but I will definitely have action on it.

Update: added the total on the Atlanta game.

Buys:
NE/NYG Un 34 (fits three spots for an Over: 5-9, 10-15, 2-6; a combined 17-30 says "Fade away!")
Pit/Cin Un 34' (5-9 Ov, 2-6 Ov)
Cle/Den Un 35' (5-9 Ov, 2-6 Ov)
NO/Atl Un 42

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-1
Record: 12-10

Hit 3 of 4, missed with Den Un.

NE is a mess, in the media, inside the locker room, and on the field, but my #'s (4-1 spot) says Pats cover. Sometimes ya just have to hold you nose.
Also. another 4-1 spot says SF/Phil game goes Ov.

Buys:
NE (wait; slight chance it gets to +6? Should get to +7 Pats stink so bad)
SF/Phil Ov 47

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 13-11

Hard to (correction, left out the word "not", was supposed to read "hard not to root for") root for an underdog / comeback story like Flacco, but I'm not trusting him on the road in this spot. Not getting beat by a hook either, I see some of the -2' have a little juice added so wait to buy. I don't expect it'll get to +3, but can't hurt to wait and I'll buy it up if I have to.

Using a couple props for some fun too.
I love penalty props, you have action on every play.

Good luck with your play today, and have some fun.

Buys:
Hou +3, -124
Cle/Hou Total Penalties Over 12.5, -125
Mia/KC Total Penalties Under 11.5, -112

 

[boomer1]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 13-11

Hard to root for an underdog / comeback story like Flacco, but I'm not trusting him on the road in this spot. Not getting beat by a hook either, I see some of the -2' have a little juice added so wait to buy. I don't expect it'll get to +3, but can't hurt to wait and I'll buy it up if I have to.

Using a couple props for some fun too.
I love penalty props, you have action on every play.

Good luck with your play today, and have some fun.

Buys:
Hou +3, -124
Cle/Hou Total Penalties Over 12.5, -125
Mia/KC Total Penalties Under 11.5, -112

Are these accepted penalties, or just flags thrown?

 

[lostinamerica]

Every Box Score only tracks accepted penalties. I can't believe there is some wager that tracks penalty flags thrown unless it is clearly specified in the wager description.

But your question sparked my curiosity about offsetting penalties. From what I read, the down is replayed and the penalties are not enforced. This means that both teams are essentially "penalized" for their infractions, but are ignored in the "counted" penalties.

GL

 

[RBD]

Are these accepted penalties, or just flags thrown?

Yes, accepted only.

Big games in the postseason don't affect KC, experienced and well coached, they're good for maybe 3-4 on average, looking for the same today to stay under the number.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 14-13

Hit the game, missed both props.

These props are not the same $ as sides or totals, just small money, fun stuff.
Penalties avg per game: Phil 5' TB 6, so the # 11' is dead on, hoping a little first game playoff jitters gives me an extra false start or two.
Shortest TD Un 1', expecting at least one of the stupidly named Brotherly Shove.
A pass interference penalty in the end zone would be nice, helps both of these props.

Buys:
Phil/TB penalties Ov 11' -125
Phil/TB shortest TD Un 1' -141
Gainwell receptions Ov 1' -121
Otton Ov 24' yds -124
Phil/TB Ov 36/SF -3; -122

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2
Record: 16-15

Missed the penalty prop by a hook and I didn't get the Philly shove I was looking for to hit the shortest TD prop,
but I nailed Otton Ov 24' as he put up 89, and slipped by with Gainwell who had 2 receptions. Pushed on the teaser.

Bought two early this week, both penalty props Over.
My prop bets are usually for fun/action and are a smaller unit size than my sides or toals, but for these two I'm using a standard size bet as I like the numbers and like the odds for a split, worst case.

KC/Bal Ov 11', -120

The number is tight, and I like to avoid Overs on KC games because Andy runs a disciplined squad who usually put up low numbers, but with the extra pressure and hype on this game I'm looking for 1-2 more illegal motion penalties and/or offensive holding calls than usual (LY's Conference Champioship games saw 15 total penalties in SF/Phil and 13 in Cin/KC, both higher than this year's numbers.)

The 11' is equal to the sum of the avg penalties per game for both teams, no edge there.
Came here to share my thoughts/picks and saw T's thread (thanks T) so let's look at that.
Last time Smith and crew saw Bal they tagged them with 6 penalties in a game that saw 11 total.
Last time they saw KC they tagged them with 7, in a game that saw 14 total penalties.
That 'Smith" avg (Bal 6, KC 7) gets a W with the 11' in this one.

Smith crew avg penalties per game this season: 12, again a hook above the # in this game.

LY in the Conf. Champ game KC had only 4 penalties, which doesn't help my case here.
But that was in the friendly confines of Arrowhead. Which leads me to my fav stat:
Guess which stadium saw the most delay of game and false start penalties by the visiting team this year?
Yup - M&T Bank, home of the Ravens.
This adds fuel to my thinking that in the Conf Champ atmosphere I'll get that 1-2 more illegal motion/holding penalties than usual.


Det/SF -Ov 10', -120

I like this spot even more than KC/Bal.
Det avg pen per game: 5.5
SF avg pen per gm: 5.9

A conference final with a number that's a full pt higher than their season averages? I'll bite.

In their two postseason games Det performed above avg, with just 3 vs TB and 5 vs LAR.
Thats a combined 8, avg of 4, which is less than the # I need from them this week.
But those were home games.
Det avg pen @ Hm: 5; Rd: 8
That's an avg of 3 more when facing Rd atmosphere, which can only be magnified in a conference championship game.
So, I like my odds that Det will get to the number I need.

SF averages 5' pen per gm @ Hm.
At Hm against GB last week the Niners got tagged for 6 penalties. If I get a similar number to that in this one - which shouldn't be difficult, it's their season avg - and I can get the number I need from them to reach the total of 11 I need.

Det/SF has Blakeman's crew, who avg'd 11 penalties per game this season, just what I need in this one.
His Det game had 9 and his SF game had 13; avg 11, again, the same number I need here.

Final stat - LY in the Championship SF had 11 penalties. ELEVEN!
Yes, that was on the Rd, but the RD disdvantage for a team is not an avg of 5 penalties, and even if you removed 5 from that # they still would have 6, which is all I need from them this week.

I'll probably add additional plays on Sunday.
Good luck and have fun with yours this weekend.