nfl plays week #1....

A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
finished up preseason going 11-9...

all plays are 2* unless noted otherwise....


under 39 dallas / tb.....

tb fired their oc late in the preseason so i wonder how effective their offense will be at the start of the season....& with leftwich at qb & a sitting target for a strong dallas pass rush, i expect a conservative game plan by tb....so with tb not having any real game breakers at the receiver position, i look for a lot of cadillac, ward, & graham running the ball & trying to shorten the game & play field position...on the other side of the ball, i think dallas is loaded at running back....with their top 2 wide receivers, williams & austin both being a little dinged up with shoulder & hamstring injuries respectively.....i wouldn't be surprised if dallas features their backs & tightend in this game which will also shorten the game.....in addition with a 1pm starting time the fla. heat also should help keep this game under as well......

play under in game 1 with any home dog that won between 6 & 10 games the previous season vs a non-divisional opponent......

since 1993 the ats record to this system is..... 23-4.......85.2%......

play under - any team where the total is between 35.5 & 42 points (dallas) - in a game involving 2 teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season, in conference games.....

since 1983 the ats record to this system is....... 32-10......76.2%......

i look for dallas looking to get out of tb as quickly & cleanly as possible & be in good shape for their game against the giants next week....


good luck.....
 
E

eeeerock

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 31, 2006
9,050
33
48
Would these stats also apply to Clev/ Minn? As far as Under.
 
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
thanks ripkin...good luck also...

adding...

sf+ 7(120)......

hiring mike singletary was one of the best hirings in all of football & he should have this team turned around shortly....in the 1st half of last season, sf allowed 230 points for 28 ppg...in the 2nd half of the season & after ms became head coach, sf cut their ppg average allowed down to 18 ppg.....i think we will continued to see improvement on both sides of the ball for sf as the season progresses...in addition az. hasn't looked good during the preseason & warner hasn't looked comfortable in the pocket due to the aftermath of hip surgery..also boldin (hamstring) & breaston (dislocated kneecap) has missed most of camp so the timing of the entire az offense is in question...

during this decade the superbowl loser is 2-7 su & 0-9 ats in game 1 of the next season....

sf is 6-0 as divison road dogs of 9 points or less..

in this series the road team is 7-0-1 ats in the last 8games played....

i'll take the rushing dog in this game....


good luck....
 
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
thanks nino...you stay sharp also....


adding....

cin-3.5(115).....

we all know about denver's problems this year...their new qb,orton has a problem in his finger on his throwing hand..status for sunday unknown, his backup, simms has a high ankle sprain....their top receiver's problems are well known & don't know if he will play (i think he will)...in addition there are other injuries to the offense....wideout gaffney (broken thumb), running back moreno (knee) & guard kuper (ankle) are all questionable.......on defense denver ranked last in the afc in 2008 giving up 28 points per game.....they ranked 2nd from the bottom in total defense, allowing 374.6 yards per
game.....this year they have a starting de who has played only 1 game & a nose tackle who hasn't started since 2006....

cin. will be much improved on offense with palmer back at qb....chad johnson & chris henry both have had quiet preseasons & it seems like they are on the same page with the coach & this year they have coles who caught 70 passes last year.........running back benson has had a training camp to get comfortable after coming to cin. last october & should do well against the denver that allowed 146 ypg rushing the ball at 5 ypr.....last year's cin.defense finished 12th in total defense......it was the cin. best defensive rating since 2001......

i hope denver turns things around under their new coach....but it will take time & definitely not this sunday....


good luck...
 
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
adding....

under 44 (115) phil / car.....

play under - any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (phil & car.) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.......

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is.....42-16......72.4%.....

the average total posted in these games was.......45.3.....the average score in these games was: team 19.9, opponent 19.9......total points scored.....39.8......


good luck...
 
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
adding....

under 38(120) wash / giants....

this may be a sucker bet but will bite....

wash. is 0-6 to the under in their last 6 season openers, staying under by an average of 11 ppg....
the average final score in these 6 games has been 13.3-13 ppg....

wash. is 0-7 to the under away with division revenge....

wash. is 0-11-2 to the under as a single-digit road dog vs. a divisional opponent when they face a non-divisional opponent the next game...they were 0-5 to the under last year & stayed under by a 15.2 ppg....

wash. is 0-9 to the under on the road vs. a divisional oppoent before playing at home....

since 2000 these 2 teams are 0-9 to the under when they play at giants....

good luck....
 
Last edited:
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
hey ba..

good seeing you....good luck also...


adding...

under 48(120) buff / n.e.....

play under - any team against the total (ne) - in conference games, first month of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won 4 or more of their last 5 games........

over the last 10 seasons the system's record is......28-8......77.8%......

the average total posted in these games was.......39.4.....the average score in these games was......team 19.4, opponent 14.6.....total points scored.....34......he number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21....58.3% of all games......

good luck...
 
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
adding....

under 47(120) sf / az.....

play under on divisional games on the opening weekend if the total is over 45 & the game is not on the first thurs......

since 2001 the over / under is 3-21(87.5%) to the under....& since 2006 the system is 0-6 to the under...

play under in the sf / az & buff / ne games....


good luck....
 
Last edited:
A

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
probably my final play for sunday....

seattle-7(120)......

i am not crazy about laying this many points but feel that the seahwaks are just too good a bet to pass up....

the rams qb, bulger only had 4 preseason pass attempts before breaking his pinkie finger on his throwing hand & he now is trying to learn a form of the phil. style west coast offense which he has never run before...i can't see why this doesn't cause problems for the rams offense...in addition the rams allowed 45 qb sacks last year......last year on defense the rams allowed 465 points last year & were outscored by more than 14 ppg...only detroit was worse....

on the other hand most of seattle's problems last year was due to injury, especially at qb & wr....this year hasselback is healthy & this year they are deep at the receiver position....

seattle has beaten the rams 8 straight times, covering the last 4 meetings with an average margin of victory of 17 ppg at home....

since 1995 the rams are 0-9 ats as a dog vs. any team that has beaten them at least 6 straight times....

the rams is 3-9 ats in last 12 in division play & is 1-7-1 in the last 9 season openers.....

seattle is 8-4 ats in last 12 in divison play.....

play against any true rookie head coach (rams) vs a divisional opponent in the first 2 weeks of the season.....

since 2000 the ats record for this system is.....17-4-2.....80.9%....


good luck....
 
M

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
AR182 said:
adding....

under 44 (115) phil / car.....
Click to expand...

[Since 1989, as always], League: 8-22 under (Av. total 45.2...av. score 40.0) home (-3 to +3) inside Conf, with total 42.5+, in week 1. [Caro]

1-14 under since 2003.

Tends to support the idea. :mj06:

:director: BOL AR. :toast:
 
F

FirstnGoal

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,803
2
0
I'm not much of a total player but the ones you played look pretty good.


Good Luck this season!
 
kneifl

kneifl

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2001
9,138
95
48
50
Virginia
www.tradewithjon.com
AR182 said:
adding....

under 44 (115) phil / car.....

play under - any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (phil & car.) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.......

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is.....42-16......72.4%.....

the average total posted in these games was.......45.3.....the average score in these games was: team 19.9, opponent 19.9......total points scored.....39.8......


good luck...
Click to expand...

Easiest under on the entire card. This game won't break 40 pts. Good luck this season Al!

kneifl
 
Mully

Mully

Is Blessed
Forum Member
Nov 7, 2004
5,619
31
0
53
gl ar, SF my strongest play for the week! Let's cash togeather!
 
autt_4

autt_4

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 29, 2005
646
0
0
Work
Very interesting AR thank you for dropping some knowledge on me. Good luck this season!

Thought on the Giants?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top