NFL Week 9

Bombs

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Will update record.

4* Jets -137
4* Jets 2 -114
4.5* Jets/Texans under 43 -109
 

Bombs

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2* Jets 2h -3.5 -110

These last 12 days have been unreal. Going to turn soon in a big way.
 

Bombs

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Other leans no action yet: Titans, Ravens, Giants
Will have Packers, waiting for Love in/out and/or +3. Playing them whether he goes or not.
 
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Bombs

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5* Packers +3 -122
2* Titans -3 -119
3* Dolphins +6.5 -113
3* Ravens -8.5 -105
 

Bombs

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3* Vikings -5 -108

Taking a little off this. 5 pt final is also a plausible victory margin if it goes to 11, then TD with missed 2 pt.
 
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Bombs

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7.5* Chiefs -8.5 -105

This idea that the public bets on the chiefs is nonsense. It’s quite the opposite as the public bets against the chiefs every week due to general desire to root for the underdog and cheer against the - at this point - disliked two time champion. In addition, the chiefs have a relatively painful pretty clunky offense. This is reflected in consensus sites that show numbers less than 50 percent on chiefs which verifies the above points. Less than 50 percent on a favorite indicates an ugly favorite.

The reason to bet on the chiefs is the same every week. They dominate the LOS particularly the chiefs d line vs opposing o line. In this matchup, they get baker mayfield who has a long history of being horrendous vs pressure and worse vs complicated (non man to man) schemes. Throw in no Evans and no Godwin and who is baker going to throw to? It’s a similar setup to when they played the saints on mnf, might even be more exaggerated this time.

I’m not a chiefs fan, this is just being realistic. They grind the shit out of teams then make everyone bitch if they get any calls. Instead of focusing on some conspiracy if you think that’s a real effect just bet into it.
 

Plegacy

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7.5* Chiefs -8.5 -105

This idea that the public bets on the chiefs is nonsense. It’s quite the opposite as the public bets against the chiefs every week due to general desire to root for the underdog and cheer against the - at this point - disliked two time champion. In addition, the chiefs have a relatively painful pretty clunky offense. This is reflected in consensus sites that show numbers less than 50 percent on chiefs which verifies the above points. Less than 50 percent on a favorite indicates an ugly favorite.

The reason to bet on the chiefs is the same every week. They dominate the LOS particularly the chiefs d line vs opposing o line. In this matchup, they get baker mayfield who has a long history of being horrendous vs pressure and worse vs complicated (non man to man) schemes. Throw in no Evans and no Godwin and who is baker going to throw to? It’s a similar setup to when they played the saints on mnf, might even be more exaggerated this time.

I’m not a chiefs fan, this is just being realistic. They grind the shit out of teams then make everyone bitch if they get any calls. Instead of focusing on some conspiracy if you think that’s a real effect just bet into it.
Nice write up
 

Bombs

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I get it.

How do you feel about my team totals?

DIdn't see this. For sure Bucs correlated with TT over and game over. Chiefs clunky offense they only win/cover if it was low scoring and defense dominates.
 
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