Nissan Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Jay Haas to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ SkyBet
Unusually going for three selections at place-only odds and not because Tiger or Vijay are in the field. Tiger Woods does not play as well on par-71 tracks and Vijay Singh does not have a particularly good around this course either. Rather, these are three players who get themselves into contention a great deal, but without winning too often. Haas had seven top-5 finishes in 25 starts last year and one from three this year (though had he holed his short putt on the last hole at Torrey Pines, he would have secured another one last week), so odds of 16/1 look good value. Add in the fact that it is players who have a lot of experience rather than power who play well here and Haas does look a decent proposition to contend again this week.

Stewart Cink to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ SkyBet
Surprisingly large odds for a player who led last week's event after 36 holes and then again early in the final round. He is not good under final round pressure so place-only is definitely the way to go. He is clearly in good form following his 14th place finish in the FBR Open and his strong challenge last week and he returns to a course on which he has played well: three top-20 finishes in the last four years, including 5th in 2000. As with Haas, there is value at this price.

Nick Price to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Paddy Power
A year ago, Price finished 4th in the Dimension Data Pro-Am and then finished 3rd here; this year he has opened his 2004 campaign with 2nd in the Dimension Data Pro-Am and could certainly earn a repeat of last year on this course that suits his game. He does tend to play better in the first half of the season these days and he has admitted in interview this year that he was tending to go through the motions as the season wore on, but that he has re-dedicated himself to being as competitive as possible again. Having finished in the top-5 in his first eleven starts on the PGA Tour last year, these do look short odds if he does have that same drive and he is playing on a course that rewards shot-makers.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Made note last year that high % of top finishers rated high in scrambling stats mainly on account of small greens to my thinking.
While not that many events so far this year here are some that rank in top 35 this year and last year.
Haas-Kelly-Riley-Sluman-Cink-Weir-Triplett

With exception of Sluman with low in the money ratio,they all look like likely prospects here IMHO.

Agree with Stan on Tiger also. Amazing he has never won here on his closest thing to home course. Once again last week he was 11 under on par fives and 3 over on the others which would point to ball striking not up to par.Getting up and down out of sand only once in 6 opportunities not encouraging either.Maybe he's working out too much----in bed

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Allenby 50-1 (0.75ew)

 

[lal2000]

Anybody have any news on Robert Gamez - hasn't played since he missed the cut at the FBR?

And what about amateur Nick Flanagan - is he playing this weekend?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Neither listed in field and currently looks like 3 spots vacant and looks like one of late wd's is Riley. Knocks out 3 matches and outright already wagered---probably fortunately. Was wanting to give CA boy Duffy a look on place outrights so will get opp as fill in now.
Was happy to see it was Riley out and not a coupled I faded in matches that I feared would be wd's.

 

[He Hate Me]

WE are expecting some bad weather, this week. " The Riv" may turn into a quagmire, we dont get much roll here anyway, and with it being damp, may go LCP like at Pebble. 18 has some added length this year.

Im going with my UCLA Bruins

Scott Mccarron - Has he not won here before?

Duffy Waldorf-
Corey Pavin- Gutty Little Bruin has won here more than once, I know he went nose to nose and toes to toes with Boom Boom back to back in the 90's.

With the Postage stamp putting surfaces and the kakuya grass, mid irons and length are important.

Aussies do well here, because they are use to the Eucalyptis trees and the Kakuya grass.

Elk won pga champ here. Appelby and Allenby also tough.

Tiger always gets punked here and has a hard time breaking 70, mainly because we dont have lots of par 5's, and even then not reachable usually. Tiger is just another golfer if you take away the Par 5's.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 pts):

Jay Haas to beat Fred Funk -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Funk may have finished in the top-10 in the last two years at Riviera, but he has hardly started the 2004 season in good form: a top-finish of 36th in three events. Haas has finished ahead of him in both their common events and should do so again with such a difference in current form.

Jay Haas to beat Rocco Mediate -118 @ Expekt
With missed cuts and no round under-par in each of his last two events, Mediate should also have concerns about his form. Haas has also finished ahead in both of their two common events this year, but with a 9-2-1 h2h record against Mediate in the past year anyway, this looks to be an advantage that will continue for the Tour veteran.
(also available at WWTS)

Mike Weir to beat Sergio Garcia -130 @ Carib
Weir only needed his putter to defrost and he would resume his form of 2003 and this he has done with top-5 finishes in each of his last two starts. Having also won this event last year, there seem good reason to expect another string performance from the Canadian and that will be more than enough for the re-emerging, but still inconsistent, Spaniard.
(also available at Aces)

 

[lostinamerica]

NOTES:

* * * A very good reminder, Dogs, to regularly review the forum archives for, "some valuable pointers on angles as well as mistakes not to repeat." I see that last year you picked Howell(+105) over Weir in a tournament matchup - I assume that was graded as a push?

* * * A new flavor of the week seemed to be a dominant theme on the PGA Tour in 2002. In 2003, the elite players seemed to reassert themselves on a week to week basis. While the winner that finally emerges each week should be looked at differently than the masses that go wanting, it seems that in 2004, the top contenders and those on the fringes of contention are doing an exceptional job of of getting right back in contention after going close the prior week - Duffy Waldorf and Harrison Frazar certainly turned the trick. Luke Donald folded up like the laundry at Pebble Beach and then came back smoking. The same theme also seems to be creeping in on the European side (Jacquelin, Bjorn, Fowler, etc . . .) Is some of this a consequence of Tiger raising the bar and these guys responding with better conditioning, sport psychologists, swing coaches and a greater work ethic? Does great equipment and better seasoning (i.e., Nationwide Tour, college programs, global influx) play a role? This too shall pass, but it's a theme until it runs its course . . . And speaking of the winner getting a different look, in my research I have rarely stumbled across a jewel like the column on Vijay's cool and laid back press conference prior to Buick - I wish I had the link. That press conference screamed, "I'll be out of my grinding mode and walking with a big head until I get slapped silly this week." That brain fart was a gift that I turned into an easy $20, but it should have been about five times that.

* * * I think the U.S.G.A. wisely chose Torrey Pines over Riviera for the 2008 U.S. Open. Riviera seems to have much more of a claustrophobic feel that bottles up a lot of players, not that that's necessarily a bad thing. With small greens and fewer bailouts and an emphasis on shotmaking, my impression from last year was that bad form was exposed and that scrambling was not a ticket to the top. Yes, the conditions were tough the first day, and I recall the course had plenty of fire from hard and fast conditions that showed some brutal spots to avoid with your misses, but I was a little surprised to compare my recollection with DTB's observation on scrambling being a key to success. Maybe it was a circumstance of good golf that produced fewer scrambling situations and scrambling from the right spot that was needed.

* * * FWIW : Olin Browne, Angel Cabrera, Per-Ulrik Johansson, Hirofumi Miyase, Kevin Na, Phillip Price, Eduardo Romero and Lee Westwood received sponsor's exemptions . . . Mathias Gronberg, the first alternate, has had quite a week already. He got in the Nissan Open when Marco Dawson withdrew Sunday, but then was knocked out because Bo Van Pelt finished in the top 10 in the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines on Sunday afternoon. Anyone finishing in the top 10 receives an automatic exemption for the next week, knocking out the last player allowed in. Gronberg was back in, however, when Scott Hoch withdrew Monday. Chris Riley, who lost a playoff to John Daly on Sunday at Torrey Pines, also withdrew Monday. Joe Ogilvie, the second alternate, replaced him . . . Notwithstanding his past performances, I believe Maruyama is a member at Riviera . . .In six events, Ernie Els (Sony) is the only winner this year that did not have at least a share of the lead going into the final round.

*************************************************


OUTRIGHTS:

Mike Weir (12/1) for ) 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
At some point after the 2003 U.S. Open, Weir started losing the ability to bisect fairways when he needed to. Wildness would not be too strong of a term to describe his misses by the time of the PGA at Oak Hill. Finally, in his last two events (Phoenix and Pebble Beach), I have seen flashes of flowing confidence returning on the tee. Bugaboo putting issues have also been taking a turn for the better. It might be that it's all a package deal. Regardless, I look for Weir to position himself for a legitimate shot at defending his title on Sunday.

Jeff Maggert(125/1) for 0.50* e.w @ 5dimes
There was definitely the seed of some good fruit on display at Pebble Beach. When it comes to that little something that can make all the difference when seizing the moment at the crest of a wave, the Maggert profile has a lot of appeal to me. Would seem a classy and stylish fit with the pantheon of great champions.

Stewart Cink(66/1 & 80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365 & 5dimes
Is Cink's game on a solid foundation, so that he just might go back and tweak and feed off the positives? He'll let us know.

That's the short and immediate version from my healthy list of live prospects for this week.

GL

*************************************************

 

[bettingmad]

Adding to LIA's only Els did not share lead after 3 rounds. Of the 6 winners after 2 rounds 5 were in 2nd place and the other was 3rd.... I hope my men start fast!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

LIA. Yep I find archives quite resouceful. Stan sure had good take on matches with 6-0 sweep last year.
Reminded me how bad I miss Oly's in running place.Could look like fool initially dissing Weirs cut record there and recover with inrunning place @ 6/1.

This cold (wet,low 60's with wind) should give some good opps this week. Not good for bad backs, feet ect.
Fading Faxon-Mediate,Toms (timidly on Couples with good bad weather players Bjorn for one).

I find Toms quite interesting and good opt to get bit by the injured player syndrom but I got to give it a go.
Been off for two months played his 1st round a week ago and to top it off did not play well here when healthy shooting only one rd under par out of 14 ave 73.2.
I also find it interesting book has had line up for 2 days on Dimarco (-115)vs him and it has not moved.
Scarey part it has been jinxed book for me with uncanny knack to get 5th place finishes there when they pay top 4(had another with Dunlop couple weeks back). Will try and recover a few lost dollars with this match bet. Also took a little +262 to miss cut as well as +150 on Faxon(bad form-bad wheel and soft terrain)

Note-- fading Garcia and Howell in final rd continues to be goldmine.
They incorrectly have Howells 4th rd stat ave listed at 68.5 but is actually 72.(they only have 2 rds)
However did take it on chin fading Mick early including a -150 4th rd loss with Tiger last week

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit e.w.)

N Fasth - 125-1 @ Victor Chandler
N Price - 80-1 @ Paddy Power
B Jobe - 150-1 Victor Chandler
J Kelly - 66-1 @ Victor Chandler
DiMarco - 50-1 @ Sporting Odds
J Maggert - 125-1 @ Victor Chandler

Also interested in Waldorf, Flesch, Cink & Pernice.

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Jesper Parnevik -160 @ Five Dimes
Parnevik's return to form is great to see, but he is still not the player of the current Masters Champion. He has three top-10 finishes in five events this year and still has finished behind Weir in the last two of their three common events. Weir looks set for a good week and if he does then Parnevik will not be able to stay with him.

David Toms to beat Rory Sabbatini -125 @ WSEX and Intertops [3pts]
Toms is returning from injury and should be backed with caution, but he is still a far better player than Sabbatini who has missed the cut or withdrawn from three of five events, finished 25th of 30 in the Mercedes Championship and only showed any sort of form last week in the Buick Invitational. He is not a player who can put together a good run of form and looks more likely to miss the cut than make it. Even a recuperating Toms can surely beat that.

 

[IE]

901 J. Parnevik -170

902 J. Maggert +160

Investment: J. Maggert +160 (1 Unit) (PN)
===========

 

[IE]

1085 RORY SABBATINI (TOURN) -125
1086 NICLAS FASTH (TOURN) -105

Investment: RORY SABBATINI (TOURN) -125 (1 Unit) (5dimes)

 

[scrub]

One Match-up this week.

Choi over Mccarron -140 280 units

 

[warner]

matchups

matchups

cink 0 mccarron -140
couples 0 sluman -150
choi 0 mccarron -135
a little more juice than im used to but going to give these a shot all mde at trade winds

 

[sports student]

1st round at sportingbet:

Azinger +200 over Howell/O'Meara

zinger is number one right now for the year for avg. before the cut. Hard not to give this a shot at 2-1

 

[c20916]

damn jesper, playing great on his back 9 (the front) then he bogies 8 and 9 to fall to -2, and I took him -.5 over Bjorn, now Bjorn has birdied 15,16,17 to get to -2 now I need him to bogie 18 to get me the win, thanks Jesper. I said to myself all Jesper has to do is par 9 and I should be ok, now I have to sweat it out and will most likely lose. :thefinger :thefinger

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I think I'll bet $1 on Tiger at -120 in 3ball @ SB just to hex into missing cut
---and Duffy---I'll give him a spasm %$#&*^%@

 

[lostinamerica]

I followed your lead, Dogs, and also included the professional whiner in a 3-Ball parlay.

I chose to venture out in the elements with only my best 3-Ball:

Maggert(+162) over Parnevik/Pettersson for 1* @ Bet365

GL