Nissan Open

[Clive]

Terribly early I know, but the homework needs to be done.
Not very happy to hear of all the course changes, but can any of you US guys comment on the amount of rain in CA in recent weeks?

Are conditions likely to be anywhere near as bad as last year?

cheers

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Don't think they've had a lot Clive. Heres a look at this week.
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USCA0821?GO=GO

Nice call on Olazabal. Hope you got down early for the Masters!
Oly dropped his place odds from 14/1 to 10/1 overnite

 

[Ian]

Sorry Clive for snaffling away the 100/1 about Chamblee from Multisports

Course form is there for all to see - improved each year -25/15/10/2. in good form this year with 2 top 15s - I know its early and with only 2 events played but he is 6th in the All Round rankings mainly due to moving from 159th to 11th in GIR and 144th to 4th in putting average,

In all honesty 80/1 is a good price providing those course changes don't......

 

[rio]

Don't know if anyone has read the write up on pga.com but the course change to hole 7 sounds a bit like crazy golf to me. Not sure that they had to make so many changes at once. Riviera was a good enough test as it was and it remains to be seen what the players will genuinely think of it; and will course form be upheld.

Had 100/1 Chamblee go close last year and as has been noted his course form is exceptional. This looks like a tougher field this year but you'd be hard pressed to keep him out of calculations.

Might stick with the steady brigade this week. The likes of Estes, Sluman, Verplank, DiMarco and Triplett are on my mind along with McCarron ( a long straight fader ) who might be suited by the extra few yards they tagged on to the course.

Finally congrats to Clive & Bettingmad for the call on Olly. It's great to watch a true champion show how to close it up at the end.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Now Ian that was obvious
Got one for you so long Surrey is the only carrying a line so far on my outs.
Bob Burns while no pga experience @ Nissan the Cal bred has played course several times and 4 for 4 on cuts this year.One line that surprised me @ Surrey was Chalmers @ 66/1. Thought he'd be 100+.Has good course form and yesterdays 63 might signal he's found the slot again.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Quite true Rio.Wish he could teach Seve trick to contoling driver.
Seve would have to be my all time fav golfer,with Els a close 2nd.
I can picture Seve as if it yesterday walking up to the 18th green at Augusta knowing he wasn't going to break 80.Was wearing navy sweater and pants,white shirt and shoes and head held high.Reminded quite a lot of looking out over the fence at Secretariat after being retired.

 

[Clive]

Cheers Rio!

Good price on Chamblee, Ian. That cheerful chap at Multisports was not going to let me have any 100 after you'd been there!

Quite keen on Jerry Kelly this week...40/1 with Surrey. Has done well here in the past and despite his poor round on Sunday he remains one of the most in-form players around.

Rocco Mediate appeals too, esp at the available 66/1.

And to finish off, have to agree with DTB, both Hills and 365 go 100/1, which seems fair enough.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Just finished catching lines drop @ Camelot and while I feel confident on catching some good ones they just need to come thru this week
Mediate +100 over Calc
K Sutherland +100 over Faxon
Gossett +105 over Elk
Pampling +105 over Lonard

 

[Ian]

Just been doing the same DTB and the one that caught my eye was
Magee over Andrade -120
We will hopefully see a rejuvenated Magee after his recent 3rd against a man who has missed his last 7 cuts

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thats a good one Ian. Didn't look at all of them thouroughly yet just marked ones I liked before they put lines to em and bet all @ +100 or betterthat I had tagged. Got time now for a little reasoning on them.

Agree with Clive Mediate is a live one ranking in top 10 scoring here out of this field where Calc has terrible course form last 5 here.

Sutherland is local boy and has made every cut this year(4) however Fax is also3 of 3.Looking for home cookin.

Gossett also has made every cut this year (4) and Elk only 2 of 4 with best placing 40th.

Pampling has made 4 straight cuts with the worst placing being 32.

Just trying to cash on the cut. Will prob go on Dimarco over Duval but believe I can get better than +105 opened @ Camelot somewhere later.

 

[Sausage Fingers]

All from Camelot, not quick enough to beat DTB.

Mediate over Calcavecchia -105

Estes over Howell +100

McCarron over Allenby +100

Sutherland over Faxon -105

 

[steved]

Anyone got any opinions on Couples? 2 wins, 3 times second, does he still have the appetite? Interview a couple of weeks ago seem to indicate he did...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Seems every week at least 1 and several times 2, 100/1 odds hit the board. Was looking at 365 100/1 odds and they sure have some possibilities.Gossett,Kuchar,Kendall,Gay and Rollins have made 17 of 18 cuts between them. Sure like their chance better than many at lesser.Might prove to be fun in the future to set up common account there with 4 or 5 guys each picking one 100/1 shot a week.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Found it amuzing reading that Tiger wasn't playing due to "extended illness".Wonder if only 3 par 5's,0 for 7 and 2 missed cuts here contributed to illness. Poor ole Ken Ventura(be glad when he retires this year) won't have to make excuses for him this week.It would not surprise me to see he or Curtis Strange to climb down out of booth and give him a ------- one of these days.
Par 71 could effect Daly this week also.He actually played the par 4's in over par last week and wonder what the personal reasons were that caused Duval's wd in last scheduled event and are they still prominent.

 

[bettingmad]

Anybody know why Billy Mayfair withdrew last week?

 

[Ian]

Right - Hopefully the form will have settled down a little - so dusting down the betting bank and going for a few outrights this week as well as the first matchbet for a while (Magee/Andrade)
Adding to the Chamblee 100/1 with
Daly - WAS 33/1 Centrebet
Beckman 80/1 Bananabet
Senden 125/1 Victor Chandler
and still considering 2 others - if I like the Oly field price I could cover every runner!!
********************

Steved - welcome to some distant corner of a foreign land that is forever England (sorry DTB) - as for Couples - PASS

 

[Clive]

steved

Couldn't put you off Couples IF you can get a decent price...there was some 80 around yesterday, but I've seen as short as 33, which I wouldn't touch with a bargepole! 66 worth a small bet, 80 a decent one, and 100 double your stake!

 

[steved]

thanks and hello! got 66 Couples and Chamblee, has anyone seen better than 28 Estes? Sounds a bit short to me..got some 32 on Betfair, now 31, and expect to lay off before start as Chandlers and others closer to 20's.

 

[bettingmad]

Thanks Rio.

This week I have to fancy Bob Estes the win bet 28/1 Sports.com as only 1/4 first 4 (The 28/1 at W Hill is now 22/1). The each way bet at 25/1 first 6 places Netbetsports

He was 6th here in the 1995 US PGA and 7th in the 1997 Nissan.
Finished last year with 7 consecutive top 10's and this season has mirrored Olazabal.
Average first week (Phoenix missed cut but 72/72 not too bad) then the following week a more promising 5th

Cannot desert Jose Maria at the 28/1 Bet365 1/4 first 5
Back to back's are possible... can remember pulling 2 off before...
Vijay 50/1 US PGA and 33/1 Sprint International in 1998, O'Meara AT & T & Buick Inv in 1997 both in consecutive weeks.

 

[Ian]

BM
Hate to p**s on your Estes fire (that would be a good smilie) but he started the season 10th in Mercedes - still considering backing myself though

 

[bettingmad]

Ian,
You are quite right... when I looked at his form I counted that as his final top 10 for last year!
It is still no detriment.... just mirroring Olly after a shorter break.. weeks 1 to 4.. instead of xmas.

 

[rio]

Clive,

You might want to top up on Rocco and Kelly over at Betfair.

Rio.