Nissan Open

Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

Nick Price to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Boyle
Also siding with Price against Appleby who had shown good form this season until his trans-Pacific flights caught up with him. After finishing 2nd in the ANZ Championship two weeks ago, he missed the cut last week. With two missed cuts and a top-20 finish his three previous visits to Riviera it is not obvious that this week will be much better.

Bob Estes to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Easybets
Estes hasn't missed this event since his first visit in 1991. He can count five top-20 finishes in twelve starts in that time and while he missed the cut in 2000 and 2001, he was again in the top-20 last year. With his very strong start to the season and his impressive greens in regulation stats, he should secure another top-20 this year. That should be enough to beat Sabbatini who has played well this season and did finish 2nd last year, but is a far from consistent player.

Stephen Ames to beat Mark O'Meara -115 @ Five Dimes
Will look to oppose O'Meara again who withdrew after nine holes last week citing back problems. He was forecast to miss his third cut in four starts last week and this week should be his fourth. Despite a record on seven top-20 finishes in seven starts on this course from 1985 to 1997, he did not play here again until 2000 when he missed the cut. Back injury or not, he is not the player he was and should struggle again. Siding with Ames who has made the cut in his two previous visits and in his two starts this year, including a top-10 finish in the Bob Hope Classic.

Fred Couples to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ Boyle
Only one opportunity to oppose Baddeley this week and will do so with a player whose record in this event is surpassed by few. In the 1990s, Couples won this event twice and finished runner-up on three occasions. That may seem a long time ago, but in the past three years here, he has managed two top-10 finishes. He is also in good form having made the cut in each of the last three weeks, improving his finishing position every week to finish 13th in the Buick Invitational last week. Another top-10 finish at Riviera is a distinct possibility. By contrast, Baddeley has never played this course and prevented a run of three consecutive missed cuts when he finished on the cut line last week. He eventually finished 72nd and will do well to beat that finish this week.

Too late to get the +100 on Couples ... nice call DTB ;)
 

lostinamerica

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OUTRIGHTS:

Luke Donald(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Mr. Luke is currently ranked in the PGA Tour stats as No. 2 in par 3 performance, No. 18 in putts per GIR, and No. 12 in final round scoring average, all of which speak to the state of his game. It makes good golf sense to me to look to Riviera as a good spot for a classy player to catch a groove off the tee that matches the rest of their game. A 78 here last year off an opening 68 looks to me like a case of some rookie growing pains. What I see are reasons why such a revered classic should fit like a glove, and that means a large measure of redemption this week is the call. I even think he has an excellent pairing with Hayes and Perks on the fringes of the show behind them.

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/golf/story/0,10069,869192,00.html

Fred Couples(85/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Why ask why? Reasons abound.

Charles Howell III(30/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
He has been hard at work to improve his short game and he should get a fine chance to display some of that here. He can go on the boil. He has all the tools and is about as ambitious as they come, so he surely fancies a crack at the elite field gathered this week for this illustrious championship.

Robert Allenby(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Last week I said that for the time being at least I would rate Appleby as having edged ahead of his chum Allenby as most likely to bust through to the winner?s circle. Well, I take it back for this week, anxiously aware that I have already tempted fate once this week with this being my first go round at having started a tournament thread.

I also gave a close look to McCarron, Clark, Funk, Leonard, Haas, Sluman and Appleby.

MATCHUPS:

(A) Howell(-120) over Garcia (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic
(B) McCarron(-120) over Roberts (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic
(C) Stankowski(-115) over Cink (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
(D) Haas(+150) over Campbell/Johansson (1st Round) for 1* @ Bet365
(E) PARLAY Allenby(+300) over Duval/Montgomerie/Lehman/Riley WITH Faxon(+400) over Furyk/Toms/Garcia/Mediate (Tournament) for 0.50* @ 19/1 @ Bet365

GL
 

warner

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took a 140 loss last week so up 732 for year this week i like
price 0 hoch 300/200
mccarron 0 sabatini 240/200
donald 0 kaye 145/100
price 0 montgomrie 120/100
j leonard 0 estes 110/100
all wagers made at tradewinds or caribe
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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--hmmm too late for me to get Ames @ -115 also Stan.Completely overlooked it 1st time around,now -155:scared

You got me thinking when reviewing your odds at site and Badds listed as +100 if I might have read it backwards being new book and all but it was correct.

Event Selection Date Time
Nissan Open - Baddeley v Couples Couples Thursday, February 20, 2003 10:00

Bet Type Bet Amount Price Payout
Straight bet on above selection $ 50 2 100.00
Status
Date
Time

Pending
Tuesday, February 18, 2003
10:21

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Been waiting for challenge to go after Tiger and this looks as good as any.Will play a 1st rd @ $plays
Love+230 over Woods

Was really looking to get some strokes @ Wsex but they pair Tiger in 1st rd with ,who else,Duval:( Really stepping out on a limb there.
One thing about these odds you get vs Tiger you don't have to win but one out of 3 to make money.--and I am strongly opinionated on his dislike for par 70/71 layouts. This is his home course and he has never won in 7 attempts. I doubt if there is any tournament he has played that many times without a win.
Also he and Love have 2 tournaments in common here at Riviera in past 5 years and Love has beaten him by 3 and tied in 1st rd.
Given odds and player will prob take shot at him in 2nd and especially 3rd rd where Tiger ranked 50th in scoring ave in 2002.
It is quite amazing that Tigers final rd scoring ave was his lowest in 2002 @ 67.71 /3rd rd 70.41/before the cut 69!
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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Not a bad idea LIA. I might look into some 3ball combos keying the Tiger 3ball.
Despite his shooting 1 over after seeing how tough its playing yesterday I think his chances of winning here has improved drastically.While they have him listed as hitting 85% GIR, I question that, you won't see him taking 34 putts often--and Duval rds was obsene chipping in from everywhere,skulling shots hitting flag stick and dropping in.Tossing the Nike driver (yes Phil) in favor of Calloway this week has shown no improvement in fairways hit. Will bee interesting if he and Badds can match their 24 putts per rd. Was looking to oppose both but seems that matched em with each other:rolleyes:
 

Stanley

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Mid-point update:

Price/Donald WON by 12
Price/McCarron WON by 11
Price/Appleby WON by 12
Estes/Sabbatini WON by 6
Ames/O'Meara WON by 8
Couples/Baddeley Trails by 2

Love 56th
DiMarco mc
Mediate 56th

Great position with the matchups at the cut: five decided and five winners. Still time for Couples to catch Baddeley as well, though he is more likely to do that than the two remaining outright selections make up the six-shot deficit to secure the top-5 finish.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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at the cut 72 holes 2-3
Price/Lehman win
Kelly/Monty Monty win
Riley/Duval loss
Lehman/Lonard loss
Faxon/Lonard loss
remaining 72 holes
Howell/Weir 4up
Allenby/Duval 2 down
Furyk/Weir 4 down
Couples Badds 2down.
Outrights Toms cut-Price 2nd

Bad move opposing Lonard.Should learn some day on opposing injured player,Quite a reversal this week of year long fades of Beem,Badds and Duval all sitting in top 10 and Toms,Dimarco and Riley all cut by wide margins.
2002 cut %'s angle been horrid past 2 weeks.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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3rd all @ Oly

adding outrights to place
Weir 6/1
Allenby 10/1

72 hole cont
Choi -105 over Duval all square
Clarke -110 over Flesch currently 1 down
Ames +115 over Beem 1down
Allenby +100 over Funk 2down

Funk finally had rabbitts foot abate yesterday with a still respectable 29 putts,Duval has hit less than 40% of fairways and about 50% of greens past 2 days.If that continues it will catch up.
Got Clarke as a 2 tier rated better player and hoping Beem recaptures prior form after hot rd yesterday.

In outrights Allenby not but a few back from place and has won here before. Weir last 3 were all cuts as noted prior,however with 2 match bets opposing him, nothing like making him an outright to make him drop like a rock:)
 

lostinamerica

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Me and my VCR missed all the action on Friday. Consequently, I?m quite leery about the foundation that is under any picks I make today.

Matchups:

Stephen Ames(-3)(+115) over Rich Beem(-4) (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Liking these . . .

Smyth(-102) over Kite (3rd round) for 1* @ 5dimes
Funk(-102) over Duval (4th round) for 1* @ 5dimes
Weir(+125) over (Funk/Waldorf) (4th round) for 1* @ Bet365
Allenby(-105) over Furyk (4th round) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL
 

Stanley

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Final update:

Matchups: 6-0-0; +6.00 units

Couples/Baddeley WON by 5

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Love 49th
Mediate 55th

Great result on the matchups, though Baddeley made we sweat for the sweep. Pity about the outrights, they were never in the hunt, but with Weir and Price both higher in my ratings than DiMarco or Mediate, at least the problem was just selection and not methods.

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 29-9; +11.54 units
Outrights: 5-15; +7.32 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 69-43; +17.55 units
Outrights: 16-46; +24.60 units
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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finals remaining 72 holes and Oly cont 3-3-2
Howell/Weir push
Allenby Duval push
Furyk/Weir loss
Couples/Badds win
oly cont
Choi/Duval win
Clarke/Flesch win
Ames/Beem loss
Allenby/Funk loss

matches week 5-7-2 -2.44 units
ytd 41-36 +2.17 units

Outrights Toms cut Allenby down the ladder-Weir 1st-Price 3rd
Finally get a couple to the house and into black for year.
Outrights week +17 units ytd +1 unit

Was nice tourny to watch for a change as got to see some others play as Tiger plays exactly to cue going 4 over in rds 1&3. It was a damn shame books would offer nothing except steady diet of Love and Duval as opponents and could not exploit it.Finally found way to hit an outright,look at worse possible scenerio Murph can put on you.
Weir making 7 shot swing on Howell cost me a lot more than it made me in more ways in one. I am becoming more superstitious as time goes on. When I get home and have time I will do a post on "posting jink" with supporting logs from books.Its amazing!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
an observation for future tourneys (which may seem obvious)is importance of scrambling stats on small firm greens. 4 of top eight finishers rank high in 2002 stats. woods 1st-Price 4th-Mattiace 9th-Funk 21st.
 
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