Want to soften my position just a tad. First, I was obviously thinking ATS (-110) when I said dogs had had many down years. They've only had 4 outright sub-50% years (though 3 of the 4 were substantially below 50%, i.e., big losers for the system). But the years when they hit above 50% but lost ATS would have produced only tiny profits.
Second, contrary to what I said above, I think you'd win more than you'd lose in unrealized investment income, but again, not by much. There are 248 games a year, and you'll be betting $500 on each, for a total theoretical action of $124,000. Given the ties (less action), the unfavorable dog prices, etc, you'll win about 1% of that, or $1240 each year. As Skinar points out, you'll need to keep about $15,000 on hand -- $7500 to put in play each week, on which you'll be earning nothing at all, and another $7500 in reserve to cover bad swings. You might be able to earn a little on this second $7500, in years where the dogs have a hot run early. So, assuming the traditional 10% ROI, you'd be giving up about $1200 per year. You only need your BR for the 6 months of the football season, though, so your loss of investment income might amount to $600. That leaves you with $640 per year profit, less any transfer costs (you'll be moving money in and out of your account a *lot*), so let's say a nice even $500 per year profit. One bet won after making 248 bets.
I haven't even mentioned the likelihood of regression to the mean -- dogs have been on a hot run the lasgt few years -- or whether you'll have the nerve to keep firing when you get torched a few weeks in a row. Technically, you've found a winning system, which I should have acknowledged, but I still don't think it's practical.
Second, contrary to what I said above, I think you'd win more than you'd lose in unrealized investment income, but again, not by much. There are 248 games a year, and you'll be betting $500 on each, for a total theoretical action of $124,000. Given the ties (less action), the unfavorable dog prices, etc, you'll win about 1% of that, or $1240 each year. As Skinar points out, you'll need to keep about $15,000 on hand -- $7500 to put in play each week, on which you'll be earning nothing at all, and another $7500 in reserve to cover bad swings. You might be able to earn a little on this second $7500, in years where the dogs have a hot run early. So, assuming the traditional 10% ROI, you'd be giving up about $1200 per year. You only need your BR for the 6 months of the football season, though, so your loss of investment income might amount to $600. That leaves you with $640 per year profit, less any transfer costs (you'll be moving money in and out of your account a *lot*), so let's say a nice even $500 per year profit. One bet won after making 248 bets.
I haven't even mentioned the likelihood of regression to the mean -- dogs have been on a hot run the lasgt few years -- or whether you'll have the nerve to keep firing when you get torched a few weeks in a row. Technically, you've found a winning system, which I should have acknowledged, but I still don't think it's practical.
