Hi all,
Not-too-frequent poster here, but here's my 2c worth....
I don't want to be too harsh here, I like what Nolan has to say most times, but when I read that Cincy Wheel thing I really couldn't believe it. 26 seperate teasers keyed on one team? I think this is terrible advice to give anyone. That sounds like what my sports-lottery buddies do every week, bet a million parlays all keying on one team....and they go 10 and 1 on their picks and lose every dime they bet. The math does not add up.
Assuming "1 unit" bet per teaser (I know less than a regular bet was recommended, but for simplicity sake I'm still going to call it "1 unit")...
Scenario A:
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Cinci DOES cover the 12 pts, so all the teasers are alive. Right away at least 13 of your 26 tickets MUST win, since you can't lose both sides of any game. In the worst case possibility, none of the games is close and that's all you win....and you're down 1.3 units total. You need just one more win to be up 0.8 units...and each additional win is worth another 2.1 unit swing in your favor....
Scenario B:
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The possibility that Cinci could actually fail to cover the tease was pretty much ignored. This is a rather important factor to consider!!
If Cinci doesn't cover, you lose ALL 26 tickets for a WHOPPING 28.6 UNIT LOSS. Holy %$(@#!!
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The really important part of all this is where it's stated: "67.4 percent of ALL teams that get the 6-point bonus cover that spread. 2 percent end up as ties 30.6 percent end as losses.". I can't verify if it's true or not, but this 67.4% is a deceptive statistic. Remember, it CAN'T be less than 50%, because one half of every game MUST win.
So it's not like you should expect to have 9 double winners out of the 13 other games (9/13 would be just over 67%, for a total of 22/26 and +17.6 units profit). In reality you should expect 17 or 18 winners out of 26 teams (not that amazing considering 13 of those 17 or 18 are already guaranteed). A record of 18-8 = +9.2 units profit; a record of 17-9 = +7.1 units profit. So when you win, you end up ahead by an average of 8.2 units.
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Ok, using that key 67% statement above, if you did this 10 times, you'd have the keyed team covering their wager 7 times.
In those 7 times where the keyed team covers, your total profit is (8.2 units on average won x 7 wins) = +57.4 units.
In those 3 times where the keyed team DOESN'T cover, your total losses are (28.6 units lost x 3 losses) = -85.8 units.
Net loss = -28.4 units!
A unit can be whatever amount you want, it still adds up to throwing away a lot of cash!
[This message has been edited by GM (edited 10-05-2001).]
