nolan's picks-comments

[pepin46]

THESE ARE NOLAN'S PICKS AND COMMENTS AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MY COMMENTS WILL FOLLOW IN A REPLY.


X - DENVER / SEATTLE OVER 44 (Recommended Tuesday)

This play was first posted on Tuesday. The stunning QB decision made by Mike Holmgren caused me to change the recommendation. I'm mortified that Holmgren is benching Trent Dilfer after the upset win against Jacksonville and bringing back Hasselbeck. Who could have seen that coming?



X - DENVER / SEATTLE UNDER 44 (Recommended Thursday)

I'm eating the vig. This is what you call a STOP LOSS bet based solely on the Hasselbeck news. Having Hasselbeck start at QB and expecting the OVER to cash is about like putting all your money in a Demi Moore movie. Dump it, and get out now before it's too late!



PHOENIX +7 vs. CHICAGO (Recommended Tuesday)

This line is wrong by at least a couple of points. I'd make the line at Chicago -4.5. Getting "7" this means Chicago needs two scores to cover. I'm jumping on this immediately, because the line is likely going to drop to 6.5, maybe lower. If it rains in Chicago, I love the Cardinals no matter what the line.


NEW ORLEANS -5 vs. CAROLINA (Recommended Wednesday)

We risk the possibility that late money will flow in on the Saints and that could move the line up to -6. I believe the reasons to support New Orleans are absolutely overwhelming in this game. If I did BEST BETS, this would be a BEST BET.

PITT / KC UNDER 36 (Recommended Thursday)

I missed this play early in the week, when the total initially came out at 37.5. I expect the total to drop even lower, perhaps to 35 or even 34.5 I see nothing which indicates either team will score many points in this game.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 vs. OAKLAND (Recommended Thursday)

I considered waiting until game time, but I don't think the line will drop to -3 on this game. Reasons are compelling enough to make this play on Indy now -- and since there are no injury questions nor weather concerns, I think there's good reason to jump on the Colts at this price.

SAN DIEGO -3 (-120) vs. NWE (Recommended Thursday)

When this line dropped to -3, I jumped on it immediately. Chargers are superior in almost every facet of the game versus New England. Following the upset loss in Cleveland, you may not find San Diego at this low a price again this season. Go for the value.

MIAMI / NY JETS UNDER 37.5 (Recommended Thursday)

I love the half-point on the 37. This game has 20-17 written all over it.

NEW ORLEANS / CARL UNDER 39.5 (Recommended Friday)

I don't think the news is out yet about the bad field conditions in Charlotte. The entire field was replaced with new sod last week. This new surface may slow things down a bit -- especially the Panthers who could have serious trouble scoring points in this game against the best defense they have faced this season. RB Ricky Williams ran 30 times last week, and he'll be run even more here. This game should go UNDER 38.5 and I expect the total will drop near game time.

BALTIMORE / GREEN BAY OVER 34 (Recommended Friday)

I waited for the total to drop to 34 before making my play. Once that number arrived on Friday morning, I immediately jumped on the OVER. I expect lots of passing by both teams in this game -- and at least one team to reach 24+ points. Lots of high-percentage passing means completions -- and both veteran quarterbacks are capable of producing points here.





[This message has been edited by pepin46 (edited 10-11-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

Good stuff, Pepin.

 

[pepin46]

denver over, denver under, is there a prop for hitting the total right at 44? i find it hard to choose a side here, much less guess a total, although they have played some wild ones. pass

i do agree strongly on n.o., pitt under and green bay over, s.d.

n.o. has enough precedent of dominating carol, and circumstances are no different.
pitt/kc under: do you have to think this one over (twice)?
balt/green bay-can't see why nolan chose the over and not baltimore. seems like they go together. a natural.
san diego must pull the trigger here and stop fiddling. what a sweet spot and too bad for n.e., whom he knows well. a rout.

strongly disagree on jets under. jets are running wild, scoring and allowing scores. fiedler may do a st louis on them here. miami will open it up when given the opportunity, and the jets seem to be very accomodating right now. looking for a 31-17 game or thereabouts, and miami to cover, of course.

indy-have played a couple of teasers that included oakland. can't really back indy here. there is too much precedent of blown leads, including a previous loss to oakland in their own turf.

i will add the following plays:

sf/atl
atlanta is hurting bad, and we now know that they miss anderson in a big way, and chandler is up in the air. s.f. gave them plenty of opportunity in their previous game, and atlanta could not cash in. even if sf gave them more opportunities, they are in a worse position now. give the 3 and be happy.

baltimore

no previous recent games here, but the tampa film will give baltimore more than enough to handle g.b. baltimore won't forgive interceptions. field position and forced throws will win this one for balt.

giants/st louis

what a bummer at giants stadium, not able to score a td vs. wash until the 4th quarter. this is not the way you win games. only way the giants cover here is if st louis builds up a lead and then put their "b" squad in.

indy over. yes, they blew it. they should have come in at 55 or 56. grab it while it is still 53. this is a 3 point game either way, but no way 28-25, 31-22, 30-23. try 31-27, 35-31 or thereabouts.


pep

p.s. the first page is an extract of nolan's picks; the above are my comments.

[This message has been edited by pepin46 (edited 10-11-2001).]

 

[kosar]

Originally posted by Never Caught Up:
Good stuff, Pepin.

Ummm... NCU, all pepin had done at that point was copy and paste Nolan's comments. I guess that qualifies as 'good stuff' to some.

 

[genosays]

Agree with Nolan's KC/Pitt under play. You know Steelers will run the ball all day and Trent Green hasn't shown alot yet in KC (besides Washington game). Early weather report calls for windy day Sunday here in KC which could make it hard to complete passes?

 

[Helmet Head]

I was able to get Arizona at +7.5. With the Bears defense much improved I see a low scoring game. Plummer has again faltered. However, I believe that Arizona will keep it close. I expect Boston to have a good day. That is if Plummer can get him the ball.

With Stewart and Green in control, I expect this game to go UNDER 39.5.

How can you pass on the Saints -5? Their defense is good and Rickey should be able to run against the Carolina defense. I expect this to be a low scoring game.

Good Luck!

HH

 

[Never Caught Up]

kosar, I hadn't read Nolan's column and was reading it for the first time in Pepins post. Yes, it was in my opinion good stuff.

Gawd!

CYA

NCU

PS I wouldn't say this to anyone else on this forum, but kosar, you really are an asshole.

[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 10-11-2001).]

 

[willypower]

Good Stuff Pepin

I totally agree with your call on Balt and on the unpredictability of the Jets. Indy is very hard to take -3.5 and I agree they don't deserve it. These were my 3 (Nolan disagreement picks as well)

 

[pepin46]

well, i am glad we finally got some input here, never mind the ncu/kosar thing.

does anyone have a strong opinion on the jets totals/game scenario?


pep

 

[SmashMouth]

Pepin That Sf play looks to good to be true, So maybe it is?

------------------
Dawgs are a man's best friend.

 

[pepin46]

they both took a good look at each other in week 1. atlanta had plenty of chances to win the game, but lost in ot. they both have 3 hours of film to look at. what can each team do to improve?

now, without anderson, they are really hurting, and s.f. seems to be slowly getting it together.

s.f. looks like a winner here, giving only a fg.


pep

 

[casper]

NCU don't worry about kosar's comments, most of his are like that. i think he just needs to get laid and that's his problem. he likes to get under people's skin, don't let him do it to you. i respect your opinions NCU i hope you stick around.

pepin, regarding the jets/phins game. the total is a mystery to me at this point. i see a ball control game for both teams at this point, but the total seems too close to call. i know the jets have won i think 6 straight vs. miami, but i watched both teams alot this year and don't see the jets pulling one out their ass this time. if i do play this game it will be on miami.

the only play i strongly disagree with is the cards, i really like da bears this weekend. good defense, at home, confident qb, good receivers, and a running game that hasn't shown much yet but i think it will in time. this bears team is good and will continue to show it i think. gl

 

[pepin46]

i did ariz in a teaser at 14 1/2 and feel pretty good with it.

yes, you must recognize chicago's performances, hanging in there with balt, successfully defending vs minny (there was some precedent there), and hammering atlanta in that first half with terrible field position until atlanta broke and chicago sealed it (no anderson made a big diff, not taking anything away from chi).

chicago may not be up completely for this game and ariz got a boost from a sleeping philly, but still hung in there for the win. not too many mistakes, etc.

the line becomes interesting at 7 1/2, as chi needs two scores to beat it. as far as picking one or the other, i think it will be close, but leaning to ariz, and thus the 14.5 teaser (2 tds and a fg). you will need a total breakdown by ariz for those numbers, and i don't think they are in that frame of mind; they are going there for the win.

as far as miami/jets, do you really feel miami is going in to play 123 punt? i think they will strike and fast, setting up the over.

just one of many interesting games this weekend.


pep

 

[willypower]

Hey pep

What do you think of Nolan's ride it all on N O teasers?? I agree N O looks solid, however not at home, on some messed up turf??

Comments

 

[yyz]

FWIW---MIA/NYJ total

One "trend" I see a bunch, (and I don't usually go for trends), is the total in this game goes way over a lot.

I have no idea why, but it is one of the blind bets I make every year. (actually, I make it twice a year!)

In the last 10 meetings of these teams:

23
29
37
41
48
51
59
63
69
77

It doesn't seem to matter if they are defensive teams, or not....the total goes over a lot!

This season, I am bothered by the discrepency of t/o's

Jets +12 Miami -3

The Jets need this game bad, and Miami wants to increase their lead.

This season:

Miami games---total points scored:

40,52,33,54

NYJets games---total points scored:

78,36,13,54

I like this one to be a slug-fest.

Well over the 37 of 37'

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Originally posted by yyz:

One "trend" I see a bunch, (and I don't usually go for trends), is the total in this game goes way over a lot.

In the last 10 meetings of these teams:

23
29
37
41
48
51
59
63
69
77

NOLAN REPLIES: Yes, but look at the trend here. The games have progressively gone lower and lower each game. 59, 51, 48, 41, 37, 29, and 23. The last SEVEN games have sequentially gone lower each time. Forget the 45-44 type of games that these teams used to play in the mid-90s when Dan Marino was QB, both teams have changed their offenses significantly during the last year, or so.

First and foremost my reason for playing the UNDER -- I don't like either OC. Chan Gailey and Paul Hackett are conservative, ball control-based coordinators who don't like to take many risks. Neither throws downfield much (Gailey is starting to open up a bit, however). The Jets offense, in particular, has undergone massive changes since last season. Gone are the days when Testeverde used to throw 60 passes (and four ints.) every game. Don't be fooled by the Buffalo game last week -- the Bills handed New York at least three touchdowns. I also expect the Jets offense to struggle badly against Miami -- which has one of the NFL's best defenses. Keep in mind that this is BY FAR the best defense the Jets have faced all season. Add the fact it's an intense rivalry, and I don't think you are going to see the Jets take a lot of unecessary chances. The Jets' wideouts just don't have the talent to make things happen.

Miami's offense is very average, in my view. I'm still not convinced Jay Fiedler is the answer at QB. Both of these teams have a power running games (Lamar Smith and Curtis Martin -- which means we could see 50 carries between the two backs). 50 carries times 45 seconds per play will eat up 60 percent of the game clock.

The major concern I have and the main argument AGAINST the UNDER is the weakness of the Jets' defense. This unit is very suspect. They have been hammered in 3 out of 4 games. However, given they have faced Indy and SFO, plus the Bills in an all-out, throw every down offense, their stats may be a bit misleading. Against a Dolphins' offense that is a bit more conservative, the Jets are certainly capable of stepping up this week and holding the Dolphins' scoring in the teens.

The key for me to bettign the UNDER is the hook on the 37. If this total was 36.5, I would not touch it. But given the nature of these two offenses, I really do believe there is a strong possiblity this game goes 20-17 or 23-14.

Interesting perspectives, thus far.

-- Nolan Dalla

[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 10-12-2001).]

 

[Bonovox]

I believe the previously posted list of totals isn't in chronological order.

11/00 - 23
10/00 - 77
12/99 - 69
12/99 - 48
12/98 - 37
10/98 - 29
11/97 - 41
10/97 - 51
12/96 - 59
9/96 - 63

 

[pepin46]

interesting debate so far, we even got nolan in.

i did not see the n.o. wheel, but it makes a lot of sense: n.o. has handled carol fairly easy, and now some of us perceive they are near full strength for the remainder of the season, while carol struggles. while the possibilies of a late td or some other unforeseen score by carol exist, the teaser is as good a choice as you will get this week, as all you need is a n.o. win to cash in.

the jets totals:

2 things mainly swayed me to the over:

miami is opening up the score when given the chance. last week vs. n.e. is an example, whereas we would expect them to be satisfied with a 17-10, 20-10 game or so, they opened up the score to 30-10. st louis aside, they also brought out the animal in the titans, of all teams, going way, way over.

the way the jets defense has been playing, you would expect fiedler and co. to find some scoring opportunities and take them. it is precisely the visiting team putting the scoring pressure on that creates overs.

the basis for the under will come if the jets prevent miami from scoring a td in the 1st quarter, and they themselves don't do much scoring, like a couple of field goals. on the opposite side, it is miami taking the lead in scoring, especially in the 1st quarter, that will set off the over. i am expecting the latter.

my game scenario has miami on top by 10 or so at the half, and then sealing it in the 3rd quarter, jets making a comeback attempt in the 4th, with a final around 31-24.


pep

 

[kosar]

Casper,

I really don't need to get laid and that is not a problem of mine. I make love to Betty, my blow-up doll, every night. I'm perpetually spent. Now who looks silly?

NCU,

It's not nice to call people names. I hope that your vacation calms you down a little bit.

 

[casper]

lol kosar that was pretty funny. does betty whisper any winners in your ear on sunday morning?? what does she think about da bears this sunday?? or the hopeless lions?? i'm playing them on sun. and wanted to know her opinions....your opinions would be ok too