PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Dallas by 17
Talk about a team on a mission: the Saints? undertaking this
season has been spectacular. With the stain of ?Bountygate? now
in the rear view mirror and all the pieces back in place, N?Awlins
has emerged as leaders atop the NFC South thanks to a Top
10-ranked offense AND defense. Their mission tonight is to let the
NFL viewing audience know they are back and, more important,
to send a message to the Cowboys that should they meet again
down the road in the playoffs, they are not to be taken lightly. For
openers, the Who Dats have been like money in the bank going
10-1 ATS in non-division games when playing off one loss-exact,
including 6-0 ATS at home. In addition, they are 5-1 ATS, including
3-0 ATS when off a loss, as a host in this series. Meanwhile, the
Cowboys enter on a tidy 3-1 SUATS run ? but it should be noted
they were outstatted in three of the four contests, including last
week?s win over the Vikings. Furthermore, the Saints outgained
the Jets in last week?s loss, making this a neat ?double-inside? out
stat affair. The fact is only Jason Garrett?s 5-0 ATS mark as a dog
of more than 4 points keeps us from totally snapping the rubber
band. The Clincher: Since the 2011 season, the Saints are
13-0 SUATS at home under Sean Payton.
4★ BEST BET
Carolina over SAN FRANCISCO by 6
Our initial observation was that this opening line looked low. Fishy
low, if you get our drift. After all, the mighty Niners own the hottest
hand in the NFC, entering on a 5-0 SUATS run ? albeit against foes
who are 13-28 collectively this season. However, the same can be
said of the 5-3 Panthers, who have reeled off four wins in a row,
while scoring 30 or more points in each game. Granted, Carolina?s
fi ve victims this season are all losing squads, sporting a combined
7-33 record season to date. What really bothers us, though, is San
Fran?s 2-5 ITS (In The Stats) mark in its last seven games. That and
the fact that favorites returning from London have NEVER beat
the spread in these ?sea legs? games, going 0-5 ATS. Compounding
matters, the Panthers have been practically an annuity in this
series, going 11-1 ATS, including 3-0 SUATS the last three games.
Holy mackerel, it all makes sense to us now. The Clincher: The
Panthers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in games versus opponents
off a double-digit spread win the last two seasons.
