Rd 15 early thoughts:
Game 1) NZ Warriors v Northern Eagles, Auckland
Warriors -3.5
Not likely to play this game given my distaste for the predicability of the Warriors. Eagles aren't much better in that respect. Warriors upset the Eagles 24-16 away in rd 2, which gaves some clues to the woefullness of the Eagles after a first-up away win at Newcastle. After two awful performances, Warriors showed some spirit and defence in rd 14 away win v Raiders while the Eagles put an end to the Knights' long unbeaten run. Could be plenty of pts but the $1.50 for over44.5 isn't an appealing price.
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters, Newcastle
Knights $1.95 ML
A little surprising to see the home side which is four pts ahead of Sydney on the table and one that beat them 25-18 away in rd 2 as a small home dog. May be worth investigating further despite last week's loss to the Eagles and the continued absence of Joey Johns. Roosters saw off Wests Tigers in the 2nd half last weekend but are still under-achieving and conceding too many pts.
Total pt line 44.5 sees the Over at $1.65/Under at $2.10
Game 3) Canberra Raiders v Bulldogs, Sydney
Bulldogs -8.5
Bulldogs beat a hot Melbourne Storm team at home but were a tad fortunate; made the most of turnover possessions though. The Raiders were very flat in the loss to the Warriors and still seem to struggle with the coaching situation which has seen Mal Meninga usurped by Matthew Elliott.
Game 4) Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos, Penrith
Panthers +6.5
EXCUSE ME!! Just +6.5!! This is the same Panthers side which conceded 54 v the Eels last weekend - not the first time this season they've conceded 50 either - and convinced me that their minor resurgence was a mirage. Yes, they scored 28 pts and worried the Eels for the first half but their defence is a virtual sieve. Now, with Ryan Girdler in the unfamiliar position of standoff, they're getting just over a converted try from a Broncos side without Gorden Tallis which ran up 50 v the Cowboys last weekend, and the Cowboys are just one pt behind the Panthers in the standings. Yes, the Panthers are at home, but there is no fear factor of their home ground with the current side. Broncos won the corresponding fixture in rd 2 38-22. They opened v the Cowboys at -16.5. Is this set-up really worth 10 pts off Brisbane's line? Can't see much less than the bubonic plague striking the visitors to put me off recommending a play on the Broncos giving the points.
Game 5) Nth Qld Cowboys v Melbourne Storm, Townsville
Cowboys +6.5
Yeah yeah; said it a million times before but the Storm are a totally different team from the one that loss a shocker in rd 2 at home v the Cowboys 28-32. The Cowboys came down to earth with a thump v the Broncos while the Storm should have beaten the Cowboys and will be kicking themselves for their costly errors. Tough call to go for a 2nd consecutive rd fave giving more than a try but favouring that thought at present.
Game 6) West Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons, Leichardt Oval
Tigers +3.5
Tigers should be outclassed here as the Dragons are starting to find some improved form despite the away trip. Home team are a different outfit from the one that won rd 2 26-24 away; no Field, no MacGuiness, no Hopoate! Dragons would have been disappointed with their draw v the Sharks although they showed commendable spirit to come back and get a point.
Game 7) Sharks v Parramatta Eels, Cronulla
Sharks +3.5
Encouraging signs from the Sharks last week on the points-scoring front. Just 8 in the first half v the Dragons but Preston Campbell at halfback cut loose in the second spell as the opponents tired. The Eels ran n 2nd half tries at will v the Panthers but coach Brian Smith was rightly concerned at some awful defending. Should have been working hard on correcting that and the under 44.5 at $2.10 may be worth a wee look.
Back later with plays.
Game 1) NZ Warriors v Northern Eagles, Auckland
Warriors -3.5
Not likely to play this game given my distaste for the predicability of the Warriors. Eagles aren't much better in that respect. Warriors upset the Eagles 24-16 away in rd 2, which gaves some clues to the woefullness of the Eagles after a first-up away win at Newcastle. After two awful performances, Warriors showed some spirit and defence in rd 14 away win v Raiders while the Eagles put an end to the Knights' long unbeaten run. Could be plenty of pts but the $1.50 for over44.5 isn't an appealing price.
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters, Newcastle
Knights $1.95 ML
A little surprising to see the home side which is four pts ahead of Sydney on the table and one that beat them 25-18 away in rd 2 as a small home dog. May be worth investigating further despite last week's loss to the Eagles and the continued absence of Joey Johns. Roosters saw off Wests Tigers in the 2nd half last weekend but are still under-achieving and conceding too many pts.
Total pt line 44.5 sees the Over at $1.65/Under at $2.10
Game 3) Canberra Raiders v Bulldogs, Sydney
Bulldogs -8.5
Bulldogs beat a hot Melbourne Storm team at home but were a tad fortunate; made the most of turnover possessions though. The Raiders were very flat in the loss to the Warriors and still seem to struggle with the coaching situation which has seen Mal Meninga usurped by Matthew Elliott.
Game 4) Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos, Penrith
Panthers +6.5
EXCUSE ME!! Just +6.5!! This is the same Panthers side which conceded 54 v the Eels last weekend - not the first time this season they've conceded 50 either - and convinced me that their minor resurgence was a mirage. Yes, they scored 28 pts and worried the Eels for the first half but their defence is a virtual sieve. Now, with Ryan Girdler in the unfamiliar position of standoff, they're getting just over a converted try from a Broncos side without Gorden Tallis which ran up 50 v the Cowboys last weekend, and the Cowboys are just one pt behind the Panthers in the standings. Yes, the Panthers are at home, but there is no fear factor of their home ground with the current side. Broncos won the corresponding fixture in rd 2 38-22. They opened v the Cowboys at -16.5. Is this set-up really worth 10 pts off Brisbane's line? Can't see much less than the bubonic plague striking the visitors to put me off recommending a play on the Broncos giving the points.
Game 5) Nth Qld Cowboys v Melbourne Storm, Townsville
Cowboys +6.5
Yeah yeah; said it a million times before but the Storm are a totally different team from the one that loss a shocker in rd 2 at home v the Cowboys 28-32. The Cowboys came down to earth with a thump v the Broncos while the Storm should have beaten the Cowboys and will be kicking themselves for their costly errors. Tough call to go for a 2nd consecutive rd fave giving more than a try but favouring that thought at present.
Game 6) West Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons, Leichardt Oval
Tigers +3.5
Tigers should be outclassed here as the Dragons are starting to find some improved form despite the away trip. Home team are a different outfit from the one that won rd 2 26-24 away; no Field, no MacGuiness, no Hopoate! Dragons would have been disappointed with their draw v the Sharks although they showed commendable spirit to come back and get a point.
Game 7) Sharks v Parramatta Eels, Cronulla
Sharks +3.5
Encouraging signs from the Sharks last week on the points-scoring front. Just 8 in the first half v the Dragons but Preston Campbell at halfback cut loose in the second spell as the opponents tired. The Eels ran n 2nd half tries at will v the Panthers but coach Brian Smith was rightly concerned at some awful defending. Should have been working hard on correcting that and the under 44.5 at $2.10 may be worth a wee look.
Back later with plays.
