mac total of year -- toledo rockets over
(contingent on the number being < 145)
considering my other two significant plays in the horizon/mac this year have been up by 17 and 21 at halftime only to stumble in the later stages, maybe the 1h over is the way to go.
gonna be in and out throughout the course of the day, but if for some unexpected reason this total is higher than 145 (which i very highly doubt) then im gonna scale it back to a normal play. but i think we're probably looking at 141 or 142 for the opener, and i expect the game itself to play well into the 150s.
as for the reasoning:
1) its taken until damn near the middle of february but toledo is FINALLY starting to play up to their preseason expectations. theyve won 5 of their L6 and have played themselves into a tie for first in the western side of the conference. its like a collective lightbulb finally went on for these clowns.
2) when toledo was playing like dog shit earlier, they werent getting to the line and they were taking way too many jump shots. its no coincidence that theyve during their 5 of 6 streak, they are getting to the free throw line a lot more, and when they DO get there, they are knocking them down at a very high rate (81.6% as a team the last 5 games)
3) the first meeting between these two was a 70-59 final, but i really dont even consider that worth factoring in all that much because it was akron's first game after losing wood to the season-ending injury. once they adjusted to playing without him, akron ended up scoring 75+ pts in 4 of the next 5 games. last years meeting was 87-79, so these two can certainly score points in bunches
4) both teams are coming off big rivalry games last week where the defensive intensity was high and scoring was lower. its pretty normal for teams to be lax on the defensive end the next game or two they play after the rival. (duke vs. unc....then maryland comes to mind (99-92 final).....as does cincy vs. louisville...then charlotte (91-90 final). i think those two recent examples are noteworthy because duke and cincinnati are two of the nation's best defensive teams and, for as well as both teams are coached, even they weren't immune to defensive letdowns after their rivalry games.
5) i think this stat is very relevant, even though some could argue its too small a sample.
normally the mac is a tuesday/saturday or wednesday/saturday league. teams get used to that and settle into routines and schedules.
but the last few weeks, the conference threw a couples curveballs and had 3 quick turnaround games where teams played saturday and then came back 48 hours and played monday.
those three games were:
ball state 96 eastern michigan 86
bowling green 78 ohio 63
toledo 83 western michigan 77
i know the big 12 and the mountain west and big east teams all are used to the 2 gms in 3 days. but i dont think mac teams are. and while akron got the weekend off, i definitely think were gonna see some weaker defense from toledo
there it is boys. feel free to play it. feel free to fade it. but definitely a big play for me. feel like i definitely capped the first two big plays this year correctly. and feel like i found a good spot here too. we'll see if thats the case at about 10pm tonight.
(contingent on the number being < 145)
considering my other two significant plays in the horizon/mac this year have been up by 17 and 21 at halftime only to stumble in the later stages, maybe the 1h over is the way to go.
gonna be in and out throughout the course of the day, but if for some unexpected reason this total is higher than 145 (which i very highly doubt) then im gonna scale it back to a normal play. but i think we're probably looking at 141 or 142 for the opener, and i expect the game itself to play well into the 150s.
as for the reasoning:
1) its taken until damn near the middle of february but toledo is FINALLY starting to play up to their preseason expectations. theyve won 5 of their L6 and have played themselves into a tie for first in the western side of the conference. its like a collective lightbulb finally went on for these clowns.
2) when toledo was playing like dog shit earlier, they werent getting to the line and they were taking way too many jump shots. its no coincidence that theyve during their 5 of 6 streak, they are getting to the free throw line a lot more, and when they DO get there, they are knocking them down at a very high rate (81.6% as a team the last 5 games)
3) the first meeting between these two was a 70-59 final, but i really dont even consider that worth factoring in all that much because it was akron's first game after losing wood to the season-ending injury. once they adjusted to playing without him, akron ended up scoring 75+ pts in 4 of the next 5 games. last years meeting was 87-79, so these two can certainly score points in bunches
4) both teams are coming off big rivalry games last week where the defensive intensity was high and scoring was lower. its pretty normal for teams to be lax on the defensive end the next game or two they play after the rival. (duke vs. unc....then maryland comes to mind (99-92 final).....as does cincy vs. louisville...then charlotte (91-90 final). i think those two recent examples are noteworthy because duke and cincinnati are two of the nation's best defensive teams and, for as well as both teams are coached, even they weren't immune to defensive letdowns after their rivalry games.
5) i think this stat is very relevant, even though some could argue its too small a sample.
normally the mac is a tuesday/saturday or wednesday/saturday league. teams get used to that and settle into routines and schedules.
but the last few weeks, the conference threw a couples curveballs and had 3 quick turnaround games where teams played saturday and then came back 48 hours and played monday.
those three games were:
ball state 96 eastern michigan 86
bowling green 78 ohio 63
toledo 83 western michigan 77
i know the big 12 and the mountain west and big east teams all are used to the 2 gms in 3 days. but i dont think mac teams are. and while akron got the weekend off, i definitely think were gonna see some weaker defense from toledo
there it is boys. feel free to play it. feel free to fade it. but definitely a big play for me. feel like i definitely capped the first two big plays this year correctly. and feel like i found a good spot here too. we'll see if thats the case at about 10pm tonight.
