Ore-Georgia Lines..
- Thread starter ejthree
- Start date
Just one mans opinion, but Georgia is Bama from 5-10 years ago and vice versa. Just as UGA could always keep it close and give us fans that false hope at halftime, ultimately the depth of Bama always won out. Roles are now reversed and I see the same thing happening. Tied or small Bama lead at half and UGA grinds out a td win in the second half leaving the Bama +5 ticket holders wondering how the hell they didn't cash. As for total, if I was going to play the over, it would be the 1st half. One of the best things this defensive staff does is make in-game and halftime adjustments. They do give up some points early though. I have yet to play anything personally, but I am leaning Bama plus the points in the first half. Will double up with UGA in 2nd if that hits. Will get ugly if Bama cant keep it close early.
The trend where the lower seed team is favored over the higher ranked team, I don't see the trend following in the championship games for Conference play, especially since this game is at a neutral site, Las Vegas. I still feel Penix is better than Nix, I'll never be a Nix fan, especially since he's one of the oldest players in the NCAA this year, LOL!!
Florida St line really steamed down from -6 1/2 down to -2, backup for Travis faced a shitty Florida team, L'ville has some talent on "D" although they didn't show it vs Kentucky, just feel L'ville will win this one SU!!
We shall see with a few days left.
Florida St line really steamed down from -6 1/2 down to -2, backup for Travis faced a shitty Florida team, L'ville has some talent on "D" although they didn't show it vs Kentucky, just feel L'ville will win this one SU!!
We shall see with a few days left.
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yeah, that line on oregon is crazy. when they played 7 weeks ago, washington was about a 3-pt fav at home. so, in theory, they're about even on a neutral field. well, here we are. and the line is far from even. sure, washington isn't dominating teams but, to your point, they keep winning. insane that oregon is now rated 9 points better.
i agree with bill... i like penix more than nix.
that said, the line is very telling. i think if nix can avoid fucking up early, oregon will probably roll. their defense is the difference. they give up 307 yards/game. washington gives up 400.
in the first matchup, oregon outgained them 541 - 415. if they can put up 541 at washington... it'll be interesting to see what they can do when they don't have to deal with a loud stadium.
in the SEC... i think we have two HUGE variables at QB. no idea how either will perform on this stage. two things stood out when looking at their stats... they had nearly identical TD & INT #s, but beck has 132 more ATT. so beck is throwing INTs at a much lower rate, but also TDs at a much lower rate. I'd guess the INT# will be the bigger factor saturday. the other stat that jumped out at me... again, beck threw 132 more passes... but milroe took 34 sacks. beck only took 8. these numbers don't include how many times milroe dropped back to pass, but ended up running, so not an EXACT figure... but just based on his ATT and his sacks... milroe was sacked one of every 8 times he dropped back. kinda crazy. but georgia only averages 2 sacks/game, and you know teams had to throw a lot against them. so that will be interesting to watch. will they put any pressure on milroe?
full disclosure... i've watched VERY little of either team this year. from what i saw of beck, he did not look like a guy who was ready to win the SEC. however, that was early in the season. it's certainly possible that he's improved since then.
ok, one more thing i noticed... and this surprised me... neither team is good at stopping the run this year. alabama gives up 3.8 yards/carry and georgia... *double check to make sure this is correct*... gives up 4.0 yards/carry. very mediocre numbers for teams that normally allow about 3 yards/carry. georgia has the better ground game, so maybe an advantage there.
i kinda wanna see alabama win, just for the chaos with the playoffs. if they win, do they leap over FSU, the loser of the pac12 championship, and TEXAS??? could alabama go 12-1, win the SEC, and NOT make the playoffs? seems crazy.
i agree with bill... i like penix more than nix.
that said, the line is very telling. i think if nix can avoid fucking up early, oregon will probably roll. their defense is the difference. they give up 307 yards/game. washington gives up 400.
in the first matchup, oregon outgained them 541 - 415. if they can put up 541 at washington... it'll be interesting to see what they can do when they don't have to deal with a loud stadium.
in the SEC... i think we have two HUGE variables at QB. no idea how either will perform on this stage. two things stood out when looking at their stats... they had nearly identical TD & INT #s, but beck has 132 more ATT. so beck is throwing INTs at a much lower rate, but also TDs at a much lower rate. I'd guess the INT# will be the bigger factor saturday. the other stat that jumped out at me... again, beck threw 132 more passes... but milroe took 34 sacks. beck only took 8. these numbers don't include how many times milroe dropped back to pass, but ended up running, so not an EXACT figure... but just based on his ATT and his sacks... milroe was sacked one of every 8 times he dropped back. kinda crazy. but georgia only averages 2 sacks/game, and you know teams had to throw a lot against them. so that will be interesting to watch. will they put any pressure on milroe?
full disclosure... i've watched VERY little of either team this year. from what i saw of beck, he did not look like a guy who was ready to win the SEC. however, that was early in the season. it's certainly possible that he's improved since then.
ok, one more thing i noticed... and this surprised me... neither team is good at stopping the run this year. alabama gives up 3.8 yards/carry and georgia... *double check to make sure this is correct*... gives up 4.0 yards/carry. very mediocre numbers for teams that normally allow about 3 yards/carry. georgia has the better ground game, so maybe an advantage there.
i kinda wanna see alabama win, just for the chaos with the playoffs. if they win, do they leap over FSU, the loser of the pac12 championship, and TEXAS??? could alabama go 12-1, win the SEC, and NOT make the playoffs? seems crazy.
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The committee will have their hands full if Bama wins and if that happens I see it this way...
Mich #1 Bama #2 Oregon #3 Georgia #4... No way they keep Georgia out going for a 3-Peat... Going to be Chaos and what a perfect season to have a 8 team playoff...
imagine the whining coming from Austin if that happens? and they'd have a legitimate gripe. what's the point of scheduling a top-ten OOC opponent if it's not going to matter?
but i don't see how you'd keep bama out if they win this game. i think you could make an argument for texas over either pac12 team. well, at least over oregon.
and i really hope FSU loses. they don't belong in the playoffs with a backup qb. maybe not fair, but no way are they one of the 4 best teams without travis. probably not even with travis.
so glad they're finally going to 12 teams next year. they probably would have been ok if they just did 8 teams, but 12 is a lot better than 4.
I think Louisville could definitely win the game, even if Florida St starting QB was playing; but are the zebras going to let them? Card's chance of making the final 4 is slim and none after losing to Kentucky and Florida St is undefeated. So the Seminoles are the ACC only chance to get in the final 4. Louisville's weak spot is QB play, average at best. I would have probably taken Louisville if they had beaten Kentucky, but will probably pass now.
If Texas and Bama win, Texas should be in, they won head to head. Assuming Florida State and Washington lose. I hope for complete chaos. Next year it will be a 12 team playoff and nobody can bitch and complain
funny thing is, we all know #13 will whine. but the proper response to them will always be "STFU. You have no business being anywhere near the NC game."
If Bama and Texas and Oregon and Lville all win... I think it might look like this:
1 - Michigan
2 - Texas
3 - Alabama
4 - Oregon
*Sorry Georgia, but after squeaking past GTech last week, only 1 team goes from SEC.. and it's whoever wins on 12/2.
*How can u keep Texas out after beating Bama @ Bama? I don't think u can... and I think Texas is 4th best team in the group.
I think Texas got worse as the season progressed.. squeaking past Houston, getting very lucky v Kans St, squeaking past TCU doesn't impress.
*Think Mich is not as good as their record shows.. another year of playing the Big 10 'plodders' wk in wk out doesn't help them prepare to face an Oregon squad with all kinds of speed and talent.
*Alabama's QB improved over the season, not sure about their defense (Texas bombed em all game).. they'll give up lots of points.
*Fla St may be starting a freshman QB in tomorrow's game.. I don't think Fla St belongs in the playoffs even if they find a way to win tomorrow... missing your star QB counts.
*My 'Eye Test" says that Oregon is capable of beating ANY of these teams (inc GA) and has a better run game than Wash.. not sure about 10 pts, but gimme Oregon ML fo sho in some parlays/teasers
*Ga/Ala OVER (1H Over also) I love.. talented skill players and play design and Alabama's qb can run like the wind..
I don't see any stifling defenses this year ~ points points points
LoB
1 - Michigan
2 - Texas
3 - Alabama
4 - Oregon
*Sorry Georgia, but after squeaking past GTech last week, only 1 team goes from SEC.. and it's whoever wins on 12/2.
*How can u keep Texas out after beating Bama @ Bama? I don't think u can... and I think Texas is 4th best team in the group.
I think Texas got worse as the season progressed.. squeaking past Houston, getting very lucky v Kans St, squeaking past TCU doesn't impress.
*Think Mich is not as good as their record shows.. another year of playing the Big 10 'plodders' wk in wk out doesn't help them prepare to face an Oregon squad with all kinds of speed and talent.
*Alabama's QB improved over the season, not sure about their defense (Texas bombed em all game).. they'll give up lots of points.
*Fla St may be starting a freshman QB in tomorrow's game.. I don't think Fla St belongs in the playoffs even if they find a way to win tomorrow... missing your star QB counts.
*My 'Eye Test" says that Oregon is capable of beating ANY of these teams (inc GA) and has a better run game than Wash.. not sure about 10 pts, but gimme Oregon ML fo sho in some parlays/teasers
*Ga/Ala OVER (1H Over also) I love.. talented skill players and play design and Alabama's qb can run like the wind..
I don't see any stifling defenses this year ~ points points points
LoB
This. I think that's why none of these teams stand out to me this year. Defense wins championships, but I don't see any great ones. Normally you can count on Alabama and Georgia to have a dominant defense, especially against the run. Not this year. You could certainly make an argument for Michigan, but they may be flattered by an awful Big 10.
This is one of the few years that I think it truly is wide open. We could actually see a non-SEC team win it.
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Mich and Oregon if they win are live and of the two I prefer Oregon because they can score and score. Going to be a cluster fuck if Bama wins…
