Patriots-Dolphins: Who has the edge?

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Chad Henne looks for rare consecutive wins against Bill Belichick's struggling defense

--Miami Herald

Dolphins running game vs. Patriots run defense

The Wildcat has been all too mild this season. Last week it produced just 6 yards of offense, plus another 25 yards in blocking penalties. Overall, the Dolphins' running game has dropped to 15th in the league after ranking fourth last season. The Dolphins will be without rookie right guard John Jerry for the second consecutive game due to illness and veteran backup Pat McQuistan struggled in his place last week in making his first career start. The Patriots rank 20th against the run, despite a strong middle triangle (NT Vince Wilfork and ILBs Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes).

Edge: Dolphins

Dolphins passing game vs. Patriots pass defense

Chad Henne is coming off a career-best 363 passing yards against the Jets, but his final pass resulted in his first interception in 93 attempts this year. A young Patriots secondary has slumped to 25th against the pass, making even Buffalo backup Ryan Fitzpatrick look dangerous last week. Brandon Marshall matched the second-highest reception yardage of his career with 166 yards (on 10 catches) against the Jets. He'll have at least a 5-inch height advantage on New England's corners. Last year, he helped the Broncos beat New England (eight catches, 64 yards, 2 TDs). Backup CB Terrence Wheatley (foot) is out and 2009 second-rounder Darius Butler is slumping.

Edge: Dolphins

Patriots running game vs. Dolphins run defense

The Dolphins, still missing run-stuffer Channing Crowder (doubtful) and rookie defensive end Jared Odrick (out), have been gashed two weeks running. Vikings star Adrian Peterson ran for a Tony Sparano era-worst 145 yards in Week 2. Last week it was the Jets' three-headed monster averaging 5.0 yards per carry and piling up 146 yards, 90 of them at the edges of the defense. The Patriots rank 10th in the NFL in rushing and will rely on third-year RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (4.5 yard average) with veteran Fred Taylor out with a toe injury.

Edge: Patriots

Patriots passing game vs. Dolphins pass defense

CB Jason Allen has a shoddy history against WR Randy Moss (three TDs, 15.4-yard average this season), so look for the Dolphins to flip their corners to let Vontae Davis follow him around (as he did in last year's second meeting). Tom Brady has had some clunkers against the Dolphins through the years but ranks third this year in third-down passing efficiency. Valuable checkdown weapon Kevin Faulk (torn ACL) is out for the year, but Jets castoff Danny Woodhead has filled in well. Brady has been sacked just twice this year, while the Dolphins managed just one hit (no sacks) on Mark Sanchez last week.

Edge: Patriots

Dolphins special teams vs. Patriots special teams

The Patriots rank fifth in the league in kickoff returns behind Brandon Tate, who is averaging 29.9 yards per return. The Dolphins are 29th in kickoff coverage and dumped linebacker Erik Walden, a core special-teamer for them since 2008, after his mistake led to a blocked punt last week. Davone Bess and Patrick Cobbs, both safe but unspectacular, have gone back to returning punts and kickoffs. New England is fourth in the league in punt coverage.

Edge: Patriots

Intangibles

No Dolphins quarterback has consecutive wins vs. New England since Jay Fiedler took three straight in 2000-01 at the start of the Bill Belichick era. Henne, who led a comeback victory from an early 14-0 hole last December in South Florida, is trying to end that drought. Both teams have a loss to the Jets, so Monday's game takes on additional importance within the division. Both teams head into a bye week after this game, and the loser falls into third place in the division.

Edge: Dolphins

 

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What to watch for Monday against the Dolphins


--WEEI

Here are 10 things worth keeping an eye on in Monday?s matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins:

Randy Moss on Vontae Davis: The best individual matchup of the night. In the first contest between the two teams last year, Moss was dominant, catching six passes for 147 yards and a touchdown in a 27-17 win. But the Illinois product, then a rookie, evened the score the second time around. After getting scorched for a 58-yard touchdown in the first quarter, he limited Moss to just one more catch (a meaningless eight-yard gain) and came away with an interception in a 22-21 Dolphins victory.

?Just to be out there competing against him, holding my own, it gave me the mind-set that I could play in this league,?? Davis told the Miami Herald this week when asked about last year?s meetings with Moss. ?I can be pretty good in this league. That?s just a really good feeling. I just thanked God to have the opportunity.?

Forgetting Brandon Marshall: The Patriots will try and get physical with Marshall, their leading receiver and one of the best in the league in a variety of statistical departments. That likely means a heavy dose of their most physical corner, rookie Devin McCourty. McCourty has shown willingness to body up against receivers ? for more on that, click here ? but he faces a real test with the Pro Bowl receiver, who loves the physical game.

?Yeah, I try and match up and be physical with receivers, especially with him. If you?re not physical, he?ll just dominate you,? McCourty said. ?Hopefully, my physical abilities will help me.?

?With his size and speed and ability to catch the ball, I know he?s having a great year,? Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said of Marshall. ?He?s had a good season. They?ve got a good group of receivers, so hopefully we find a way to limit what they are able to do. But that?s been challenging for teams this year. They?ve got a very good offense.?
This season, through three games, it?s more of the same: the Patriots are outscoring opponents 55-29 in the first half, but are being outscored 53-35 after the half through three games. In its only road game of the year, New England had a good first half, but an 18-0 second-half shutout set the stage for a 28-14 loss to the Jets in East Rutherford. It?ll take 60 minutes of football to beat the Dolphins.

Special teams: New England?s special teams unit, which had started the year on a strong note, stumbled last week against the Bills. Zoltan Mesko had the worst of his three outings, punting three times and averaging 37.7 yards per boot, while Buffalo kick returner C.J. Spiller ran one back 95 yards. In addition, while kicker Stephen Gostkowski is delivering some excellent kickoffs, he?s only 2-for-5 on field goal attempts. A standout performance on special teams would go a long way toward picking up a struggling defense.

Arrington vs. Butler: With Butler in the doghouse after his poor performance the week before against the Jets, it was Arrington who saw most of the time at left corner last week against the Bills. (Butler ended up playing four defensive snaps.) Publicly, Butler wasn?t bitter about what happened, but right now, Arrington will likely draw the start Monday against the Dolphins.

?This is a production business, and if you?re not producing, you?re not going to be on the field on Sunday,? Butler shrugged Wednesday. ?I guess my play wasn?t up to par, and I wasn?t on the field, and that?s obviously where I want to be. So I have to do whatever it takes to get back on there.?

Keeping an eye out

for the Wildcat: It?s not the weapon it used to be for Miami ? according to Dolphins writer Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post, the Dolphins have run it just 14 times, this season (with one wiped out due to penalty) and have gained a total of 24 yards (1.71 per play). But Belichick and the Patriots are expecting at least some of it Monday night.

?They use it every week, so I think its part of their offense,? Belichick said. ?They have a different version of it each week; they change the formation or the look or they give you a different look on it. ... I think it?s still there. I think every team is going to see it and probably depending on how well they do or don?t do against it, you get more or less of it.

Patriots pass-rush ? up the middle or outside: Over the first three games, New England has been getting good pressure up the middle, with Vince Wilfork and Gerard Warren causing more disruption in the pocket than the Patriots? outside linebackers. In addition, the Patriots were able to show some different blitzing schemes early last week against the Bills, getting safety Brandon Meriweather and inside linebacker Jerod Mayo free to get after the quarterback. Wouldn?t be shocked to see more of that on Monday.

One point worth noting is when the Patriots and Dolphins met last season, New England moved Wilfork to end to match up with massive Dolphins tackle Jake Long. It?s worth keeping an eye out for some of this Monday evening.

How the Dolphins defend the tight ends: Miami has struggled to defend tight ends since the start of the 2009 season ? according to ESPN?s ace AFC East blogger Tim Graham, tight ends accumulated a nice stat line against Miami last year: 68 receptions for 993 yards and four touchdowns. Through three games in 2010, opposing tight ends are on pace to catch 69 passes for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns against the Dolphins. In that same stretch, Aaron Hernandez has 13 catches for a team-high 211 yards, while fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski has five catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns. (Combined, they form more than one-third of the numbers New England has compiled in the passing game.)

Look for the Patriots to do everything possible to try and exploit this matchup, a clear advantage.

?The two rookies ? they?re doing some good things,? Brady said of Hernandez and Gronkowski. ?They have to do better things, too. We all do. We?re expected to. They?ve made some nice catches. They?re going to need to. If they?re open, they?re going to catch it. They?ve been in a position to catch balls, so I throw it to them.?

Run to daylight: It?s not like the Patriots are going to try and become a run-first team, but with Fred Taylor out for the game, it?ll be BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Sammy Morris who will get the bulk of the carries for New England. Green-Ellis looked solid last week against the Bills, accounting for 98 of the 200 rushing yards the Patriots were able to compile. Don?t look for the Patriots to lean too much on its running game ? instead, they are hoping they can do just enough to keep the Dolphins? defense honest.

In addition, they will rely more on changeup back Danny Woodhead to take many of the snaps that previously went to Kevin Faulk, while Thomas Clayton should also provide depth in the same way that Green-Ellis did in previous seasons, at least for the time being.



Avoiding the Miami blues: Tom Brady is 10-6 in his career against the Dolphins, but just 3-5 in South Florida, and has suffered some of the most agonizing losses of his career in Miami. (Click here to revisit the trail of tears.)

While there have been great victories for the Patriots in South Florida ? 2007 and 2008 come to mind ? there have been more bad losses than stirring wins: New England has lost 15 of the 23 games the two teams have played at Dolphins/Pro Player/Joe Robbie/Sun Life Stadium since the facility first opened in 1987.

?I don?t think we?ve played particularly well [in Miami]. Certainly in the early part of my career, we got beat quite a bit down there. There was a long streak for a long time that we hadn?t won down there,? Brady said.

?I think what it means is that there?s not a lot of margin for error down there. So as an offense, I think we have to understand that they have a very good defense and they play well at home. So, you?re right, it?s a tough contest for us every time we go down there, every time we play those guys.?
Second-half struggles: We?re beating a dead horse here, but the Patriots continue to struggle to close out opponents in the third and fourth quarter, especially on the road. In 2009, New England outscored opponents, 282-136 in the first half of games. They were outscored by their foes 149-145 in the second half and overtime, which led to road losses in New York, Indianapolis, Denver and Miami.

 

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Matchups Of The Week ? Patriots At Dolphins

--Patroits Daily


A disastrous loss to the hated New York Jets, then followed by a less-then-stellar victory against the lowly Buffalo Bills, has left Patriots fans scratching their heads. So far, all the preseason talking points are playing out just as we had feared: The offense is phenomenal but the secondary, while talented, clearly needs more seasoning and there is no real pass rush to speak of.

There has, however, always been a second part to these talking points, which was that come week eight or nine the young Patriots team will gel and mature to the point where they can win on the road against formidable opponents. Since this season?s roadmap has so far fallen into place, Patriots fans can hold out hope especially if there is a win against Miami in store. In order for that to happen, look for the Patriots to get the upper hand in these 5 matchups:


1. Brandon Marshall vs. Patriots Cornerbacks

Brandon Marshall is one of best receivers in the game, he is big, fast, runs great routes and has soft hands and is sure to dominate any corner that the Patriots throw at him. Surely New England will compensate with Safety help over the top. The hope is that the young defense can slow Marshall on key third down conversions, enough to stall Miami drives and hand the ball back over to the Patriots.

2. Miami Wildcat vs. Patriots Linebackers

Miami is considered the best in the business at the Wildcat, and two years ago infamously shredded the Patriots defense at Gillette causing fans to boo the likes of Bruschi, Seymour and Vrabel. These days, New England should be much better prepared; it?s now just a matter of execution.

3. Gronkowski and Hernandez vs. Miami Secondary

Another week has gone by, and the young pups are still producing and exciting Patriot Nation every time they touch the ball. It will be great to see them continue wrecking havoc in the secondary and breaking linebacker?s ankles.

4. Randy Moss vs. Vontae Davis

Despite his off the field gripes about not feeling loved, Randy Moss is having a pretty stellar season so far. The knock on Randy is that when the going gets tough, Randy starts to shut it down. He responded to critics by busting out of Revis Island with a spectacular one-handed touchdown grab. This week, Randy will face Vontae Davis, a good young corner and it is crucial to see that Randy takes the same serious approach to the game as he did against the Jets.

5. BenJarvis Green-Ellis vs. Miami Linebackers

Radio callers have been clamoring for the Law Firm ever since his first preseason game. Now it looks like they will get their wish.