PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM.....

Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to beat Matt Gogel -111 @ BetandWin
Looking to oppose Gogel who has struggled to make the cut since winning this title and has finished in the top-30 just four times in the past year (26 starts). Defending for the first time, this should be pressure that he will find too overbearing. Choi cannot boast the same record in this event, but his form in the last five months have been excellent and he is the far better player.

John Rollins to beat Matt Gogel -111 @ Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
Rollins can boast a top-15 finish in last year's event and has yet to miss a cut since he won the Canadian Open last year (11 starts). He has shot every round under-par in his three events so far this season and should finish in the top-30 again, which should be easily enough to extend his h2h record against Gogel to 15-5-0 over the past year.

Scott McCarron to beat Pat Perez -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing last year's runner-up again. It really is staggering to recall that he should have won easily last year but when out of bounds twice and into the water once in the last three holes. No wonder he will be glad when this week is over! McCarron's record in this event is far from stellar, but he has only missed one cut in twelve starts and has failed to break par in only one of thirteen rounds this year. Can probably rely on Perez to self-destruct in this one.
 

Chadman

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Hope I can play with you guys...just looking for some like-minded punters to share some thoughts with. Mine are a tad off the beaten path, as you will see...Thanks for the interaction, and best of luck at Pebble.

Outrights:
1* Duval +1500 (Yes, THAT Duval...)
1* Furyk +1500
1* Kelly +1800
1* Mediate +2500
1/2* Couples +4000 (should be 40,000, probably, BUT)
1/2* Field +230 (this will cover my Bam-Bam bet... )

I think Duval will experience a resurgence this season, and I think it will happen sooner than later. Last week we saw some nice rounds wrapped around one bad one, and I think that if Dave is playing well for the most part, it won't take much to get him back on track. I'll play him for a few weeks and see what happens. Jerry Kelly looks like my best play for the weekend, and I will call for his win this weekend. Talented, in good form, and a top 10 tour pro right about now. Furyk and Mediate are two players in terrific form right now, and are being quickly diminished in the betting pool. Both are worth a unit in my opinion, and are capable of winning in this Pro-Am format. Couples is a reach, but well-suited to the course and format for anything at +400 and up, in my opinion. Playing the field also this week, as I am a bit superstitious about going a long time between outright winners, no matter how small.

Matchups:
2** Kelly -1.10 over Weir
2** Furyk -1.15 over Weir
1* Couples +1.10 over Lehman
1* Kelly +1.15 over Love
1* K. Perry -1.05 over McCarron
1* Sabbatini -1.15 over Gamez

My outright plays kind of have a theme that mirrors my outright plays. I am betting against Weir as a last-week champion who should fade after the gloss wears off. Backing Kelly twice as I think he is top five this week. Taking a shot with Couples at this venue against Lehman, who is better in other events. I like Sabbatini in this format much more than Gamez who can rattle easily in odd suroundings like a Pro-Am. I have personally seen him in tourneys with amateurs around him, and he seems really put off by it all. Finally, not convinced McCarron is in good form this season, and Perry can get the job done on this type of course.

Very late this week with the posts and ideas. Still do not have a beneficial out odds-wise for golf, and will be undertaking that soon. So, we suffer through the Don Best offerings for another week.
 

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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As usual, beggging, borrowing and stealing most of the plays here :D

Outrights (1/2 e/w): Furyk 22-1, Kelly 25-1, Sabbatini 50-1

72 hole matchups:

Played almost all of Stan's and Wayne's so no point in repeating them here...added these..

Sabbatini o Byrd -111
Sabbatini o Gogel -105
Tataurangi o Gogel -110
Tataurangi o Triplett +100
Choi o Roberts -110
Rollins o Sutherland -105


GL all :)
 

warner

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pebble

pebble

great tournament last week was able to attend last two days and watched a great finish and a good win m.weir looks to be back on track this year after so so year last season
won again last week 175 so up 292 for the year
choi 0 byrd 435/300
lehman 0 coyples 270/200
mediate 0 triplett 170/150
triplett 0 kendall 255/150
love 0 kelly 140/100
love 0 fuyrk 135/100
pampling 0 petrovic 120/100
rollins 0 k sutherland 125/100
hart 0 pampling 100/105
herron 0 perez 105/100
i hope the heavy juice on the large plays dont come back and kill me but thought i would extend myself a liitle this week
 

He Hate Me

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Long hitters like DL3 and singh will like these conditions, not the usual lift clean place but hard pan fairways so look for some eagles and lots of birds on the 5's;)
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Gonna pass on 1st rds. Been scouting for past hour even WSEX with their 1/2 stroke offered very little in my way of thinking.Did find one bright spot that I will look to tomorrow but got there to late today as lines have took their adjustments and that is $plays.
They had several 1st rd matches and were only book I found to mix courses.Looked for matches with players at Spyglass (the tougher of the 3 in my view) vs other courses and found 3 however did not like odds or matches. Hart-Weir-and Kutchar are playing at Spyglass and pitted against those at other courses.
I think last year stats on courses can be thrown out as PH and SG had lift clean and place where PB did not so stats will be severely tainted,however 2001 had almost exact weather projected for this week and here is top 20 finishers in case anyone is interested. Will be peeking at $plays tomorrow hopefully before lines are adjusted to see if they follow suit.
==============================================
AT&T Pebble Beach 2001 Go Back | Navigation Tips New Search TOURNAMENT HISTORY PGA TOUR LPGA TOUR SENIOR PGA BUY.COM EUROPEAN THE MAJORS

Year Player Finish To Par Score Dollars
2001 Davis Love III Win -16 71-69-69-63 = 272 720,000.00
2001 Vijay Singh 2 -15 66-68-70-69 = 273 432,000.00
2001 Phil Mickelson T-3 -13 70-66-66-73 = 275 232,000.00
2001 Olin Browne T-3 -13 68-69-65-73 = 275 232,000.00
2001 Ronnie Black 5 -12 67-68-70-71 = 276 160,000.00
2001 Craig Barlow T-6 -11 67-71-67-72 = 277 139,000.00
2001 Glen Day T-6 -11 68-75-69-65 = 277 139,000.00
2001 Jerry Kelly T-8 -10 69-68-68-73 = 278 112,000.00
2001 Mike Weir T-8 -10 70-70-65-73 = 278 112,000.00
2001 Frank Nobilo T-8 -10 70-70-67-71 = 278 112,000.00
2001 Franklin Langham T-8 -10 70-70-70-68 = 278 112,000.00
2001 Scott McCarron 12 -9 68-73-65-73 = 279 92,000.00
2001 Brad Faxon T-13 -8 71-67-69-73 = 280 68,571.43
2001 Tiger Woods T-13 -8 66-73-69-72 = 280 68,571.43
2001 Kenny Perry T-13 -8 70-70-69-71 = 280 68,571.42
2001 Kirk Triplett T-13 -8 71-69-70-70 = 280 68,571.43
2001 Tim Herron T-13 -8 67-70-74-69 = 280 68,571.43
2001 Mike Springer T-13 -8 72-70-71-67 = 280 68,571.43
2001 Grant Waite T-13 -8 70-73-71-66 = 280 68,571.43
2001 David Berganio, Jr. T-20 -7 64-73-71-73 = 281 48,266.67
2001 Willie Wood T-20 -7 67-69-73-72 = 281 48,266.66
2001 Kevin Sutherland T-20 -7 72-69-70-70 = 281 48,266.67
 

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
OUTRIGHTS:

Davis Love(16/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
An opportunity of his own making is coming and he is putting well.

Pat Perez(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
I'm not looking to feature him in any even money matchups, and some of his comments coming in are other than what I would usually like to hear, but my catechism tells me that it will be no surprise at all if he becomes a fixture in this event, and less than a 50/1 shocker if there is some sustained inspiration in his play on the peninsula this week.

Lee Janzen(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
A gangsome of players, from Singh and Kelly and Furyk, to Gossett and Clark and Sutherland and Couples (and several others) were under serious consideration this week. But I've been satisfied enough with my early season hunches being in the neighborhood so as to take some real chances again this week, and this is the selection I would be kicking myself over if it panned out and I was not on board.

Corey Pavin(175/1) for 0.30* e.w. @ 5dimes
I have him pegged for a fiesty effort this week.

MATCHUPS:

Mediate(-110) over Duval (Tournament - Ties Lose) for 1* @ Bet365

Lost as I am, what I want as much as anything this week is merely to see that the cypress transplant is quickly restoring the glory of the 18th hole at Pebble Beach as the finest closing hole in the game and a strong contender for the best hole on the face of the earth, and then the travesty of last year can fade quickly from my memory.

GL
 

Stanley

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Here's the scoring summary from Rd1:

Average score:

Pebble - 72.93
Spyglass - 73.86
Poppy - 74.37

No. of players under par:

Pebble - 21
Spyglass - 12
Poppy - 14

This has me totally baffled. Poppy Hills is normally a shot easier than the other two - it has an extra par-5 for one good reason. But yesterday it was the hardest! Does anyone have any ideas why? I only watched the TV coverage 5 minutes at a time - there was too much coverage of the celebs for me - but I didn't see anything.

I tried to take advantage of Moneyplays' cross-course rd1 matchups yesterdays, i.e. siding with players playing at Poppy Hills against those not doing so. Needless to say I lost quite a bit on the day and it would have been a massacre had DL3 not rallied so well to shoot 72. Typical of the day was Gossett (my pick) having only to beat Kuchar's 78 and shooting 79 :mad:

:shrug: :nooo:
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Had me totally baffeled Stan. I watched it and can understand Pebble playing easy being short and void of its normal defense,wind--But I can't figure Poppy playing that tough.I know they had major renovations at PB after storms but didn't think PH was affected--and my 1st thought was maybe field at PH was weaker but that didn't pan out either.So I am clueless:shrug:

I hate this event from wagering and watching (as you said they give the ams all the airtime) buy gonna reluctantantly step out on 2 today.

Stadler +100 over Andrade @ 365 (ties lose)
Two dogs but going with Stadler solely on course form.

Kelly -105 over K Sutherland (- 1/2 stroke) @ Wsex
The better player against 1st rd leader.-138 at other places with ties lose so figure odds are bargain.
 

Stanley

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Only thing that I can find is a comment by Robert Gamez:

?Poppy Hills plays the easiest, but the greens can be tricky here,? Gamez said. ?The slopes here can be very rough on a player?s game ? especially right now, because everything is so dry and firm. Most of the golfers had been saying that: the greens and fairways are firm, and the ball just rolls.?

Sounds like the pins were put in some difficult positions yesterday at Poppy Hills and this was accentuated by hard, fast and sloping greens. Presumably, they will put the pins in more conservative areas today, which will a little unfair on my picks who played Poppy Hills first, but there may not be the scoring differential repeated today.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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adding 2nd rd @ Sia (Ties lose)
Todd Fischer +100 over Carl Petterrson

Fischer off Buy.com not that impressive but did finish 15 here last year despite bad 1st rd yesterday and has made 1 cut in 2 events this year with adj scoring ave of 70 and change. Main reason to go against Petterrson is despite no wind and hitting 70% of fairways only managed 44% of GIR's and if these were recorded accurately something is amiss.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Could we freeze this leader board with a hurricane next 2 days.:)

2nd rd results 1-2

Stadler +100 over Andrade @ 365 (ties lose) Win
Kelly -105 over K Sutherland (- 1/2 stroke) @ Wsex loss
Kelly throws in his worse rd since Aug 1997
Todd Fischer +100 over Carl Petterrson loss
Was an interesting match with never more than a stroke seperating them.

Will play same match @ 365 today (ties lose)
Stadler -110 over Andrade
Surely Andrade won't be too excited going into today +11

Will also repeat this little parlay there however after 2 days @ +162 they have finally dropped odds to +120 on Pavin vs Duval:lol:


Transaction Reference Number: : STG536487568511I

Selections

Event Date Event Selection Odds E/W Terms Result

1 07/02/2003 AT & T Pro Am: R2 16.50GMT(11.50ET) T1 Pebble Beach
(2 Balls) C Stadler
+100 To Win Won

2 07/02/2003 AT & T Pro Am: R2 17.00GMT(12.00ET) T10 Spyglass Hill
(2 Balls) C Pavin
+162 To Win Won

3 07/02/2003 AT & T Pro Am: R2 17.10GMT(12.10ET) T10 Poppy Hills
(2 Balls) F Lickliter II
+100 To Win Won

Parlays

Wager Type No of Bets Unit Risk Risk To Win Returns

3 Play Parlays 1 10.00 10.00 95.00 105.00
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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only wanted to play one match but can't let this one pass win or lose.

Stankowski -105 over Lewis @ 5dimes

Last three tourneys in common here are 2002-2000-1999
Stankowski 3 cuts made and Lewis has never made cut here in 5 attemps,more so insaid last 3 events here Lewis has never beat Stank in any rd(8-0-1), but did manage to beat him by 1 stroke 1st rd this year.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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at the cut 3rd rd 0-2 72 holes 2-0 with 2 pending

3rd rd
Stadler/Andrade loss by 2
Stankowski/Lewis loss by 2

72 holes
Furyk/Duval win by 15
Hart/Kuchar won by 13

pending
Furyk/Weir 2dn
McCarron/Perez 1 dn

Outright Sabbatina sitting in striking distance at 6th

4th rd
Was not even going to look today but had to peek at $plays and they oddly had just 2 matches setting there as an invitation from Murph to suck me in and they got me.
Furyk -130 over Lewis
Weir -130 over Lickliter
 

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
(A) Phil Tataurangi(+1600) to Show (Top 4) for 0.25* @ Olympic
Faxon and Clark are +500 from one stroke in front and Petrovic is +500 from one stroke back. Somewhat curious.

(B) Mike Weir(+100) to Show (Top 4) for 1* @ Olympic
I prefer this option to the odds and risks of any of my available head to head matchups, but I?m playing it for a full unit almost as though it were a group or matchup wager. Of all the players chasing Davis Love as he carries my outright wager, what Weir has in his tank scares me as much anyone.

(C) Tim Herron(-115) over Brad Faxon (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

(D) Gary Koch(-115) over Bobby Wadkins (3rd Round) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL
 
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