Odds and Ends:
1) Some good punters/cappers hold a strong opinion the majors are generally poor wagering opportunities, and those cappers often have a poor rate of success to reinforce their opinion. Recent successes for me with Lucas "Big Money" Glover and Ross Fisher at Bethpage, and Chris Wood at Turnberry continued a solid trend and belief for me in which the Masters, U.S. Open and British Open are among my most profitable events, and I can toss The Players in there as well. On the other hand, the P.G.A. Championship and "Glory's Last Shot" has been a singularly poor event for me over the years.
2) Playing with plenty of house money the rest of this year, and am about to shift my focus from golf to NFL and college football, so I'm not averse to making too many plays this week given I have too many ANGLES, although that rarely produces a big week for me, and especially so given my heretofore unprofitable results in prior P.G.A.s
3) My substantial experience with golf around the lakes and praries of Minnesota has me expecting the wind to be stronger than the initial forecasts being given for Thursday and Friday, and not surprised to see gusty expectations for the weekend.
4) On Monday my top play was
Jeff Quinney at any large price, and I went to the computer figuring it was about a 50/50 proposition on whether I would find him included in the field. Even after a run of 7 consecutive weeks, I'm still convinced Quinney would have done very well at Hazeltine, and would have been my headline/opening play.
Outrights:
Tiger Woods(+185) Win Only
- - Insurance against, and a larger piece of insurance than usual . . . I've twice been to majors at Medinah, and view it as ideally suited to The Striped One, with probably only St. Andrews being more so. I've twice been to majors at Hazeltine, and I can go through all the major championship venues since 1997 and think of no other venue that feels and plays like Medinah any more than Hazeltine . . . I saw nothing to suggest Tiger should be a prohibitive favorite at Turnberry, but his price is very justified this week, especially with all the trends which point at a player with a similar resume usually prevailing in recent stagings of the final major. However, it rarely means I look to swerve him and make plays only in markets in which he is excluded.
Adam Scott(125/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
- - That 25/1 Top ROW also looks big and also gets a small piece of my funds . . . Going back to my post before Scott finished 4th at Loch Lomond:
Adam Scott(45/1) e.w.
- - When it comes, I've expected his return to demonstrate his class, just been waiting. Tis a far, far better spot I see this week than at Turnberry.
. . . What this play most requires/anticipates is that the embarrassing start from Firestone suggests a 180 degree reversal (or 90 degrees at least) this Thursday. Thereafter, unlike many, should Tiger get in front and stay there, a win isn't required to leave with a feeling of a great P.G.A., which can include staying involved to earn a likely spot on the President's Cup team. And aren't Glover and Cink currently coached by Butch Harmon, for Scott to be on the receiving end of a tangible coaching inspiration and ANGLE there?
(I can't find the link I read earlier in which Scott talked about how his game held up nicely at Firestone despite more lousy putting amd a truly abysmal start.)
Scott's tips from putting master IBF - Golf - Sport - theage.com.au
Justin Rose(110/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6)
- - That 33/1 Top European also looks big and also gets a small piece of my funds . . . I seem to rember Justin at Hazeltine in 2002 better than he does, although he does have one significant memory to draw on: "I don't remember much about it but we'll see what's in store for us when I get there . . . the last event in which my Dad would see me play . . . I look down the range I can still see him standing there, watching me practise." I noted in a Sunday morning post at madjacks in 2002, "the putter still appears a little bulky, but Justin is playing well and still playing for a lot and thoroughly enjoying the moment." The Minnesota crowds took a liking to the pasty-skinned Limey kid playing in his first tournament in America, and Rose reciprocated. I've got to go with what I remember, and Rose can be inspired here, which would enhance further a reputation for his all-around game showing its class in the majors.
Justin Rose Tour Blog August 09
ASAP Sports - Golf - 2009 - WGC BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL - August 9 - Justin Rose
Justin Rose: Mixed memories of fresh battle with Hazeltine monster - Times Online
Robert Allenby(80/1) e.w.
- - " . . . the putter feels fantastic, it really does." I'm a sucker to believe any of that for even a second.
ASAP Sports - Golf - 2009 - WGC BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL - August 9 - Robert Allenby
Darren Clarke(550/1 to Win; 41/1 Top 5) e.w.
- - Invitee was brilliant for me at Firestone last year (although 6th), but too much to ask at Oaklland Hills with those fearsome greens. This year the storylines just get reversed, and I'm not throwing in the towel . . . Daft.
Darren Clarke's birthday wish - Golf, Sport - Belfasttelegraph.co.uk
Steve Stricker(33/1) e.w.
- - The neighbor from Wisconsin was my headline play for Bethpage, and fits the bill for "Glory's Last Shot."
Sergio Garcia(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
- - It didn't take the full 36 holes for me to conclude that Sergio would benefit, and gain some useful maturity or some perspective closely akin thereto, from playing with Tom Watson over the first two days at Turnberry. Whether something immediate comes from that experience isn't feeling as likely as it did a month ago, so this play has fallen in my hierarchy . . . And it's hard for me to keep up with these things, but Blimey, isn't Butch Harmon Sergio's coach, too?
Angel Cabrera(50/1) e.w.
- - More insurance against, as I think Cabrera has the only real shot to cross the finish line with a second major this year, and regardless of whom he might deny, I can think of no result whatsoever that would more sew up 2009 as providing the most flat and disappointing outcomes for the most potentially amazing storylines in a single year of majors (and I had "Big Money" Glover at Bethpage, but Mickelson was the one for the ages, with Duval offering a John Daly type stunner in his own right).
Sorting through one or two more . . .
Done.
Matchups:
Done.
GL
